Macro Research

iFAST 2026 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Riding the Recovery Wave

The narrative for 2026 appears constructive for fixed income. We see the story in 2026 as one of continued recovery, supported by policy easing, steepening curves, and still-attractive carry. This outlook is your must-read guide to navigating fixed income markets in the year ahead.

Global Fixed Income
Global Fixed Income09 Dec 2025 6924 Views
iFAST 2026 Global Fixed Income Outlook: Riding the Recovery Wave

Our Fixed Income Views for 2026


1. Global rate cuts to continue, setting the stage for steeper curves
2. Opportunities in medium-term bonds – A blend of income and upside potential 
3. Sovereign bonds: Our picks across US, Singapore, Malaysian, and Australian treasuries 
4. IG credit: Stay up the quality ladder. Stick with investment-grade bonds 
5. HY credit: Tapping high-yield bonds for yield, but selectivity remains key
6. EM debt: Modestly positive on EM hard currency bonds


The year in summary 


As 2025 draws to a close, the story of fixed income reads like a familiar chapter, yet with a quieter, steadier rhythm. The year’s recovery unfolded more smoothly than in 2024, even amid the geopolitical turbulence sparked by the “Liberation Day” tariffs. Bond markets began with cautious optimism, and though April brought an unexpected twist—the “Liberation Day” tariffs that briefly rattled bond markets—the recovery story quickly regained its footing.

Throughout the year, global inflation gradually eased, and the ripple effects of tariff pass-through proved far less disruptive than anticipated. This shift emboldened policymakers to cut rates, bolstering market expectations of a renewed easing cycle and supporting bond market returns. Meanwhile, bond yields remained well above the pre-pandemic levels despite rate cuts, offering investors meaningful coupon income, which further enhanced total returns.

Beneath the surface, the recovery was broad-based, with major bond markets posting positive returns across the board (Chart 1). Emerging market (“EM”) hard-currency bonds took centre stage, delivering an 11.6% year-to-date gain while global high yield and global investment-grade corporates followed closely with 11.3% and 9.7% respectively (all returns are as of 5 December, in USD terms). 

Looking ahead, the narrative for 2026 appears constructive for fixed income. We see the story in 2026 as one of continued recovery, supported by synchronized policy easing, steepening curves, and still-attractive levels of carry — factors that together suggest bond markets may have room to climb further. At the same time, a softening global growth backdrop is likely to shift the spotlight back toward high-quality income, reinforcing the appeal of higher credit rating bonds and underscoring the importance of careful security selection.

Chart 1: After a broad recovery in 2025, major bond markets continue to climb higher, generating positive returns year-to-date

 

1. Global rate cuts to continue, setting the stage for steeper curves


A moderating US economic growth, underpinned by a cooling labour market, is likely to set the stage for additional Fed rate cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain broadly contained yet may hover above the Fed’s target, propelled by tariff passthrough and an easing but persistent services inflation. Against this backdrop, the Fed is unlikely to pursue aggressive easing in our opinion. We anticipate a measured approach, with around two rate cuts over the next year, reflecting a delicate balancing act between supporting growth and containing inflationary pressures.

Outside the US, the easing cycle is unfolding at different stages (Chart 2). Many central banks moved decisively in 2025, front-loading easing to support growth and cutting rates more aggressively this year. Entering 2026, we expect the pace of cuts from these central banks to slow—or even pause—as policymakers are again converging towards rate cut caution, driven by concerns over tariff passthrough and persistent inflation pressures.

Looking ahead, we expect major treasury curves to steepen further (Chart 3), with short and medium-term yields likely to drift lower as central banks press forward with measured rate cuts. By contrast, long-term yields may have less room to decline, held in check by a tug-of-war between downward pressure from rate cuts and upward pressure from higher inflation expectations and country/ region-specific fiscal uncertainties.

