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Fund Friday: Ride on the global recovery with Japanese equities

Japanese equities are a good play on the global recovery. We explore the reasons why, as well as the case for active investment.

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  • Published on 12 Feb 2022

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  • We hold a positive view on Japanese equities in 2022 given the steadily improving macro backdrop, supportive policy direction, rosy earnings outlook, attractive valuations and positive corporate governance changes.

  • There is a strong case for active investment in Japan due to (i) a wide universe of high quality mid to small-cap names, (ii) the nature of being under-researched, and (iii) the benefits of security selection in Japan’s leading industries.

  • The JPMorgan Japan Equity Fund is our recommended fund. The fund focuses on high conviction ideas in Japan and utilises a bottom-up approach, focusing on the economics of the business, sustainability of value creation, governance, risk, liquidity, and expected return.

  • The fund has been a very strong performer against popular Japanese equity strategies and the benchmark since the fund’s inception. Leveraging on structural growth opportunities, the fund has an established record of picking quality companies within Japan’s fast-growing industries.

Japan to play catch-up with global peers in 2022


We hold a positive view on the outlook of Japanese equities in 2022. On the macro front, we expect a stable and firm recovery this year, one that is non-volatile, with fewer distortions from the state of emergency (SOE). Consumption, exports, and public investments have rebounded last quarter as the nation exits SOE. This implies an improvement in recovery momentum as we enter 2022, which we expect to partially offset the growth drag arising from the recent Omicron wave.

A further re-opening of its economy, including international travel, later this year should also support recovery momentum in the second half of the year. Moreover, policies remain supportive of growth, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintaining accommodative monetary conditions and Japan’s recent fiscal stimulus providing a tailwind to the economy. While another SOE remains a key risk to growth, this is likely mitigated by Japan’s high vaccination and low hospitalisation rates. 

In our view, Japanese equities (as gauged by the Nikkei 225 Index) should generate relatively stronger earnings growth amongst developed markets (DMs) over the next couple of years. We expect a robust earnings growth rate of 19% and 11% for this fiscal year and the next respectively. Corporate earnings revisions for Japanese corporates, which are often tied to global growth (as seen from their strong correlation to global manufacturing activity), should remain positive and supported by a rebound in global economic activity, especially as Asia continues its re-opening this year.

Equity valuations are also attractive, both on an absolute and relative basis. Japanese equities are trading at a forward PE ratio of 14.4X FY2023 earnings (as of 7 February 2022). This represents an upside potential of 25% by FY2023, based on our fair PE ratio of 18.0X for Japan’s equity market. Japan is also one of the cheapest DMs, trading at a significant -17% discount to US equities as compared to a historical average premium of 2%.

On a bottom-up basis, Japanese equities are undergoing positive structural changes. Corporate governance standards, which has lagged DM peers, have been steadily improving over the past decade with the recent revision of Japan’s Stewardship Code (2020) and Corporate Governance Code (2021) accelerating this improvement. As a result, shareholder returns, in terms of dividends and buybacks, have risen significantly due to stronger balance sheets, more shareholder-friendly policies, and capital discipline. This will lead to an enhancement in shareholder value in the long-term.

Chart 1: Japan equities index price and projected EPS growth



The case for active investment in Japan


Japan is one of the few DMs where there is a clear case for active investment.

First, the Japanese stock market has a large concentration of mid and small-cap names of variable quality. Therefore, an active approach can uncover and leverage on investment opportunities within the higher-growth good-quality mid and small-cap names. 

The importance of active management is reinforced by the wide return dispersion seen within the Japanese stock market. Over the past 10 years, the average total return for the top and bottom performing quartile (25%) of the Japanese stock market was around 20% and -3% respectively, with a wide return dispersion of almost 23% (in SGD terms) (Chart 2). This shows the importance of security selection as a potential top-performing stock (as compared to a bottom-performing one) may significantly add to portfolio performance.

Second, the Japanese stock market is generally under-researched, especially when compared to DM peers. Market data shows that as of end-2020, a staggering 71% of Japanese companies are being covered by three or less analysts, almost double that in Europe and US (Chart 3). In our view, poor sell-side coverage in Japan creates opportunities for active managers, especially in picking companies with strong fundamentals and growth outlook, while concurrently avoiding companies with inherent issues.

Last, we believe active security selection has an edge when it comes to stocking picking within Japan’s global leading industries. These are often industries that leverage on innovation and secular themes such as internet, automation, and precision instruments. While many Japanese companies within these industries possess strong global competitive advantages and are market leaders, there is also a growing pool of newer companies. This makes active security picking even more vital when it comes to separating potential winners from laggards in these rising industries. 

Chart 2: Wide return dispersion within Japanese equities, especially in the recent five years.


 

Chart 3: Coverage for Japanese companies are the lowest amongst the DM space 

 

JPMorgan Japan Equity Fund: Our recommended Japanese equity fund


The JPMorgan Japan Equity Fund aims to provide long-term capital growth by investing primarily in Japanese companies. The fund is managed with an unconstrained investment approach, focusing on the high conviction investment ideas in Japan to pursue high alpha. The investment team at JPMorgan believes that Japan remains an inefficient market with many attractive investment opportunities, especially in the under-researched mid to small-cap space. Furthermore, the team seeks to avoid companies and sectors that face structural issues, even if they are large constituents of the benchmark.

The fund also utilises a bottom-up approach by focusing on the economics of the business, sustainability of value creation, impact of governance, risk profile, liquidity, and expected return. Furthermore, the fund leverages on structural growth opportunities and seeks to invest in themes such as internet, automation, Japan brand, and ageing population.


What we like about the fund


A compelling reason why we favour the JPMorgan Japan Equity Fund is its strong long-term track record. The fund has been a strong performer against some of our popular Japanese equity strategies, as well as the benchmark TOPIX Index since the fund’s inception. Not only has it consistently generated an excess return over its benchmark, but the amount has also widened over the past five years (Chart 4).  


When the pandemic crippled the global economy, investors rotated to quality names with strong balance sheets, stocks that would be able to survive the storm. This explains the fund’s outperformance in 2020, as it was well-positioned given its tilt towards premium and quality names that have strong financials and cash flow generation.

Chart 4: Fund has consistently outperformed its peers and the benchmark 

 
We also favour the fund’s strategy of leveraging on structural opportunities and the ability to pick quality companies within these industries (Chart 5). In our view, long-term structural trends in Japan are at a very early stage versus the rest of the world, and thus provide a long runway for growth. These trends include growing e-commerce in a physical-retail dominated industry, cashless payments and digitalisation in a largely paper-based society, and a push towards renewable energy. While picking winners in a rising industry is challenging, the fund has a proven track record of selecting quality companies in such industries, a testament to its robust selection methodology. 

Overall, for investors seeking exposure to Japanese equities, we recommend the JPMorgan Funds - Japan Equity A (dist) SGD. However, moving ahead, with the Fed preparing to hike interest rates as soon as next month, we expect this to exert depreciation pressure on the JPY relative to the USD. As such, for investors who are concerned about currency risks, they can opt for the JPMorgan Funds - Japan Equity A (acc) USD-H of the fund.

Chart 5: The fund is invested in structural growth themes



The Research Team is part of iFAST Financial Pte Ltd.  


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