Bonds

Idea of the Week: Why Olam 2026 bond is one of our favourite short-term SGD bond right now

Olam's 2026 fixed rate bond is attractively priced with slightly over one year left to maturity.

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  • Published on 19 Dec 2024

Idea of the Week:  Why Olam 2026 bond is one of our favourite short-term SGD bond right now | Open a FREE FSMOne account and manage all your investments conveniently in ONE place

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  • Olam reported an 8.3% YoY growth in EBIT to S$888.0M in 1H24 lifted by strong operating performance from Olam Food Ingredients. Profit after tax and minority interests (“PATMI”) remained resilient at S$48.1M, almost unchanged relative to 1H23 as the strong EBIT growth offset the impact from increased taxes and a jump in interest costs.

  • Olam’s credit profile has moderated but remains stable. Debt ratios have deteriorated due to higher working capital requirements and interest costs but EBITDA from the Group’s core operating segments remains resilient and liquidity remains strong. 

  • We like OLAMSP 4.000% 24Feb2026 Corp (SGD) and find it attractively priced. The bond is trading at an attractive yield of around 4.25% with slightly over one year left to maturity.

Olam Group Limited (“Olam”) is a leading food and agri-business company providing food, ingredients, feed, and fibre to over 22,000 customers globally. The Group has operations in farming, origination, processing, and distribution spanning over 60 countries.  Olam reports revenue in three main operating groups.

Olam Agri is a food, feed, and fibre global agri-business focused on high-growth emerging markets. It primarily supplies grains and oilseeds, wheat milling and pasta, integrated feed and proteins, edible oils, rice. It also provides freight management and risk management solutions. Management remains committed to listing Olam Agri.

Ofi, or Olam Food Ingredients provides sustainable and natural ingredients for large, high-growth end-use categories. It is primarily involved in the cocoa, coffee, dairy, nuts, and spices businesses. Ofi operates its own farm, farm-gate origination, manufacturing facilities, and innovation centres. Management has also expressed the desire to list Olam Agri.

The remaining Olam Group comprises 1) incubating businesses like Nupo Ventures, 2) Olam Global Holdco, which houses the de-prioritised/exiting assets earmarked for exit, and 3) Mindsprint, which provides shared services to the operating groups.

1H2024 financial highlights


For the six months ended 30 June 2024 (“1H24”), Olam reported S$26.9B in group revenue, a 9.1% year-over-year (“YoY”) increase (Chart 1). This was driven by higher sales volume growth of 13.9% YoY, primarily from Olam Agri's Food & Feed - Origination & Merchandising segment as grains and oilseed volumes normalised from a low base in 1H23.

Olam’s operating performance has also improved in 1H24. Earnings before interest and tax (“EBIT”) growth for the Group remain resilient, increasing by 8.3% YoY to S$888.0M in 1H24 (Chart 1). That said, the Group recorded a significant increase in working capital,  largely from higher commodity prices, resulting in greater inventory and margin deposits. The Group's EBIT growth was primarily helped by strong operating performance from ofi. The latter recorded a 71.5% YoY growth in EBIT to S$ 475.5M (53.5% of Group EBIT), largely helped by strong performance from its Ingredients & Solutions segment, particularly the diary and spices businesses.

Olam Agri saw -8.4% YoY decline in EBIT growth to S$512.0M (57.7% of Group EBIT) weighed down by its Food & Feed - Origination & Merchandising and Fibre, Agri-Industrials & Ag Services segments. The combination of lower freight rates, higher costs, and lower prices across cotton, wheat, corn, and soy took away some volume impact. The remaining Olam Group incurred a wider EBIT loss of -S$99.5M in 1H24, as compared to the -S$16.7M recorded in 1H23, dragged down by larger losses across nearly all sub-segments. 

Olam’s profit after tax and minority interests (“PATMI”) remained resilient at S$48.1M, nearly unchanged relative to 1H23 (S$ 47.9M), despite the impact from increased taxes and a 36% YoY jump in interest costs which offset the strong EBIT growth. Interest cost rose over the year due to an increase in working capital requirements and higher average interest rates. Olam’s operational PATMI (excluding exceptional items) fell by -60.1% YoY to S$73.5M. 

Chart 1: Revenue and EBIT contribution by operating segments


Chart 2: PATMI remained relatively stable in 1H24 despite higher net finance and taxation costs

 

Credit highlights


Olam’s debt levels have increased due to higher working capital needs. Total debt for Olam (including lease liabilities) rose by 37.5% to S$ 22.4B in 1H24, as compared to S$ 16.3B as of FY23. The Group held a net debt position of S$18.8B in 1H24, rising from S$12.7B as of FY23. This was due to higher working capital requirements as a result of the elevated and volatile commodity prices, which drove the need for greater loans. We do not see this as a lingering issue given that swings in working capital requirement are rather common across commodity-trading businesses. Management expects working capital requirements to ease in 3Q24.

