- New EC rules accelerate near-term demand for exempt projects; medium-term impact is contained. Every EC project in the 2026 launch pipeline was tendered before 8 May 2026 and is exempt from the new rules. The MOP extension, Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS) removal, and expanded first-timer quota create demand urgency for these exempt or old-rule projects rather than headwinds for PropNex's 2026 and 1H2027 commission pipeline.
- Five upcoming EC project launches are ring-fenced from new rules. These projects represent an estimated 1,975 units that were tendered before 8 May 2026 and remain under the old framework, providing a protected near-term commission pipeline.
- Low SORA partially offsets the DPS removal. The 3-month compounded SORA at approximately 1.08%, well below the average over the past five years, 2.16%, reduces the financing burden under the Normal Payment Scheme (NPS), softening the impact of losing DPS for creditworthy buyers.
- Resale market tailwind could partially compensate. Demand displaced from the new EC market may migrate to the private resale market. Given PropNex earns a percentage commission on transaction value, rising resale prices would expand the absolute commission pool on this segment.
- BUY maintained at SGD 2.70. The new EC rules, counterintuitively, are a near-term positive for PropNex's exempt project pipeline and a medium-term tailwind for private resale. Combined with an 8,811-unit private condo pipeline in 2026, a Government Land Sales (GLS) Confirmed List running 50% above the decade average, and the multi-year MOP-driven upgrade cycle, the structural growth story is intact.
PropNex Limited (SGX: OYY) operates across five revenue segments: Project Marketing, Private Resale, HDB Resale, Rental, and Landed Resale. Among these, Project Marketing — which includes commissions earned from marketing new private residential and executive condominium launches on behalf of developers — remains the largest earnings driver. The segment generated SGD 434.0 million, or approximately 39% of total revenue, in FY2025, more than doubling from SGD 185.6 million in FY2024 (24% of total revenue).
Within Project Marketing, ECs form only a sub-segment. Private condominiums the dominant contributor to the primary market commission pool due to their structurally higher selling prices and commissions per unit.
On 8 May 2026, the Ministry of National Development announced a package of three measures to strengthen the EC Housing Scheme:
- a minimum occupancy period (MOP) extension to 10 years (current: 5 years)
- fully privatised only after 15 years (current: 10 years)
- removal of the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS)
- an increase in the first-timer buyer quota to 90% with a two-year priority period (current: 1 month)
For investors, the key question is not simply what has changed, but how these measures affect PropNex’s current and future commission pipeline. In this article, we examine the implications of each policy change and explain why, in our view, the overall impact on the investment thesis remains modestly positive.
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Related article: PropNex’s winning formula: The people behind the property boom
Developments surrounding the new Executive Condominiums beyond 2026
1. The new EC Rules: What has changed
The three new measures apply only to EC sites where the Government Land Sales (GLS) tender closes on or after 8 May 2026. Existing EC projects, as well as projects where GLS tenders have already closed, will not be affected.
The policy rationale is explicit: Minister for National Development Chee Hong Tat framed the changes as intended to address soaring EC prices and temper land bids. This is done with the expectation that developers will reduce bids, given that 90% of units can only be sold to first-timers during the first 39 months from the date of site award.
- First, the MOP for new ECs has been extended from five years to ten years, with full privatisation deferred from the 11th year to the 16th year.
The rationale behind the move is evident from recent pricing trends. Median new EC prices surged 120% from SGD 797 psf in 2015 to SGD 1,754 psf in 2025, outpacing the 96% increase in comparable new 99-year suburban condos over the same period. This price escalation has been accompanied by extensive short-term resale activity.
Figure 1: Median prices of new EC units versus comparable new 99-year suburban condos
In 2021 to 2025, about 75% of ECs were sold by owners between their fifth and tenth year of owning the unit – that is, within five years of it hitting its MOP. This was up from 45% in the preceding five-year period.
In 2025 alone, 162 EC transactions recorded gains exceeding SGD 1 million. The 10-year MOP extension directly targets this pattern, substantially lengthening the commitment horizon and narrowing the exit window for buyers with capital recycling objectives.
Table 1: Key statistics from the sale of EC after hitting its minimum occupancy period
|
Year |
Average gains (SGD) |
Transactions within million-dollar gains |
Average holding period |
|
2021 |
287,538 |
4 |
9.3 |
|
2022 |
412,683 |
6 |
8.7 |
|
2023 |
521,960 |
16 |
8.6 |
|
2024 |
584,674 |
42 |
9.1 |
|
2025 |
659,366 |
162 |
9.5 |
|
YTD 2026 |
653,617 |
43 |
9.6 |
|
Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority. Data as of 26 April 2026. |
|||
- Second, the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS) has been removed for new EC purchases.
