The return of dividends and share buybacks will be a share price catalyst for the banking industry

Given the COVID-19 pandemic this year, major banks across the globe were urged to cut dividends and suspend share buybacks to conserve capital. However, in light of a potential vaccine roll-out in the near future, the likelihood of regulators lifting the dividend bans and share buyback suspensions has increased. We believe this will be a major share price catalyst for the banking industry.

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  • Published on 10 Dec 2020

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Major banks across the globe were urged to cut dividends and suspend share buybacks to conserve sufficient capital to weather through the COVID-19 pandemic. 

However, in light of a potential vaccine roll-out in the near future, we believe the likelihood of regulators lifting the various dividend bans and share buyback suspensions has increased.

Based on the major banks’ capital positions, it’s clear that they do have sufficient capital to restore payouts even after the significant rise in bad loans in 1H20.

While there may still be a possibility that regulators will extend curbs on dividends and buybacks, we believe that the resumption of these capital distribution plans is just a matter of time and could come as early as January 2021.

The return of dividends and share buybacks will be a major share price catalyst for the banking industry. Investors who wish to participate in this development can consider the iShares Global Financials ETF (NYSE:IXG).

Our fair PB of 1.1X translates to a 2022E target price of USD 72.1 and upside potential of 13.1%. 

Given the sudden widespread of the coronavirus that started early this year, regulators across the globe took several actions to ensure that banks conserve sufficient cash to weather through this pandemic-induced downturn. 

Most regulators urged the banks in their respective jurisdictions to cut dividends and suspend share buybacks. For some regions, the regulators requested the banks to implement more extreme measures, such as cutting all dividend distributions and share buybacks till at least 2021. 

However, in light of a potential vaccine roll-out in the near future, we believe the likelihood of regulators lifting the dividend bans and share buyback suspensions has increased. Such capital return programs have become an important factor for bank investors over the years, and we believe the resumption of dividends and share buybacks will be a major share price catalyst for the banking industry. 

Let us first take a look at the regulations imposed on some of the major banks over the last two quarters. 

Singapore banks 


Our three local banks have built up strong capital positions over the years, but nonetheless, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has called for the three local banks to cap their dividends as a pre-emptive measure to maintain their resilience amidst the uncertainties. This decision was announced in late July this year, during which the trio was requested to cap their FY2020 dividends per share (DPS) at 60% of their FY2019 DPS and offer their shareholders the option of receiving scrip dividends instead of cash.  

As Singapore recovers from the pandemic, we believe MAS will revisit its previous decision to cap dividends, especially when the three banks have ample capital buffers to maintain their dividends while sustaining lending to the economy (Table 1). Paying 2021 common dividends will shave off approximately 100bps to 110bps from the banks’ current CET1 capital base. Based on their current capital position, they clearly have adequate capital to resume their pre-COVID dividend levels. 

Table 1: Singapore banks’ capital position
CET1 Ratio Minimum CET1 ratio 2021 dividend yield* Actions from regulators
DBS (SGX:D05) 13.9% 9.1% 5.2% Dividends limited to 60% of the amount paid in 2019
OCBC (SGX:O39) 14.4% 9.1% 5.6%
UOB (SGX:U11) 14.0% 9.1% 5.6%
Source: Respective companies' 3Q20 reports
*2021 dividend yield will be calculated assuming dividends return to pre-COVID levels
Data as of November 2020


US banks


While the latest Fed stress test in June 2020 showed that most of the large US banks are well-prepared even in the most adverse economic scenarios, the Fed recognised the economic uncertainties that lie ahead and decided to take several actions to ensure that US banks remain resilient.  

The Fed previously announced that no share buybacks would be permitted in the third quarter. Banks were also not allowed to increase their third-quarter dividends above what they paid in the second quarter and were told to limit their dividends to an amount not exceeding their average net income in the last four quarters. This restriction was recently extended to 4Q20, and the Fed will most probably review its constraints on dividend payments and share buybacks for 2021 in the next few weeks. 

While any further extensions will definitely disappoint investors, a resumption in share buybacks will be an important catalyst for US banks as buybacks are the primary way through which they return capital to shareholders. In fact, JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) has indicated that it might resume buybacks in the fourth quarter if regulators allow it, suggesting that it is ready to resume its capital return program whenever the Fed gives the green light. 

Thanks to their strong quarterly earnings, JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America were able to continue their dividends in the last two quarters. As for Wells Fargo, it had to cut its dividends by almost -80% given the sheer amount of reserves it had to set aside in the 1H20. However, Well Fargo’s loan loss provisions have tapered off in 3Q20, and is expected to continue slowing down before returning to normal provision levels in the next 1 – 2 years.  Therefore, we believe Wells Fargo will be able to reinstitute its dividends to original levels when the Fed decides to remove the restrictions imposed on the banks. 