Debt ratios have deteriorated after the rise in debt. Treating the perpetual securities (“perps”) as debt, Olam’s adjusted net debt to EBITDA was estimated to be 7.6x in 1H24, rising from 5.3x in FY23. The unadjusted net gearing ratio was 2.6x in 1H24, rising from 1.7x in FY23, higher than the internal target of less than 2.0x. 

That said, accounting for readily marketable inventories (“RMI”) and secured receivables, the adjusted net gearing ratio falls to 1.0x in 1H24, rising slightly from 0.6x in FY23 (RMI are liquid hedged/ forward contracted inventories that can be liquidated within 90 days without a reduction in sales price or margin). Further adjusting for perps, the adjusted net gearing ratio was estimated to be 1.2x in 1H24, rising from 0.8x in FY23.

Table 1: Debt metrics have worsened in 1H23 primarily due to higher debt and financing costs

Metrics

1H23

FY23

1H24

Adj. net debt to EBITDA (x) (incl. perps)

5.7

5.3

7.6

Net gearing (X)

1.7

1.7

2.6

Adj. net gearing (incl. RMI and secured recievables) (X)

0.9

0.6

1.0

Adj. net gearing (incl. RMI, secured recievables, and perps) (X)

1.0

0.8

1.2

Adj. EBITDA Coverage (incl. perps dist.) (X)

1.9

1.9

1.5

Source: Company report, iFAST estimates, iFAST compilations.

Data as of 30 June 2024


The Group’s interest coverage ratios also fell due to higher interest expenses. Adjusting for distribution from perps, EBITDA to interest expense ratio was estimated to be 1.5x in 1H24, declining from 1.9x in FY23. With global central banks moving towards policy easing, we think interest rates are likely to fall further. As such, we expect interest expense to decline moving forward, especially working capital related interest costs, which should allow for coverage ratios to improve. Management expects interest expenses in 2H24 to be lower than 1H24. 

Strong total available liquidity which sufficiently covers debt obligations. Olam recorded a cash balance of S$ 3,514.9M in 1H24, nearly unchanged as compared to FY23. Including S$8,050M of readily marketable inventories, S$3,258M of secured receivables, and S$ 9,299M of unutilised bank lines, the Group has a total available liquidity of S$ 24,122M (Chart 3). This is more than sufficient to cover total debt (including lease liabilities) of S$ 22,396 in 1H24, leaving a healthy S$1,726M of liquidity headroom for the Group. We expect little near-term liquidity hurdle for the Group.

Chart 3: Total liquidity remains strong, sufficient to cover both long and short term debt 

 

Recommendations


Table 1: Olam’s fixed rate and perpetual bonds

Bond Name

Issuer

Maturity Date / Call Date

Bond Price

Years to Maturity / Call date

Yield to Maturity / Next Call (%)

OLGPSP 5.375% Perpetual Corp (SGD)

Olam Group Limited

18 July 2026

99.90

- / 1.59

- / 5.59

OLAMSP 4.000% 24Feb2026 Corp (SGD)

Olam International Limited

24 Feb 2026

99.650  

1.19 / -

4.25 / -

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bondsupermart, iFAST compilations. Data as of 16 December 2024


Olam’s credit metrics have weakened due to higher working capital requirements and an increase in interest costs. However, EBITDA from its core operations remains resilient, and total liquidity for the Group remains strong. On balance, Olam’s credit profile remains stable, and we expect credit metrics to improve as working capital needs normalise and interest expense eases.

Between Olam’s fixed rate and perpetual bond, we maintain our preference for the former - OLAMSP 4.000% 24Feb2026 Corp (SGD) - and recommend it to investors looking for an appealing short-term issue. We find the bond attractively priced at an indicative ask yield to maturity of 4.25%, which is one of the highest-yielding short-term SGD bonds.

As we have highlighted before, the bond is issued by Olam International Limited which is under ofi. The latter has demonstrated decent volume and earnings growth in recent years. Management remains positive and has also guided for high single-digit adjusted total EBIT growth in the medium term. With Olam’s total available liquidity (more than) adequately covering all its short-term debt, we see little risk for OLAMSP 4.000% 24Feb2026 Corp (SGD) which is maturing in 1.2 years.

OLGPSP 5.375% Perpetual Corp (SGD) is issued by Olam Group Limited, the ultimate parent of Olam Agri and ofi. According to management, both operating segments are expected to be listed moving ahead, which would likely leave the remaining Olam Group as the sole segment under Olam Group Limited. As we have highlighted in our past updates, this is likely to be credit negative for the perp as it represents significant losses in earnings drivers and claims to the Group’s assets. With the perp yielding around 5.59% (to call), we see better options in the SGD perps space. 

On the other hand, we note that the perp is trading at a yield-to-call of 5.59% (first call date on 18 July 2026) and has a large reset spread of 6.807% (4.807% and a step-up margin of 200 bps). This gives the Group an economic incentive to redeem it at the first call date. 

Declaration: For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) holds a position in OLAMSP 4.000% 24Feb2026 Corp (SGD) and OLGPSP 5.375% Perpetual Corp (SGD) and the analyst who produced this report holds a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.


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