DPS had allowed buyers to defer mortgage servicing until the EC reached its Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP), providing significant short-term cashflow relief. According to PropNex CEO, Kelvin Fong, on average, 60% to 70% of EC buyers (or more for some projects) opted for DPS. The removal of DPS is particularly consequential for HDB upgraders who have an outstanding HDB loan, as they would face dual loan servicing obligations during the construction period under the Normal Payment Scheme (NPS). In line with industry expectations, we expect the removal to exert slight downward pressure on headline EC prices, as units sold under DPS typically carried a 2% to 3% price premium over NPS equivalents.
- Third, the first-timer buyer quota for new EC projects has been raised from 70% to 90%, and the priority period — during which second-timers may not book units — has been extended from one month to two years.
The policy context is important. The proportion of first-time EC buyers has declined from approximately 50% in 2020 to just 30% to 40% in 2024 and 2025, as rising prices have advantaged second-timers who bring larger equity pools from HDB flat sale proceeds. The extended priority window aims to restore balance, but introduces meaningful uncertainty around initial launch take-up rates.
Now, with 90% of units reserved for first-timers for up to 39 months before Additional Buyer Stamp Duty (ABSD) clawback exposure, we expect developers to adopt more conservative land bids on future EC GLS tenders. The first two EC sites to be released under the new framework are a Canberra Drive plot (expected May 2026) and a Sembawang Drive plot (expected June 2026), which will serve as early market tests of how developer appetite and pricing respond to the revised rules.
Table 2: Summary of key changes to EC from GLS sites with tender closing dates on or after 8 May 2026
|
Changes to new ECs |
Current |
New |
|
Minimum occupancy period (after which, can sell to Singaporeans or PRs) |
5 years |
10 years |
|
Fully privatised (after which, can sell to foreigners) |
10 years |
15 years |
|
Priority period for first-time homebuyers |
1 month |
2 years |
|
Percentage of first timer to second timer buyer quota |
70%/30% |
90%/10% |
|
Deferred payment scheme option |
Yes |
No |
|
Source: Ministry of National Development. Data as of 8 May 2026. |
||
2. Impact on PropNex: near-term positive, medium-term contained
Based on our review, the new EC rules carry no near-term commission risk and may accelerate demand for upcoming ECs and resale private property activity.
The critical data point is this: every EC project in the 2026 pipeline (and two in the 2027 pipeline) was tendered before 8 May 2026.
Table 3: Five EC launches in 2026 and two in 2027
|
No. |
Project / Area |
Number of units |
Launch |
|
1 |
Coastal Cabana |
748 |
Launched in Jan 2026 |
|
2 |
Rivelle Tampines |
572 |
Launched in Mar 2026 |
|
3 |
Senja Close |
300 |
4Q26 |
|
4 |
Sembawang Road |
265 |
4Q26 |
|
5 |
Woodlands Drive 17 (CDL) |
420 |
4Q26 |
|
Total number of units for EC launch pipeline in 2026: 2,305 units |
|||
|
6 |
Woodlands Drive (Sim Lian Group) |
560 |
Tba, 2027 expected |
|
7 |
Miltonia Close in Yishun (Hoi Hup Realty) |
430 |
Tba, 2027 expected |
|
Source: PropNex, EdgeProp. Data as of 11 May 2026. |
|||
All seven are exempt from the new rules. For the EC launches slated for 2026, they collectively represent 2,305 EC units, or 21% of the total 2026 new launch pipeline. By comparison, ECs accounted for just 11% of the 2025 pipeline (1,360 units across two projects).
The demand dynamics for these exempt projects are favourable. Buyers who wish to purchase a new EC with DPS eligibility, a five-year MOP, and the 70%/30% first-to-second-timer ratio will recognise that these five projects represent the last opportunity before the new rules take effect. We expect these projects to attract strong buying demand for this reason. For Coastal Cabana in particular, the only EC currently on the market with approximately 150 unsold units, this policy shift could serve as a meaningful catalyst for clearing remaining inventory and locking in commission recognition for PropNex.
