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A value strategy for Japan, our top equity pick

Japan is one of our top equity market picks. Within the market, Japanese value stocks remain attractive and stand to benefit from the ongoing shift in macro backdrop.

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  • Published on 22 Apr 2023

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  • As the drumbeat of a recession gets louder, we find Japan to be one of the few markets we like. Japan value stocks, in particular, are a bright spot within the market and have delivered strong performance over the past few decades.
  • Japan value stocks stand to benefit from a potential BOJ tightening and the ongoing decade-high inflation. Japanese banks, a major exposure within the value factor, are likely more resilient to banking issues seen in the West.
  • We recommend the Eastspring Investments – Japan Dynamic Fund for exposure to Japanese value stocks. We like the fund for its strong, long-term track record of outperformance, systematic value strategy, and unconstrained approach which has proven to be effective.

Japan, our top equity market pick


As the drumbeat of a recession gets louder and equity drivers are running scarce, we find Japan to be one of the few markets still supported by a confluence of positive factors. Japanese equities remain underpinned by a strong reopening tailwind and robust domestic spending. We expect a comparatively better economic outlook in Japan than developed market (DM) peers, which supports the relative performance of the region’s equities. 

Corporate balance sheets for Japanese companies are also strong as compared to historical levels and DM peers. On aggregate, companies are entering the global slowdown with historically high, cash-rich balance sheets which can be deployed to defend operating performance. Valuations are also attractive, with the region trading at a wide discount to their long-term average. This provides a wide margin of safety in the event of a recession. Lastly, with our view of a rebound in the yen relative to broad currencies, we also see additional cushion from currency gains for foreign investors.

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Japanese value stocks leading the way. Reasons why Japan value has the advantage


The Japan value stocks universe (gauged by the MSCI Japan Value Index) is dominated by a heavy concentration in three sectors – industrials, consumer discretionary, and financials – all of which have high double-digit weights each (Chart 1). There are several sectoral heavyweights in the index. Within the industrials sector, there are conglomerates like Hitachi and trading giants like Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui and Co. Within the consumer discretionary sector, there are global automobile leaders such as Toyota and Honda. Lastly, within the financials sector are Japanese banking giants like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and the Mizuho Financial Group.

Chart 1: The Japan value composition is dominated by heavy concentration to several sectors…

 
The Japan growth factor (gauged by the MSCI Japan Growth Index), on the other hand, has a more balanced sectoral exposure. The large allocations are split across the IT, industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and consumer staples sectors, each with a double-digit weight (Chart 2). Within the IT sector, there is prominent exposure to electronics and semiconductor companies like Keyence and Tokyo Electron. Within the consumer discretionary sector are allocations to global conglomerates like Sony Group and Fast Retailing. Within the industrials sector are global manufacturers like Daikin Industries. Lastly, within the healthcare sector are pharmaceutical giants like Daiichi Sankyo.

Chart 2: …while the Japan growth composition has a more balanced sectoral concentration

 
Last year, Japanese value stocks were one of the rare positive-returning segments across the global equity market. Japanese value (gauged by the MSCI Japan Value Index) returned 5% in 2022 (in local currency terms), defying the turbulent equity storm that has sunk most segments of the market, including Japanese growth (gauged by the MSCI Japan Growth Index) which fell -18%. Unlike the broader global value stocks, which have chronically underperformed their growth counterpart over the past few decades, Japanese value stocks are the complete opposite. 

Over the past 30 years, Japanese value stocks have gained over 110%, beating growth stocks as well as the broader MSCI Japan Index (Chart 3). Similar to value stocks in other regions, the outperformance of Japan value can be explained by macro factors such as rising inflation levels, tighter monetary policy, and higher yields (see related articles). 

However, Japan value is more advantageous than its regional peers. Unlike global central banks, the BOJ has more room to tighten policy and the unwinding of YCC will likely bring greater upside to Japanese bond yields, supporting value outperformance. In short, while the rest of the world is looking toward the end of rate hikes, Japan’s hike may be on the verge of beginning.

