Cash is no longer king. Here’s how you can capitalise on the cashless payments opportunity.

The idea of a cashless society is no longer new. More consumers are demanding for “anytime, anywhere” form of payment services and the global pandemic is propelling a shift towards a cashless society faster than any event has ever done. Here is a long-term investment idea for you to capitalise on this fundamental shift in consumer behaviour.

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  • Published on 19 Sep 2020

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The idea of a cashless society is no longer new. Payments are going digital everywhere in the world as more consumers are demanding for “anytime, anywhere” form of payment services. 

We still see huge room for growth as smartphone and Internet penetration rates continue to grow. The shift in consumer behaviour accelerated by COVID-19 will also drive the digitalisation of consumption, further supporting the future earnings of payment companies. 

Having digital footprints will bring about many benefits to all stakeholders, which should provide great momentum for the further adoption of digital payment systems moving forward.

The most unique aspect of the digital payments ecosystem is that it has a network effect. The more users the payment ecosystem gains, the more valuable the services become, which makes the digital payment services indispensable in our modern world today. 

Investors who are looking for an opportunity that captures the shift from physical cash transactions to mobile and digital systems should consider investing in the ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF (NYSE:IPAY). 

Based on our fair PE of 25X, we arrived at our target price of USD 67.5, which translates to an upside potential of 24.8% by 2022.

Payments are going digital everywhere in the world. This trend may not be something new, but there has been an accelerating rate of adoption of digital payment systems, as more consumers are demanding for more “anytime, anywhere” forms of payment services. The global shift towards a cashless society will drive growth in demand for digital payment systems. 

The digital payments ecosystem is a rather complex network that consists of many players with different roles, including the banks, payment gateways, payment processors, card networks, and new payment companies that offer a digital platform for consumers. 

Here are some of the prominent players in the market:

Table 1: Prominent players in the digital payments ecosystem 
Companies Business description
VISA, Mastercard Card networks
Paypal, Square, Alipay Digital platform; provides payment gateway and payment processing services
JPMorgan, Bank of America Acquiring/Issuing bank
Global Payments, Fidelity National Information Svs Provides payment gateway and processing services
Source: iFAST compilations
Data as of September 2020

How the payment ecosystem works


There are many forms of digital payment systems that merchants and consumers can adopt, but they generally follow the same process. Imagine purchasing at a store using your credit card: while it only takes two seconds for the transaction to be approved, there is a lot of data transmission going on behind this one transaction (Chart 1). 

Chart 1: Simple illustration of the payment ecosystem


When a consumer makes a cashless transaction with the merchant, this transaction will be processed and the payment data will be transmitted by the processor through the payment gateway. The payment gateway is a software application that transmits data securely and authorises payments not only for physical-card transactions but also for online transactions.

The payment processors will then tap into the appropriate card networks, who will assist to verify and request authorisation for the payment to be processed. Finally, the issuing bank who represents the consumer will check if the consumer has enough credit to pay for the purchase and responds accordingly. This approval will be transmitted through the card network to the processor, who will then give the green light to authorise the transaction. Generally, all parties in this ecosystem will get a small cut of every transaction made.  

New payment companies like PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) and Square (NYSE:SQ) work the same way too, except that the payment process is usually be completed on their respective digital platforms. While they allow their customers to link their preferred bank cards to the digital platform, they also offer payment or funds transfer services for consumers/merchants without the need for bank cards. For such services, both the payer and the payee will be required to be on their platform. 

Speed and convenience have always been the top few priorities for consumers when it comes to payment services. As a consumer, we would rather tap our card or digital wallet to settle our purchases, instead of wasting that extra 20 seconds counting our cash. Consumers are also demanding for more payment methods and it has come to a point where if you make it difficult for them to use their preferred choice of payment method, they may postpone their purchases or even take their business elsewhere. 

A cashless society may not be something new, but we still see huge room for growth as smartphone and Internet penetration rates continue to grow. The shift in consumer behaviour accelerated by COVID-19 will also drive the digitalisation of consumption, further supporting the future earnings of payment companies. Finally in today’s digital era, having digital footprints could also help improve our society, from crime to convenience, further driving growth in demand for digital payment systems. 

Therefore, we believe the payment industry will benefit as a whole as demand for digital payment systems continues to grow in the next decade as the world shifts towards a cashless society.

Digitalisation in consumption to benefit payment companies


Digital technology has revolutionised the way we consume information, entertainment, goods and services. In fact, it has become an indispensable part of our everyday lives. On top of that, the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated the adoption of digital technology across many sellers, even forcing the traditional ones to move their business online in order to survive.

We believe this fundamental shift in our behaviour is here to stay and they will most probably become the next normal of our day-to-day lives. In other words, we are going to witness higher e-commerce adoption rates across the world as we shift away from traditional retail (Chart 2).

Chart 2: Higher e-commerce adoption rates across the world


This signals a huge growth opportunity within the e-commerce space which also means that there will be a surge in demand for online payment systems because for businesses and services to go remote, payments will also have to happen remotely as well. Therefore, going forward, more merchants and consumers will need to move with the times by taking up digital payment systems, which will translate to a bigger user base and earnings growth for the payment companies. 

Increasing smartphone and Internet adoption rate to drive digital payment transactions 


The Internet has become an integral part of our lives, while smartphones have also grown to become an essential commodity for everyone. The global smartphone penetration rate has been increasing over the last few years and is expected to continue its growth, supported by the fast-growing developing economies, such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China (Table 2). 