The DPS removal is the most impactful of the three measures for post-May 8 EC sites, given that more than 75% of buyers at recent EC launches this year, namely Rivelle Tampines and Coastal Cabana, opted for it. This is above the broader historical average of 60% to 70% cited by CEO Kelvin Fong, reflecting the particular appeal of deferred payments at current price points.
However, for the current exempt pipeline, DPS remains available, and the low-interest-rate environment further reduces the financing cost under NPS for buyers of future EC sites. At the current 3-month compounded SORA of approximately 1.08%, it is well below the five-year average of 2.16%, suggesting blended mortgage rates remain manageable for HDB upgrader households. As such, we expect limited demand destruction once DPS is removed for future EC launches.
Figure 2: 3-month compounded SORA (benchmark for mortgage loan pricing)
Most importantly, ECs are a lower-margin segment within Project Marketing. New private condominiums, which account for 79% of the 2026 pipeline, or 8,811 units, generate structurally higher per-unit commissions given their higher absolute selling prices. The Project Marketing commission pool is thus weighted toward private condos by design. Even in a scenario where post-new-rules EC demand moderates over 2027 and 2028, the private condo pipeline, supported by GLS and record land bids, remains the dominant earnings driver.
3. Structural Tailwinds: Resale uplift, GLS pipeline and slower EC repricing
Beyond the near-term protection from the exempt pipeline, three structural dynamics create medium-term earnings tailwinds for PropNex that the market may be underappreciating.
- The most important near-term mitigant is the ring-fencing of five existing EC projects from the new rules.
The government has clarified that the new measures apply only to GLS EC sites where the tender closes on or after 8 May 2026. These total an estimated 1,975 units and are scheduled for launch from 2H26 to 2027; they remain governed by the previous framework.
Table 4: Upcoming EC launches
|
No. |
Project / Area |
Number of units |
Launch |
|
1 |
Senja Close |
300 |
4Q26 |
|
2 |
Sembawang Road |
265 |
4Q26 |
|
3 |
Woodlands Drive 17 (CDL) |
420 |
4Q26 |
|
4 |
Woodlands Drive (Sim Lian Group) |
560 |
Tba, 2027 expected |
|
5 |
Miltonia Close in Yishun (Hoi Hup Realty) |
430 |
Tba, 2027 expected |
|
Total number of units for upcoming EC launches (exempt from the revised rules): 1,975 units |
|||
|
Source: PropNex, EdgeProp. Data as of 11 May 2026. |
|||
This means five-year MOP, DPS eligibility, and the 70%/30% first-to-second-timer quota ratio continue to apply to these projects, making them the last cohort of new ECs that buyers can purchase under the more accommodating old rules. Some of these projects could be launched close to SGD 2,000 psf (referencing the most recent EC launch in March 2026, Rivelle, at an average launch price of SGD 1,893), reflecting the pricing power the old-rule exemption grants their developers. Beyond these five, Coastal Cabana in Pasir Ris — the only EC currently on the market with significant unsold inventory of approximately 150 units since its December 2025 launch — is also expected to see accelerated sales as buyers seek out DPS-eligible product.
For PropNex, which is ranked first by agent headcount and agent productivity, this constitutes a clearly defined and well-supported near-term commission pipeline.
- The second tailwind is a structurally positive shift in the private resale market.
The new EC rules create two reinforcing pressures that support private resale prices.
Demand displacement: Buyers who are deterred by the 10-year MOP or the absence of DPS at future new EC launches will redirect toward the private resale condo market. The resale market is where no MOP restrictions apply and immediate resale flexibility is preserved. This demand influx expands the pool of prospective buyers for resale condominiums, supporting both transaction volumes and prices.
Supply constraint: The extended 10-year MOP on new ECs will gradually reduce the pipeline of younger resale ECs coming to market over the medium term. A thinner supply of younger resale ECs and resale condos reinforces upward price pressure on the resale inventory. Given that PropNex earns a percentage commission on transaction value, higher average resale prices directly expand the absolute commission pool in its private resale segment.
- Third, the impact of the new rules on post-May 8 EC sites will flow through to the market only slowly.
No new EC GLS land bids under the revised framework have been announced yet. The first batch of affected sites, a Canberra Drive plot (expected May 2026) and a Sembawang Drive plot (expected June 2026), are only just entering the tender stage. Given developer pricing adjustments, construction timelines, and sales cycles, the impact on PropNex’s commission income from post-rule EC projects is unlikely to materialise before 2027 at the earliest.