Furthermore, given a late re-opening, Japan’s inflation has lagged behind most DMs. We think this prolongs the support for inflation-sensitive sectors, which are more prominent within Japan value, and maintains pressure on the BOJ to tighten policy.

Lastly, unlike Western banks, Japanese banks (a heavyweight in Japan value) have strong capital buffers and stickier deposits. The BOJ also maintains an upward-sloping yield curve which can buffer net interest margins. Together, these factors help support the performance of Japanese banks and provide resilience against banking issues seen in the West.

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Chart 3: Over the past three decades, Japanese value has significantly outperformed growth and the broader market


Our recommended Japanese value equity fund


The Eastspring Investments - Japan Dynamic AS SGD is our recommended fund for exposure to Japanese value stocks. It aims to generate long-term capital growth through a concentrated portfolio of equities, equity-related securities, bonds, and currencies. This fund will invest primarily in securities of companies, which are incorporated, listed in, or have their area of primary activity in Japan. 

The fund’s investment approach is unconstrained by market capitalisation, benchmark, or the market’s thematic preferences. Its sector allocations (and any deviations from benchmark allocations) are purely a result of the team’s bottom-up stock selection. The fund’s largest allocations are to the consumer discretionary (24.8%), financials (17.8%), industrials (16.2%), and materials (11.4%) sectors. These are the only sectors with double-digit weights.

Compared to its benchmark, the MSCI Japan Index, this fund has an overweight in the consumer discretionary, financials, materials, and real estate sectors (Chart 4). While the consumer discretionary sector is not often associated with the value factor, especially in the West, the fund’s allocation to the sector is mostly to undervalued Japanese discretionary plays. These mostly consist of major auto companies (like Honda, Nissan, and Mazda) and an above 5% allocation to the beaten-down Panasonic. The fund is underweight the industrials, IT, healthcare, and consumer staples sectors. Unlike the benchmark, it has no allocation to several sectors, namely communication services, utilities, and energy sectors. 

Chart 4: Fund allocation relative to the benchmark, MSCI Japan Index

 

A systematic investment process that goes beyond selecting undervalued stocks


The fund is managed by a small, focused team with more than 16 years of track record in delivering strong performance. The team adopts a systematic four-step investment process. Not only do we find this process effective, proven by the fund’s long-term performance, but we like how it is not only about selecting undervalued stocks. There is also a core focus on fundamental analysis to avoid value traps, identification of catalysts that will drive a positive re-rating of share prices, and the upside potential of selected stocks.

First, the team screens for stocks that are undervalued relative to their history and the universe using long-term market data. The team tends to focus on companies that are deeply undervalued or trading at valuation extremes to identify opportunities with high upside potential.

Second, the team conducts fundamental analysis to ensure that the stock is not a value trap and assesses the drivers of valuation. After robust analysis and debate, a valuation target is also derived which will guide the reviewing and monitoring of the stock. 

Third, the team will include stocks with the strongest views in the portfolio (Table 1). The positioning of the stock will largely be determined by its upside (valuation-driven) and conviction levels, amongst other factors like liquidity and potential outcomes.

Last, the team will continue to monitor the portfolio’s underlying position and ensure compliance with the mandate. A weekly review meeting is conducted whereby the consistency of views and portfolio positions relative to valuations are re-evaluated which is done to support sell discipline. 

Table 1: Examples of recent high-conviction value ideas

Name of Holding

Reasons for inclusion





Honda


  • Valuation outlier compared to longer terms sustainable earnings. Valuations are cheap versus market and peers.
  • Market is focused on recalls, quality costs, and increasing extrapolation of thematic issues. This is driving pessimism towards the company.
  • However, the team believes Honda’s operation remains strong and sees sustainable margins. The team forecasts a significant upside.






Panasonic Corp.


