Funds

Is the Adani controversy a cause for concern for your portfolio?

As Indian equities get rocked by the Adani controversy, we assess its impact and the exposure of our recommended Indian equity fund.

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  • Published on 03 Feb 2023

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  • Our recommended Indian equity fund, the UTI India Dynamic Equity USD, has no exposure to Adani Group companies. Most of the Group’s companies belong to the commodities, energy, utilities, and infrastructure sectors, all of which the fund has stayed away from. 
  • While the fund has a high concentration in the financials sector, the Indian banking industry’s exposure to Adani Group’s debt is estimated to be limited, especially for private banks. There is likely little systemic risk. 
  • However, this situation may continue to weigh on sentiment for Indian equities which have already mellowed as investors re-allocate to China equities after its re-opening.
  • While we remain negative on Indian equities, it is on our watch list due to its compelling secular growth opportunities. For investors who are already underweight Indian equities, we do not see the Adani controversy as a catalyst to sell. For investors who wish to seek exposure to Indian equities, we advocate investing via a regular savings plan.

The Adani controversy in a nutshell


Adani Group is a multinational conglomerate company and is one of the largest companies in India. It is a diversified corporation with interests in several industries, such as ports and logistics, agribusiness, energy, real estate, financial services, aerospace and defence. Over the last weekend of January, Hindenburg Research, a short-selling focused research firm, released a report with allegations against the Group on stock manipulation, misappropriate use of tax havens, accounting fraud scheme, and alarming debt levels. 

These allegations have caused a storm within the Indian equity market as Adani Group’s companies sold off dramatically, dragging Indian equity indices, such as the Sensex Index and the Nifty 50 Index, along with it. Since the first report, Adani Group has responded at length to challenge the allegations which were subsequently met with a reply from Hindenburg Research, doubling down on its initial stance. 

The ensuing war of words between both parties have given birth to great uncertainties within Indian markets. This has dragged the region’s equity indices lower over the past week as investors fear a potential spillover to India’s banking industry. Given these concerns, global banks including Citigroup and Credit Suisse, have stopped accepting Adani securities as collateral for margin loans. The Reserve Bank of India has also moved swiftly to enquire local banks about their exposure to the Adani group of companies. 

Chart 1: Adani Group companies have fallen between -14% to -46% since 24 January, after the Hindenburg report was released 

 

Is our recommended fund exposed?


Our recommended Indian equity fund is the UTI India Dynamic Equity Fund. It is an active strategy by UTI Asset Management, a home-grown Indian fund manager. While the fund was only incepted on 15 July 2015, the strategy’s track record goes way back to 27 Dec 2006, marketed under a different name (Shinsei UTI India Fund). This fund follows a bottom-up approach that focuses on the microeconomics of the portfolio's businesses. It invests primarily in growth-oriented Indian stocks which are listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange in India. 

The UTI India Dynamic Equity Fund has no exposure to Adani Group companies. Most of the Adani Group companies belong to the commodities, energy, utilities, and infrastructure sectors, all of which the fund has stayed away from. The fund managers lacked conviction about the ability of businesses in these sectors to maintain healthy balance sheets and generate high returns on capital across cycles. 

According to UTI Asset Management, the firm does not hold any bonds of the Adani Group in any of their fixed-income schemes at the moment. It also does not cover any Adani Group stocks in their equity investment universe aside for Adani Ports. There are several reasons why the fund managers have stayed away from investing in Adani stocks. 

Firstly, the businesses tend to be very capital-intensive, with long gestation projects. As such, returns are only realised very late in the projects’ lifecycle. Secondly, the Group is also highly leveraged, especially the top 5-6 entities. The total net debt is around USD 26 billion. Thirdly, the fund managers also have corporate governance concerns about the Adani Group and this latest controversy has vindicated their decision to avoid Adani Group companies.

What about indirect exposure?


The indirect exposure is also limited. While the fund has a high concentration in the financials sector (25%) (Chart 2) - predominantly across Indian private banks - the industry’s exposure to Adani Group’s debt is limited. According to Adani Group’s management, out of a total debt of USD 30 billion, USD 9 million (or 23%) is with the Indian banking system. Furthermore, according to reports by CLSA, the exposure of private banks to Adani Group’s debt is less than 10% - this includes major listed banks that the fund holds (such as the ICICI bank). In our view, there should be low risk for Indian private banks as the exposure is minor and should be manageable. 

Chart 2: The fund has a high concentration in the financials sector (25%)

 
On a broader level, we also see little systemic risk and believe any impact on the Indian financial system is likely very limited. Adani Group's debt only accounts for a marginal 0.5% of total loans across the Indian banking sector, which is insignificant to trigger a large-scale risk. Moreover, due to the various banking reforms enacted in recent years, the Indian banking system is also healthier and more resilient against shocks like this. Lastly, regulations by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) help safeguard the Indian banking system. The RBI allows for no more than 25% of a bank's available eligible capital base to be exposed to any one group of connected companies.