In the interim, land bid adjustments (which are expected as developers factor in a more conservative first-timer buyer pool) will set a lower price floor for future EC launches. But this is in the interest of broadening EC affordability and sustaining demand at a more sustainable level.
More broadly, the GLS programme itself remains a powerful anchor: approximately 25,000 private residential units are expected to come to market over 2025 to 2027, with the 1H2026 Confirmed List supplying approximately 4,600 units — 50% above the average half-yearly Confirmed List supply for GLS programmes over the past decade. This robust pipeline of private condominium launches, which carry structurally higher per-unit commissions, helps ensure that any medium-term moderation in EC activity has a limited impact on overall Project Marketing revenue for PropNex.
Why the Structural Growth Story Remains Intact
1. The MOP Surge Creates a Multi-Year, Dual-Commission Tailwind
After a cyclical trough of just 8,000 MOP-eligible flats in 2025, the pipeline surges to an estimated 13,500 in 2026, 15,000 in 2027, and 19,500 in 2028. Over the full three-year period, approximately 48,000 flats will reach MOP, 28.1% more than in the prior three years of 2023 to 2025 (37,474 units).
In 2026, areas that would see a relatively larger increase in MOP-eligible flats include Punggol (3,222) and Tampines (2,133). This could translate into meaningful upgrader demand, supporting new launches for both ECs and private condominiums.
This is not merely a volume story for PropNex's HDB resale segment; it is a dual-commission story. Every MOP completion unlocks a potential HDB resale transaction and, for a meaningful proportion of those owners, an EC or private condo purchase thereafter.
While the new EC rules may redirect part of this upgrader demand toward resale condos or private condo launches, the key point is that commission capture remains intact. The mix may shift, but the overall commission pool remains supported.
Figure 3: A rebound of MOP-eligible HDB flats is expected in 2026
Table 5: HDB MOP Pipeline (2025A–2028E)
|
Metric |
2025A |
2026E |
2027E |
2028E |
|
HDB flats reaching MOP |
8,000 |
13,500 |
15,000 |
19,500 |
|
YoY Growth |
-38.9% |
+68.8% |
+11.1% |
+30.0% |
|
Cumulative 2026–2028 vs 2023–2025 |
48,000 units entering the HDB resale market, which is 28.1% more than the prior 3-year period (2023–2025) |
|||
|
Source: HDB, PropNex Research, data.gov.sg. Data as of 1 April 2026. |
||||
Table 6: About 13,500 HDB flats to reach minimum occupation period in 2026, rebounding from a low of 8,000 units in 2025
|
Town |
2-room flat |
3-room flat |
4-room flat |
5-room flat |
Total |
|
Bedok |
409 |
0 |
757 |
274 |
1,440 |
|
Bukit Batok |
187 |
34 |
0 |
0 |
221 |
|
Bukit Panjang |
51 |
17 |
203 |
79 |
350 |
|
Geylang |
136 |
183 |
0 |
0 |
319 |
|
Hougang |
0 |
0 |
155 |
130 |
285 |
|
Kallang/Whampoa |
0 |
85 |
158 |
0 |
243 |
|
Punggol |
890 |
313 |
1,334 |
685 |
3,222 |
|
Queenstown |
408 |
1,094 |
659 |
244 |
2,405 |
|
Sembawang |
0 |
83 |
131 |
96 |
310 |
|
Sengkang |
0 |
0 |
198 |
132 |
330 |
|
Tampines |
0 |
244 |
1,162 |
727 |
2,133 |
|
Toa Payoh |
218 |
340 |
800 |
236 |
1,594 |
|
Woodlands |
0 |
72 |
100 |
0 |
172 |
|
Yishun |
0 |
96 |
252 |
108 |
456 |
|
Note: Estimations may vary slightly due to different sources of data Source: 99.co. |
|||||
2. The 2026 Launch Calendar is OCR-Heavy and Upgrader-Driven
Approximately 58.1% of 2026 new launch units are in the Outside Central Region (OCR / suburban area), up from 42.0% in 2025. This shift is deliberate: developers are positioning their pipelines to capture the wave of MOP-driven upgrader demand. The sell-out results of Rivelle Tampines and Pinery Residences validate this positioning.
Total available inventory, including unsold units carried over from 2025, remains broadly stable at approximately 16,597 units (2025: 16,931 units), providing PropNex with a resilient addressable market even in a year of lower new launch volumes.