Chart 2: Many major central banks have cut rates in 2025


Chart 3: UST curve steepened in 2025, led by 2Y – 10Y in 1H25 and 1M – 1Y in 2H25

 

2. Opportunities in medium-term bonds – A blend of income and upside potential 


As rate cuts extend into 2026 and global treasury curves steepen, we see compelling opportunities in medium-term bonds, which 1) may capture meaningful price appreciation if yields decline, given sufficient duration (Chart 4), while also 2) benefiting from better roll-down returns, as they sit along the steepest segment of the curve. Meanwhile, medium-term yields remain decent and offer a meaningful pickup over their shorter-term counterparts (1-2-year tenor). In our view, this positioning offers a blend of income and upside potential in a global rate cut environment.

(Roll-down return refers to an investing strategy in fixed income where an investor buys bonds on an upward-sloping yield curve—typically longer-tenor bonds that offer higher yields. As time passes and the bond’s remaining maturity shortens, it “rolls down” the yield curve to a point where yields are lower. Since bond prices rise when yields fall, the investor can sell the bond at a higher price, realizing capital gains (roll-down gains) while also earning steady interest income throughout the holding period)

While opportunities exist in medium-term bonds, we see no rush to exit short-term bonds as elevated yields continue to provide decent near-term income while serving as an effective short-term parking facility. Additional rate cuts could also provide further price appreciation for short-term bonds, despite their limited duration. While rate cuts may pressure short-term yields lower, a measured pace of easing should provide investors with sufficient time to opportunistically extend duration and reallocate into medium-term bonds.

For risk-averse investors or those seeking government bonds, within the key markets we cover, we favour 1) 5 to 10-year US Treasuries, 2) 5 to 10-year Singapore Government Securities, 3) 5 to 7-year Malaysian Government Securities, and 4) 7 to 10-year Australian Treasuries. For investors seeking corporate exposure, we are comfortable with longer tenors as corporate yield curves are generally steeper, suggesting greater compensation through incremental yield pickup for extended maturities (Charts 5 and 6).

Investors can also consider fixed-income products that offer exposure to the intermediate term of the yield curve. We recommend PIMCO Income Fund and T. Rowe Price - Diversified Income Bond Fund, which are both our recommended investment-grade bond funds (highlighted below). 

For short-duration products, we recommend United SGD Fund and Amova SGD Short Term Bond Fund (formerly Nikko AM). Those looking for an ultra-short-duration or money market exposure across currencies can consider iFAST SGD Enhanced Liquidity Fund, iFAST USD Enhanced Liquidity Fund, Fullerton SGD Cash Fund, and  Amundi Funds Cash USD A2 (C) USD Amundi USD Cash Funds.

Chart 4: Estimated 12-month returns for 5–10Y US Treasuries under different yield-change scenarios.


Chart 5: USD corporate bond curves are much steeper than the UST curve…

 

Chart 6: … the same can be observed for EUR corporate bond curves


3. Sovereign bonds: Our picks across US, Singapore, Malaysian, and Australian treasuries


For US treasuries, we believe the ultra short-term T-bills (6-months) continue to offer appealing yield, providing a decent yield pickup over the longer 1 to 2-year T-bills. For investors aiming to preserve capital while still getting a decent yield, ultra-short T-bills stand out as a safe parking ground. Further along the curve, we are increasingly constructive on medium-term US treasuries (5 to 10-year), which stand to benefit from price gains if the Fed cuts rates, enhanced roll-down returns as the yield curve steepens, and still provide solid yields. 

Turning to Singapore sovereigns, the sharp yield decline in 6-month T-bills this year has eroded their appeal, prompting us to step away from our prior outright preference. We now see more value in medium-term SG government securities (“SGS”) (5 to 10-year), where the yield pickup is higher. Beyond the 10-year tenor, we still see little incentive to take exposure as the treasury curve is much flatter, suggesting that the incremental yield pickup is unattractive to justify the increase in duration risk.

