After the fall of China Fortune Land and Evergrande, what’s next for Ping An Insurance?

Ping An’s impairment losses on its China Fortune Land stake and the recent Evergrande debt crisis have led investors to grow increasingly concerned over its Chinese real estate exposure, with its share price falling by another -30% since our last update. We believe such concerns are overblown, and Ping An has the potential to more than double its share price.

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  • Published on 01 Oct 2021

After the fall of China Fortune Land and Evergrande, what’s next for Ping An Insurance?  | Open a FREE FSMOne account and manage all your investments conveniently in ONE place
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Ping An Insurance has written off the majority of its investments in China Fortune Land in 1H21. However, the market continued to punish Ping An Insurance for its exposure to other real estate developers.

We believe that the three developers Ping An Insurance is invested in have stronger balance sheets than China Fortune Land and Evergrande, giving them a better chance to tide through the real estate market slowdown.

Ping An has also shared that its real estate exposure is only 4.8% of its insurance investment portfolio, translating to about RMB 186 billion out of its RMB 3.8 trillion investment portfolio. Furthermore, Ping An has disclosed that it is not holding any Evergrande’s equity or debt.

We continue to hold a positive view of the Chinese insurance market as we still see plenty of room for growth in this space. 

For investors who can stomach and look past the short-term volatility, we believe Ping An Insurance (HKEX:2318) is trading at attractive valuations. Not only it has the potential to double, but it is also offering an average dividend yield of about 6% in the next two years. 

Ever since Ping An Insurance (HKEX:2318) announced that it will be acquiring a majority stake in the newly-established Founder Group in April this year, we have witnessed its share price tumbling by almost -20%, wiping out the gains it has accumulated since the start of the year. 


Unfortunately, its share price has continued to plummet as Ping An Insurance is one of the top shareholders of indebted real estate developer China Fortune Land, which defaulted on its offshore bond early this year and is currently undergoing a debt restructuring program. 

To add fuel to the fire, China Evergrande Group (HKEX:3333), China’s second-largest property developer, started showing signs of a liquidity crunch in June. Fast forward to today, it has missed several interest payments to its creditors and the market is now expecting a debt restructuring for Evergrande. 

This has eroded investor confidence in Chinese developers as we saw a huge plunge across their stock and bond prices over the past few weeks. The impact was also felt in other areas of the market that have links to the Chinese real estate sector, such as financial stocks. Ping An Insurance was not spared either, with its share price falling by another -30% since our last update. 

In this article, we will be discussing the impact of the ongoing real estate crisis on Ping An Insurance, along with some key takeaways from its 1H21 results. 

Takeaways from 2021 interim results


Ping An Insurance’s net profit attributable to shareholders fell by -15.5% year-on-year (YOY) in 1H 2021, largely dragged down by provisions for impairment losses on its exposure to China Fortune Land. According to Ping An Insurance, it has written off approximately 80% of its equity investment and 60% of its debt investment related to China Fortune Land during this period.  

On a brighter note, Ping An Insurance’s operating profit grew by 10.1% year-on-year (YOY), as its underlying core business segments recover from the pandemic (Table 1), except its life & health insurance business segment. Total new business value (NBV) growth in the 1H21 continued to fall due to lower margins and a shrinking agency channel salesforce. 

Table 1: Ping An Insurance various business segments’ operating profits 
Business segments 1H20 1H21 Change
Life & Health Insurance 51,127 49,495 -3.2%
Property & Casualty Insurance 8,234 10,741 30.4%
Banking  7,927 10,191 28.6%
Asset Management 5,831 8,008 37.3%
Technology 3,438 6,236 81.4%
Total operating profit* 74,310 81,836 10.1%
Source: Ping An Insurance's 2021 interim report, iFAST compilations
*After taking into account other businesses and elimination

Ping An also continued to report an increasing proportion of customers holding multiple contracts across different subsidiaries, suggesting that its cross-selling efforts are materialising (Chart 1).

Chart 1: An increasing number of customers holding multiple contracts with different subsidiaries


Concerns over Ping An’s real estate exposure may be overblown 


As mentioned earlier, Ping An Insurance has written off the majority of its investments in China Fortune Land in 1H21. However, the market continued to punish Ping An Insurance for its exposure to other real estate developers. Based on data from Bloomberg, Ping An also has substantial investments in three other real estate developers – China Jinmao Holdings, Country Garden as well as CIFI Holdings.

As Chinese banks push to strengthen their risk management measures and become more prudent in lending to the real estate sector, refinancing risk is likely to become a concern among the overleveraged Chinese real estate developers. 