3. Record 1Q26 GLS Bids Signal a higher floor for 2027 Launch Prices
URA's 1Q26 private residential price flash estimate showed a 0.3% QoQ increase, which is a moderation from 0.6% in 4Q25 but still reflecting positive growth.
Five GLS sites (four private residential plots and one EC site) were awarded in 1Q26, adding approximately 2,750 homes to the forward new launch pipeline and collectively drawing 21 bids across four private tenders. We also note that the one EC site, Woodlands Drive 17 (Sim Lian), that was secured at a record land bid, would not face a profitability margin issue due to it being exempt from the revised EC ruling.
More importantly for PropNex, land prices achieved in 1Q26 serve as a leading indicator of future launch prices when these projects come to market in 2027. Given that commissions scale with transaction value, higher launch prices directly translate into higher absolute commission income per unit.
Table 7: 1Q26 GLS Sites — Land Rates and Estimated Launch Prices
|
GLS Site |
District* |
Type |
Est. Units |
Award Date |
Land Rate (SGD psf ppr) |
Est. Launch Price (SGD psf) |
Commission Relevance for PropNex |
|
Dairy Farm Walk |
D23 (OCR) |
Condo |
480 |
Jan 2026 |
962 (5.7% below Narra site) |
$2,020–$2,200 |
Gradual seller pool; broadly in line with existing Dairy Farm benchmarks |
|
Tanjong Rhu Road |
D15 (RCR) |
Condo |
525 |
Feb 2026 |
1,455 |
$2,700–$3,100 |
First new D15 GLS in about 30 years; scarcity premium supports high average selling price (ASP) and commission quantum |
|
Lentor Central |
D26 (OCR) |
Condo |
562 |
Mar 2026 |
1,278 (Lentor estate record) |
$2,450–$2,700 |
PropNex appointed across Lentor precinct; rising PSF floor directly expands per-unit commission |
|
Dover Drive |
D5 (RCR) |
Mixed-use |
625 |
Mar 2026 |
1,556 (2nd-highest RCR ever) |
$2,830–$3,200+ |
First GLS in Dover-Medway; 31% land cost step-up vs prior Bloomsbury site in same precinct |
|
Woodlands Drive 17 |
D25 (OCR) |
EC |
560 |
Jan 2026 |
794 (record EC) |
$1,750–$2,000 |
2,700+ MOP-eligible flats in North by 2027; no EC in Woodlands since 2016 |
|
Source: URA, Stacked Homes, Knight Frank. Data as of 31 March 2026. Est. launch prices based on analyst projections; actual prices subject to developer discretion. *OCR refers to Outside Central Region (suburban area), RCR refers to Rest of Central Region (near city centre), while CCR refers to Core Central Region (city centre). |
|||||||
Valuation
Our review of PropNex's (SGX: OYY) 2026 launch pipeline confirms that no EC unit in the current schedule is subject to the new rules. Moreover, the broader commission base for new launches this year is dominated by the 8,811-unit private condo pipeline and is unaffected by the EC measures.
If anything, the dynamics created by the new rules are mildly accretive to the 2026 and 1H27 commission outlook: exempt EC projects are positioned to see accelerated demand, and the medium-term resale private property tailwind builds an additional source of earnings support beyond the primary market.
Taking these dynamics into account, we have slightly raised our 2026 earnings growth forecast (+1.0%) while lowering our 2027 and 2028 forecasts marginally (-0.6% and -0.5%) from our previous update.
Applying a fair P/E multiple of 22X to our forecasted FY2028E EPS yields an unchanged target price of SGD 2.70 by the end of 2028, implying 48.2% upside from the current price of SGD 1.82 as of 11 May 2026. We also estimate an average annual dividend yield of approximately 5.1% over the next three years.
Table 8: PropNex Earnings Summary and Target Price
PropNex | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
P/E Ratio (X) | 19.8 | 17.6 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
Earnings Growth (%) | 72.0% | 8.4% | 19.3% | (0.3%) |
EPS (SGD) | 0.0951 | 0.1031 | 0.1230 | 0.1226 |
DPS (SGD) | 0.0950 | 0.0825 | 0.0984 | 0.0981 |
Dividend Yield (%) | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
Target Price (Fair P/E: 22X) | SGD 2.70 | |||
Current Price | SGD 1.82 | |||
Upside Potential | 48.2% | |||
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. (historical); iFAST Estimates (forecasts). Data as of 11 May 2026. | ||||
Figure 4: PropNex Share price vs Earnings per share
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