  • For the past decade, Panasonic has struggled in fiercely competitive industries, generating low margins to the detriment of returns.
  • As a result, the market has low confidence in the company. This has been reflected in the company’s notably low valuation.
  • However, the team sees operational benefits from restructuring as well as lesser-than-expected downside (Market overestimates the impact of business cyclicality and Tesla exposure). This creates upside opportunity as valuation eventually re-rates.


Source: Eastspring Investments

Data: 28 Feb 2023


An unconstrained approach that will work well for Japanese equities


The fund adopts a value approach and is actively managed with an unconstrained investment approach, focusing on the high conviction ideas across the capitalisation spectrum. We believe an active, unconstrained approach works well for Japanese equity markets. 

This is because the Japanese stock market is under-researched relative to other DMs. There are generally fewer analysts covering Japanese-listed companies as compared to US-listed or European-listed companies. Moreover, the Japanese stock market has a big pool of mid-to-small cap plays of varying quality. All these factors create alpha opportunities for active managers (see related article) and an unconstrained approach allows them to screen beyond the benchmark and identify promising companies.

Related article 

Strong, long-term outperformance against benchmark and peers 


The Eastspring Investments – Japan Dynamic Fund has a strong track record of outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI Japan Index. Since its inception in July 2006, the fund has delivered a total return of 144%, almost tripled the benchmark’s return of 54% (as of end-Mar 2023) (Chart 5). The fund also beat the MSCI Japan Value Index (63%) in the same period. The strong outperformance is a reflection of the fund’s long history of exploiting market extremes as the bulk of excess return was generated during Japan’s equities bull market, as seen during 4Q12, 1Q16, and 2Q20.

The fund has started to demonstrate consistency in maintaining its outperformance in recent years, a challenging task for actively-managed funds. On a calendar year basis, the fund has managed to significantly beat its benchmark in recent years when Value investing started to outperform as the macro backdrop shifts (Chart 6). Against some of our popular Japanese equity strategies, the fund has also been a strong performer. Not only has it beaten its peers in the year-to-date, but it also delivered strong outperformance across the past five years (Chart 7).

Chart 5: The fund has greatly outperformed both the MSCI Japan and Japan Value index

 

Chart 6: The fund managed to beat its benchmark significantly in recent years when Value investing started to outperform 

 

Chart 7: The fund has been a strong performer against many of our popular Japanese equity strategies

 

An effective, proven value strategy for Japan

 
To summarise, we are positive on Japanese equities - our top equity pick. We like Japanese value stocks, which reflects our preference for the value factor in the current backdrop. We believe Japan’s value stocks remain well-supported while being in an advantageous position when compared to value stocks of other developed markets.  

Overall, for investors seeking exposure to Japanese value stocks, we recommend the Eastspring Investments - Japan Dynamic AS SGD. We like the fund for its strong, long-term track record of outperformance against peer funds and its benchmark. We also like the team’s systematic value strategy which has proven to be effective in the Japanese market. Lastly, we think the fund’s unconstrained approach, focusing on the high conviction ideas, has given it an edge in a market like Japan which has a clear case for active investment.

However, as the fund runs a high-conviction strategy, its portfolio is fairly concentrated with about 30-50 constituents at any one point in time, as compared to the benchmark’s holding of above 230 constituents. As such, investors should note that the fund’s short-term returns can be volatile.

While we recommend investors add exposure to Japanese value stocks, its growth counterpart should not be neglected. Japanese growth stocks provide exposure to industries that the nation excels in, including semiconductors, electronics, robotics, and pharmaceuticals. At the same time, it also provides exposure to structural trends like cashless payments and digitalisation which are at an early stage in Japan relative to the rest of the world. Thus, many Japanese companies that are aligned with these trends have a longer runway for growth. 

In sum, we believe investors can benefit from holding a blend of value and growth stocks. However, we think it is prudent for investors to remain selective when it comes to picking growth stocks in the current backdrop. We prefer high-quality growth names with strong balance sheets and earnings resiliency. 

The Research Team is part of iFAST Financial Pte Ltd

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