Table 2: Growing smartphone penetration rate globally 
Markets 2013 2019
Global* 44.7% 54.6%
China 46.9% 59.9%
Indonesia 14.0% 31.1%
Malaysia 34.5% 57.5%
Vietnam 19.7% 44.9%
India 12.8% 36.7%
Brazil 26.3% 45.6%
Developed economies' average 60.5% 73.9%
Source: Newzoo, Google, iFAST compilations
*Global penetration rate is based on a simple average across all the countries in the report
Data as of September 2020

Smartphones have become such a huge part of our daily lives that we use them for almost everything. From communication, gaming, watching videos, to payments, the world today is literally in our hands. As the number of smartphone users grows, we believe that consumers will increasingly conduct their day-to-day activities through their smartphones. This means that more consumers will transit from physical point-of-sale to online point-of-sale, a trend that will drive the growth of digital payments. 

Besides, you will be surprised to know that there are still many economies relying heavily on cash usage, signalling an opportunity for the payment companies to win market share. While developing markets are the ones still relying heavily on cash, it’s surprising that some of the largest developed markets have yet to transit from cash to cashless payment modes (Table 3).

Chart 3: Room for non-cash usage to grow


As a developed market, Europe has one of the lowest online payment adoption rates in the world, with 79% of all transactions still carried out in cash. In Japan, only 18% of transactions are done through cashless modes. While we know that most of China’s citizens use digital online payments systems, some of the country’ rural areas are still cash-dependent given how their payment infrastructure is not as developed as the ones in the larger cities. 

However, what is truly exciting for payment companies is that almost all countries have the same goal to increase cashless payments. Besides, there has also been an increasing number of countries encouraging the shift towards digital payments, since cash is viewed as the less sanitary payment method during this global pandemic.

Take Japan as an example, its government is pushing for an increase in cashless payments to 40% by 2025, via cash rebates or reward points for consumers that use cashless payment methods. As for America, while cashless payment methods are most regularly used, there are still about 26% of transactions made in cash. Therefore, in response to the pandemic, the US national public health institute has encouraged retailers and consumers to use digital payment options to minimise contact where possible. 

Overall, we think there is still plenty of room for digital payment transactions to grow. The increasing smartphone and Internet adoption rate across the world, as well as the common goal of all countries to transit into a cashless society, will eventually translate to a bigger user base and earnings growth for the payment companies. 

Digital payment systems bring about benefits to all stakeholders


Finally, in today’s modern digital world, everything is about data. We are seeing many merchants, consumers, and even governments shifting towards digital payment systems given how such systems can potentially offer benefits that traditional cash payments modes cannot.  

By having digital footprints for transactions, such a move may deter crime, money laundering and tax evasion issues significantly. Over the years, we have seen several countries shifting towards digital payments systems while actively encouraging their citizens to adopt these new payment methods at the same time.

For example, in 2016, India launched a national digital payment infrastructure that facilitates inter-bank transactions on a smartphone. To further encourage their citizens to adopt such payment methods, the India government also withdrew all high-denomination banknotes from circulation. In Argentina, participants who admitted to paying bribes to local officials fell after the government moved to electronic payment methods, illustrating how adopting digital footprints could help deter financial-related crimes.

Besides, as more consumers adopt digital payments, this will also help to enhance security for customers. For instance, PayPal processes approximately 27 million transactions a day, collecting pools of data about its customers’ spending patterns, behaviour, location, and more. This data can be used to implicitly verify customers’ identities, providing users with that added layer of security while simultaneously saving time for them. On the other hand, digital payments will also enhance security for merchants as compared to traditional methods, such as keeping physical cash in cash registers.

From the merchants’ perspective, payments data will also allow them to analyse shoppers’ needs and wants in greater detail, ultimately helping to grow their business.

Therefore, by going cashless, it could potentially bring about many benefits to all stakeholders, providing great momentum for the further adoption of digital payment systems moving forward.

An attractive growth play in the financial services ecosystem 


The most unique aspect of the digital payments ecosystem is that it has a network effect. When more consumers adopt digital payment methods, this will push more merchants to adopt digital payment systems and vice versa. In essence, the more users the payment ecosystem gains, the more valuable the services become. 

This will eventually reach a tipping point where it becomes difficult for people to be excluded and stay outside of this ecosystem, making the entire digital payment system an essential service in our modern world. Therefore, if you are looking for an opportunity that captures the shift from physical cash transactions to mobile and digital systems, you may consider investing in the ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF (NYSE:IPAY).  

This ETF is designed to track the mobile and digital payments industry, specifically focusing on credit card networks, payment infrastructure and software services, payment processing services, and payment solutions. Using our ETF selection methodology, it has the best liquidity and tracking difference which we believe more than compensate for its slightly higher expense ratio of 0.75%. 

Table 3: Top ten holdings of the IPAY ETF
Company Name % of total assets
Square Inc. 6.2%
MasterCard  5.9%
PayPal Holdings 5.9%
Fidelity National Information Services 5.6%
VISA 5.6%
Fiserv Inc. 5.4%
American Express 5.4%
Adyen NV 5.0%
Global Payments 4.7%
Afterpay Ltd 3.0%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., iFAST compilations
Data as of September 2020

Based on our fair PE of 25X, we arrived at our target price of USD 67.5, which translates to an upside potential of 24.8% by 2022. Overall, given the importance of the digital payment systems, we believe there will strong potential growth in the years ahead as countries across the globe shift towards a cashless society, making this ETF a good long-term investment that you can consider to hold on to. 

Table 4: Earnings growth expected going forward
2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
PE ratio - 34.6 24.7 20.0
Earnings growth - -4.9% 40.2% 23.2%
EPS (USD) 5.7 5.5 7.6 9.4
Source: Bloomberg, iFAST compilations
Data as of September 2020

Chart 4: IPAY ETF price vs. earnings


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For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) and the analyst who produced this report hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.

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