That said, the three real estate developers have much stronger balance sheets as compared to China Fortune Land, which had met none of the requirements under the Three Red Lines. Based on their 1H21 financial statements, China Jinmao has met all requirements under the Three Red Lines, while Country Garden and CIFI Holdings have met two out of three requirements. As a result, all three of them are still allowed debt growth rates of 10-15% (Table 2). 

Table 2: Ping An’s investments in other real estate developers
Company name Ping An investments Colour code Debt growth allowed
Jinmao 14.1% Green 15%
Country Garden 8.0% Yellow 10%
CIFI 6.5% Yellow 10%
Source: iFAST compilations, respective companies' 2021 interim report
Data as of August 2021

While we acknowledge that growth in the real estate sector is likely to slow down as deleveraging continues, we believe that developers with stronger balance sheets have a better chance to tide through the real estate market slowdown. The strength of their balance sheets, as indicated by their ability to meet at least two of the three required thresholds under the Three Red Lines policy, will provide them with the room to conduct prudent land bank expansion. This will ultimately allow them to generate healthy and sustainable earnings growth.


Ping An has also shared that its real estate exposure is only 4.8% of its insurance investment portfolio, translating to about RMB 186 billion out of its RMB 3.8 trillion investment portfolio. Furthermore, Ping An has disclosed that it is not holding any Evergrande’s equity or debt.

While any potential write off in Ping An’s real estate-related investments is still possible and will hurt its overall profit, we believe the sell-off in the last three months that shaved RMB 400 billion off Ping An’s market value seems a little excessive and may have been overblown.

China’s insurance market still expected to see strong growth in the longer term 


At its very core, Ping An Insurance is still an insurance company in both the L&H and P&C business segments. We continue to hold a positive view of the Chinese insurance market as we still see plenty of room for growth in this space. As one of the largest insurance players in China, Ping An Insurance is bound to benefit as China is expected to lead the rebound as the world recovers from the pandemic, with its life and non-life premiums projected to grow at an average of 7% and 8.5% respectively in the next two years (Chart 2).

Chart 2: Strong growth in China’s insurance premium in the next two years 
 
One of the key drivers of China’s insurance premium growth rate is the fact that many citizens in China remain severely underinsured, as evident from its low level of insurance penetration (measured by gross written premiums as a percentage of a country’s GDP) and insurance density (measured by insurance premiums per capita) as compared to other developed countries (Chart 3). 

Chart 3: Low insurance density and penetration rate in China

While China’s insurance density and insurance penetration rate may have improved gradually over the years, they are still a far cry from its international peers, as shown in Chart 3. Therefore, we believe that there is still a significant amount of unmet demand for insurance in China, suggesting a huge potential for Chinese insurers like Ping An Insurance to bridge the gap.

Attractive upside potential due to the market sell-off


For investors who can stomach and look past the short-term volatility, we believe Ping An Insurance is currently trading at attractive valuations. Our end-2023 target price of HKD 120 is based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology. At its current share price of HKD 55, Ping An Insurance has the potential to more than double. Investors can also expect an attractive dividend yield of 6% in the next two years. 

Table 3: Ping An’s SOTP valuation
Business segment Shareholding Valuation Valuation methodology Multiple Weighted valuation
Life & Health 99.5% 379,850 P/B 3.0 1,139,550
P&C 99.5% 140,057 P/B 2.0 276,778
Banking 58.0% 336,692 Market cap 1.0 195,147
Fintech & Health-tech Disclosed 87,406 Disclosed Valuation - 87,406
Securities 97% 35,312 Peers P/B 2.0 70,624
Trust 100% 1,250 Peers P/E 15.0 18,750
Others 100% 43,151 Book value 1.0 43,151
Total 1,831,406
# of shares 17,646
End 2023 target price (RMB) 103.8
End 2023 target price (HKD) 120
Current share price (HKD) 53.3
Upside potential 124.9%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Ping An annual reports, iFAST estimations
Data as of 30 September 2021

Technology, the foundation of Ping An Insurance, has brought in many tangible benefits for Ping An and this has given it a competitive edge over its peers. Coupled with the ongoing shift in the global insurance business to China and the inevitable trend of digitalisation for financial institutions, we continue to favour Ping An Insurance as the preferred choice for investors who wish to capitalise on the fast-growing insurance market.


Chart 4: Ping An Insurance’s share price and earnings 


Declaration:

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities. The analyst who produced this report has a position in Ping An Insurance.

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