For Malaysian Government Securities (“MGS”), we maintain our preference for the 5 to 7-year treasury notes, where the upward-sloping curve continues to reward investors for moving modestly down the maturity spectrum. We see the belly of the curve as the sweet spot, offering compelling value as long-dated yields are only marginally higher. In contrast, for Australian Government Securities (AGS), value is emerging further out on the curve. The curve has steepened meaningfully in 2025 - driven primarily by a downshift in front-end yields, with middle to long-end yields drifting higher. We favour the 7 to 10-year AGS notes, which now sit on the steepest part of the Australian curve and offer strong value.

Chart 7: Treasury yield curves are steeper in 2025. We see value in medium-term bonds

 

4. IG credit: Stay up the quality ladder. Stick with investment-grade bonds


Despite rate cuts and credit spreads sitting near cycle tights, aggregate yields for Investment Grade (“IG”) corporate bonds remain appealing relative to history at near 4.4% — placing them in the 81st percentile over the past 15 years and more than 100 bps above long-term averages (Chart 8). In the current backdrop, IG corporate bonds can offer a meaningful yield pickup over high-grade government bonds of similar tenor, delivering extra income without taking on significantly higher risk.

Credit fundamentals for IG issuers have also largely remained healthy, and we expect this resilience to continue even as global growth moderates. Issuer earnings have stayed largely stable, and balance sheets remain healthy, keeping the likelihood of rating downgrades or “fallen angel” risk relatively low. As a result, the risk of meaningful spread widening (which can translate to mark-to-market losses) appears limited. In a softer growth environment, the natural pull of a flight-to-quality bond may help to further anchor IG credit spreads.

IG bonds generally offer lower yields than their high-yield peers, reflecting narrower spreads and lower credit risk. However, in today’s environment, the incremental yield from taking on riskier bonds has compressed sharply, leaving little incentive for investors to move down the credit spectrum. At an index level, global high yield (“HY”) bonds currently offer a mere 220bps pickup over global IG corporate bonds - well below the long-term average of 365bps (Chart 9) - making the trade-off between additional yield and higher credit risk far less compelling.

For the reasons above, we remain positive on IG bonds entering 2026. Today, higher-than-average yields offered by IG bond indices continue to provide a good entry point, particularly for long-term investors (Chart 10), adding predictability to returns while riding out near-term market volatility. At a broad market level, we prefer the more diversified, global IG bonds over their Asian IG counterpart as spreads for the latter are generally trading tighter. 

For Global IG bonds, investors can consider PIMCO Income Fund Admin Cl Inc SGD-H and T. Rowe Price - Diversified Income Bond Fund, both of which are highly diversified funds with exposure across multiple segments of the IG fixed-income universe. For Asian IG bonds, we primarily recommend Manulife Asia Pacific Investment Grade Bond Fund and Eastspring Investments – Asia Select Bond Fund. These actively-managed funds have displayed great track records in credit selection and are poised to navigate bond markets amidst tight spreads. For investors interested in individual securities, Table 1 highlights our IG-rated recommendations across different sectors and currencies.

Chart 8: IG corporate bond yields remain elevated despite rate cuts


Chart 9:  Yield pickup of global HY over IG corporate bonds, on aggregate, is at extreme lows 

 

Chart 10:  Higher entry yields have strongly correlated with higher forward returns for IG bonds 

 

Table 1: Selected USD and SGD IG corporate bond recommendations

Issues

Issuer

Ask Price

Yield to Maturity/ Call (%)

Years to Maturity/ Call

Bond Credit Rating (S&P/ Fitch)

USD

LGCHM 2.375% 07Jul2031 Corp (USD) 

LG Chemical

89.05

4.63

5.58 / -

BBB / -

LGENSO 5.375% 02Jul2029 Corp (USD)

LG Energy Solution

102.75

4.53

3.56 / -

BBB / -

EMBRBZ 7.000% 28Jul2030 Corp (USD)

Embraer Netherlands Finance

109.80

4.51

4.64/ -

BBB/ BBB-

EMBRBZ 5.980% 11Feb2035 Corp (USD)