Table 2: US banks’ capital position
CET1 Ratio Minimum CET1 ratio 2021 dividend yield* Actions from regulators
JPM (NYSE:JPM) 13.9% 11.3% 3.0% Share buybacks suspension and capped dividends
Citigroup (NYSE:C) 14.4% 10.0% 3.6%
Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) 14.0% 9.5% 2.5%
Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) 11.4% 9.0% 3.6%
Source: Respective companies' 3Q20 reports
*2021 dividend yield is calculated assuming no dividend growth
Data as of November 2020

Based on the respective banks’ pre-COVID distribution levels, dividends paid will only affect the banks’ equity capital base by approximately 40bps to 70bps (Table 2). 

UK and European banks 


Finally, when it comes to capital distribution constraints, UK and European banks had it the hardest. Unlike the Fed or MAS, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) have chosen the most extreme measure of suspending both dividends and share buybacks. 

When the suspension of both dividends and shares buybacks was first announced in March, banks tumbled by about -14%, as measured by the MSCI Europe Banks Index. The banks fell by another -7% in July when both ECB and BoE decided to extend the suspension from October 2020 to January 2021.

The good news is that the ECB has recently indicated the possibility of a resumption in the banks' dividend payouts in 2021 if the lenders can prove their capital position strength and conservatism in their provisioning. The same goes for BoE, which has also said that it will assess the banks’ capital distribution plans in the 4Q20. 


Table 3: UK and European banks’ capital position
CET1 Ratio Minimum CET1 ratio 2021 dividend yield* Actions from regulators
HSBC (HKEX:5) 15.6% 9.5% 3.6% Suspension in both share buybacks and dividends
Standard Chartered 14.4% 9.5% 1.9%
Lloyds Bank 15.2% 9.0% 4.4%
BNP Paribas 12.6% 9.2% 3.5%
Banco Santander 12.0% 8.0% 3.3%
Source: Respective companies' 3Q20 reports
*2021 dividend yield is calculated based on 50% of pre-COVID distribution level
Data as of November 2020

Based on the respective European and UK banks’ capital positions, it’s clear that the banks do have sufficient capital to restore payouts even after the significant rise in bad loans in 1H20. 

When HSBC does resume its dividends, the management team has shared that they will likely be starting at a low pay-out ratio, allowing it to build over time. Using HSBC as an example, the other large UK banks may also adopt the same mentality and therefore, paying 2021 common dividends will shave off approximately 10bps to 60bps from the banks’ current CET1 capital base.

Dividends and share buybacks are likely to normalise in the next one to two years 


Given the rising odds of a COVID-19 vaccine, we believe this will drive an economic recovery across the globe, which should support the regulators’ decision to resume the various capital distribution plans. Besides, the majority of the global banks reported rather rosy 3Q20 results due to three factors: resilient revenue, a huge fall in provisions, and healthier capital ratios. This should further give regulators the confidence that the banks can start returning capital to shareholders. 

Share buybacks and dividends form an important component of a bank investor’s investment return. Therefore, we see the return of dividends and share buybacks as a major share price catalyst for the banking industry. Investors who wish to participate in this development can consider the iShares Global Financials ETF (NYSE:IXG). 

As of 8 December 2020, the US, UK, European, and Singapore banks make up slightly more than 30% of this ETF (Table 4).

Table 4: Components of the IXG ETF
Geography Weight
JPMorgan US 5.6%
Bank of America US 3.4%
Citigroup  US 1.8%
Wells Fargo US 1.8%
HSBC UK/HK 1.7%
BNP Paribas Europe 0.9%
Banco Santander Europe 0.7%
Lloyds Bank UK 0.5%
DBS Singapore 0.5%
OCBC Singapore 0.5%
UOB Singapore 0.4%
Standard Chartered UK/HK 0.2%
Other US banks: 5.8%
Other European/UK banks: 7.1%
Other global banks: 17.5%
Source: iShares, iFAST compilations
Data as of 8 December 2020

Our fair PB of 1.1X translates to a 2022E target price of USD 72.3 and upside potential of 12.2%. 


While there may still be a possibility that regulators will extend curbs on dividends and buybacks until there is greater clarity on the full impact of COVID-19, we believe that the resumption of these capital distribution plans is just a matter of time and could come as early as January 2021. Investors who wish to participate in this uptrend should wait no further. 

Declaration:

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) holds a NIL position in the abovementioned securities. The analyst who produced this report holds a position in iShares Global Financials ETF (NYSE:IXG).  

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