- Barclays recorded a loss in 4Q23 due to structural cost actions of GBP 0.9b, but saw a profitable full year for FY23.
- It expects to pay out GBP 10b back to shareholders over 2024 to 2026, which we find it hard for Barclays to support such a plan given softening growth prospect.
- However, Barclays should be able to maintain its current profitability while maintaining its CET1 ratio in view of regulatory changes.
- We do not find Barclays’ outlook appealing enough to justify the current valuations on its bonds.
Barclays’ performance
Chart 1
Barclays’ historical performance (GBP m)

Outlook for Barclays
Chart 2
Barclays’ future performance by Bloomberg estimates (GBP m)

Credit Highlights
Barclays SGD and USD bonds
Table 1
BACR SGD Issuances
|
Issuances |
Ask Price |
Yield to Call/ Maturity |
Years to Call/ Maturity |
Reset Rate |
|
104.30 |
6.98% / - |
3.54 / - |
Reset Date: 15 Dec 2027 and every 5 years thereafter Reset Rate: 5-year SORA-OIS + the Margin (5.641%) |
|
|
100.05 |
7.35% / - |
4.29 / - |
Reset Date: 15 Sep 2028 and Every 5 Years Thereafter Reset Rate: 5Y SORA OIS + Initial Margin (3.929%) |
|
|
98.89 |
4.76% / 4.79% |
1.23 / 6.23 |
Reset Date: 23 May 2025 Reset Rate: 5Y SGD Swap Rate + initial re-offer spread (1.589%) |
|
|
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bondsupermart, iFAST Compilations. Data as of 1 March 2024. |
||||
Table 2
BACR USD Fixed Rate Issuances
|
Issuance |
Seniority |
Ask Price |
Yield to Call/ Maturity |
Years to Call/ Maturity |
|
Senior unsecured |
98.28 |
- / 5.36% |
- / 1.87 |
|
|
Senior unsecured |
106.02 |
5.54% / 6.06% |
3.67 / 4.68 |
|
|
Senior unsecured |
109.87 |
5.96% / 6.15% |
8.68 / 9.68 |
|
|
Tier 2 subordinated |
104.35 |
6.49% / 6.66% |
9.33 / 10.33 |
|
|
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bondsupermart, iFAST Compilations. Data as of 1 March 2024. |
||||
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