Embraer Netherlands

106.75

5.03

9.18/ -

BBB/ BBB-

MEITUA 4.500% 05May2031 Corp (USD)

Meituan

98.85

4.74

5.40 /-

A- / BBB+

MEITUA 4.750% 05Nov2032 Corp (USD)

Meituan

98.75

4.97

6.91/-

A- / BBB+

PHNXLN 5.375% 06Jul2027 Corp (USD)

Phoenix Group

101.35

4.47

1.57/ -

- / BBB+

FWDGHD 5.252% 22Sep2030 Corp (USD)

FWD Group

100.25

5.19

4.79 / -

- / BBB-

FWDGHD 7.635% 02Jul2031 Corp (USD)

FWD Group

110.55

5.41

5.56/ -

- / BBB-

DAESEC 6.000% 26Jan2029 Corp (USD)

Mirae Asset

104.15

4.56

3.13/ -

BBB / -

BNKEA 5.125% 07Jul2028 Corp (USD)

Bank of East Asia

100.80

4.96 / 4.59

2.58 / 1.57

BBB / -

BNKEA 6.750% 27Jun2034 Corp (USD)

Bank of East Asia

104.85

5.83 / 5.23

8.55 / 3.55

BBB / -

HSBC 4.619% 06Nov2031 Corp (USD)

HSBC Holdings

100.20

4.66 / 4.57

5.91 / 4.91

A- / A+

HSBC 8.113% 03Nov2033 Corp (USD)

HSBC Holdings

117.30

5.43 / 5.10

7.91 / 6.91

BBB+ / A-

SOCGEN 5.500% 13Apr2029 Corp (USD)

Societe Generale SA

102.30

4.60 /4.45

3.34 / 2.34

BBB / A-

SOCGEN 6.221% 15Jun2033 Corp (USD)

Societe Generale SA

105.05

5.49 / 5.29

7.52 / 6.52

BBB- / BBB

SGD


HSBC 5.300% 14Mar2033 Corp (SGD)

HSBC Hldg

105.9

3.36 / 2.61

7.26 / 2.26

BBB+ / A-

HSBC 5.300% 26Mar2034 Corp (SGD)

HSBC Hldg

106.7

3.56 / 3.14

8.30 / 3.30

BBB+ / A-

BPCEGP 4.600% 21Jan2035 Corp (SGD)

BPCE SA

105.0

3.45/ 3.29

9.12 / 4.12

BBB / BBB+

BPCEGP 5.000% 08Mar2034 Corp (SGD)

BPCE SA

106.0

3.51 / 3.04

8.25 / 3.25

BBB / BBB+

ACAFP 5.250% 07Sep2033 Corp (SGD)

Credit Agricole SA

106.0

3.56 / 2.95

7.75 / 2.75

BBB+ / A-

ACAFP 3.950% 22Jul2032 Corp (SGD)

Credit Agricole SA

102.3

3.21 / 2.52

6.62 / 1.62

BBB+ / A-

BNP 5.250% 12Jul2032 Corp (SGD)

BNP Paribas

104.2

4.04 / 2.53

6.59 / 1.59

BBB+ / A-

BNP 4.750% 15Feb2034 Corp (SGD)

BNP Paribas

105.4

3.21 / 2.98

8.18 / 3.18

BBB+ / A-

OUECT 2.750% 08Oct2032 Corp (SGD)

OUE REIT

99.35

2.86/ -

6.83 / -

BBB- / -

Sources: Bondsupermart, iFAST Compilations. Data as of 9 December 2025.

5. HY credit: Tapping High-Yield bonds for yield, but selectivity remains key


Global high-yield (“HY”) bonds continue to offer aggregate yields in the 6–8% range across regions (Chart 11). Despite rate cuts and spreads hovering near the cycle trough, aggregate yields remain above long-term averages and offer decent coupon income for investors.