However, the fund is subjected to investors’ sentiment towards Indian equities, which may be soured by the Adani controversy. Investors have not viewed Indian equities kindly as major indices (Sensex, Nifty 50, and MSCI India) have declined since this debacle regardless of their underlying exposure to Adani-related companies (Chart 3). This is rather untimely as sentiment towards Indian equities has already mellowed as investors re-allocate to China equities after news of its re-opening. Nonetheless, we think markets should stabilise once there is greater clarity on the financial impact, which is likely limited.

Chart 3: Exposure to Adani Group and its affiliated companies  

 

Why we continue to favour this fund


A compelling reason why we continue to favour the UTI India Dynamic Equity Fund is that its investment strategy aligns with our long-term view of India. The fund primarily seeks out high quality and high growth companies with strong competitive advantages. In particular, the fund manager invests in companies that would benefit from some of the structural drivers within India. Some of the long-term strategic themes for the fund include industries from consumer goods and services, autos, financial services, IT, and healthcare. 

As we have repeatedly expressed in our research articles, we think India has one of the most promising secular growth potential (Table 1). In our view, India’s long-term growth is buttressed by powerful domestic tailwinds, such as demographic dividends, middle-class transformation, and consumption evolution. Positive reform momentum has also helped unlock greater growth potential and opportunities in many industries, including banking, manufacturing, and health services. Therefore, we believe the fund’s positioning is in line with our long-term view on India.

We also like the fund as UTI Asset Management is an Indian equity manager with a local DNA, with most of the fund’s investment/research team based on the ground in India. As an equity strategy investing in a less efficient markets, this may present itself as a competitive advantage over its non-India based fund peers, since the analysts/fund managers would likely have a better understanding of the services and products of the companies under their coverage.

Related articles:

Table 1: List of major reforms and secular domestic tailwinds

Reforms and secular domestic tailwinds


Demographic dividend

  • Maturing of India’s age structure is expected to drive upward income mobility as workforce and income rise, leading to greater consumption across all categories.
  • India currently has a favourable share of working-age population (15-59 years old, almost 60% of its total population) which is expected to increase further.



Middle-class transformation

  • The middle-class population in India is almost 400 million strong and is expected to reach over 800 million by 2030.
  • Spending by the middle class accounts for more than 70% of total expenses, and this value is expected to exceed 80% by 2030.


Evolution in consumer behavior


  • Consumer behaviour in India has rapidly evolved in recent years. Premiumisation and consumption upgrading will fuel incremental spending across both goods and services.


Reduced corporate tax rates

  • In September 2019, corporate tax rates were reduced from 30% to 25% for existing companies, and from 25% to 17% for new companies. Corporate tax rate in India is now one of the lowest in Asia.


Supply-chain diversification

  • India is a prime location for businesses that want to diversify away from China given the nation’s wage advantage, pro-business environment, and government incentives.
  • This trend has exacerbated in recent years given the volatile geopolitical climate.  


Production-linked incentive scheme

  • Launched in 2020 (until 2025-2026), this scheme provides support in the form of financial incentives to 14 key sectors in India. 
  • It aims to boost domestic manufacturing, attract large investments, create jobs, enhance export capabilities, and reduce import dependency. 

Our thoughts and key takeaways 


In our view, the impact of the Adani controversy on broader Indian equities is likely limited at the current moment. As outlined in the sections above, major Indian equity indices have little exposure to Adani Group companies. Private banks only have minor exposure to Adani Group’s debt, while the overall systemic risk to India’s financial sector also remains low. We believe the recent selling is likely sentiment-driven, a knee-jerk reaction in response to this sudden development. 

Our recommended fund for Indian equities, the UTI India Dynamic Equity USD, has no exposure to Adani stocks. While the fund has a notable allocation to Indian banks, which may have exposure to Adani Group’s debt, it is not concerning as such exposure is small and manageable. Furthermore, the team believes the Adani controversy is unlikely to have a domino effect on the larger market. For investors looking to tap on India’s growth story, this is our recommended fund given its ability to filter and select high growth, and high quality Indian companies. 

While we remain negative on Indian equities due to high valuations and the risk of earnings downgrade, we are keeping it on our watch list due to its compelling secular growth opportunities. For Investors who are already underweight Indian equities in their portfolios, we do not see the Adani controversy as a catalyst to sell. For investors who wish to seek exposure to Indian equities, we advocate investing via a regular savings plan, aligning their investment horizon with the nation’s long-term economic potential.

The Research Team is part of iFAST Financial Pte Ltd.


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