Additionally, high-yield issuers’ balance sheets have held firm amid ongoing trade uncertainties, with broadly stable leverage and coverage ratios (Chart 12), lower refinancing costs, and largely steady earnings. While headlines have spotlighted a few high-profile bankruptcies in recent months, the default risk is concentrated mainly in the ‘CCC’ and lower-rated tranche. Looking ahead, we anticipate some deterioration in credit fundamentals as trade headwinds and global growth soften. However, significant degradation in fundamentals will likely be avoided given varying degrees of regional fiscal stimulus and supportive refinancing conditions - including global rate cuts and strong yield-seeking demand for new issuances.

On the flip side, valuations for global HY bonds have grown increasingly stretched in 2025. Credit spreads remain compressed and are trading around -1.6 standard deviations below their 15-year average, reflecting heightened market optimism. That optimism becomes even more apparent when comparing actual default rates with those implied by spreads. Global HY spreads now price in a default rate near historical lows, while actual trailing 12-month default rates have trended higher (Chart 13).

Furthermore, credit spread risk for HY bonds appears increasingly asymmetric. Without a meaningful uplift in global growth, further spread compression appears limited, especially with spreads near historical lows. Conversely, HY bonds remain vulnerable to spread widening in the event of negative economic surprises (which can translate to mark-to-market losses), leaving more room for widening than compression. 

Overall, with the allure of elevated yields balanced against the risk of spread widening, we stay neutral on HY bonds, recommending investors to remain selective in seeking value in the current environment. At a broad market level, we favor Asian HY bonds, which continue to offer aggregate yields of around 7.6%, higher than peers, despite tight valuations. Moreover, the segment is now comprised of a healthier and more diversified issuer base following the exit of higher-risk issuers. Investors seeking Asian HY bond exposure may consider the United Asian High Yield Bond Fund, while those interested in global HY bonds may look at the BNY Mellon Global Short-Dated High Yield Bond Fund.

For investors considering individual bond issuances, we favor HY issuers that demonstrate resilient balance sheets and exhibit improvements in their credit fundamentals, alongside a preference for shorter-dated issuance. Table 2 highlights our HY-rated recommendations across different sectors and currencies.

Chart 11: HY bond segments are yielding around 6% – 8% on aggregate

 

Chart 12: Interest coverage ratios for global HY issuers have trended below long-term averages

 

Chart 13: Global HY spreads now price in a default rate near historical lows, while the actual trailing 12-month default rates have trended higher

 

Table 2: Selected USD and SGD HY corporate bond recommendations

Issues Issuer Ask Price Yield to Maturity/ Call (%) Years to Maturity/ Call Bond Credit Rating (S&P/ Fitch)
USD
MUTHIN 7.125% 14Feb2028 Corp (USD) Muthoot Finance 102.3 6.00 /- 2.18 / - BB+ / BB+
MUTHIN 6.375% 23Apr2029 Corp (USD) Muthoot Finance 101.5 5.88 / - 3.37 / - BB+ / BB+
RAKUTN 11.250% 15Feb2027 Corp (USD) Rakuten Group 107.3 4.84 / - 1.19/ - BB / -
RAKUTN 9.750% 15Apr2029 Corp (USD) Rakuten Group 111.6 5.89 / - 3.35 / - BB / -
HONGQI 7.050% 10Jan2028 Corp (USD) China Hongqiao Group 103.4 5.32 / - 2.09 / - - / BB+
HONGQI 6.925% 29Nov2028 Corp (USD) China Hongqiao Group 103.8 5.52 / - 2.97 / - BB- / BB+
TEVA 5.125% 09May2029 Corp (USD) Teva Pharma Finance 101.0 4.78/ - 3.42 / - BB / BB+
TEVA 5.750% 01Dec2030 Corp (USD) Teva Pharma Finance 104.4 4.70/ - 4.98 / - BB / BB+
BBVASM 5.125% 18Jan2033 Corp (USD) BBVA Bancomer 97.9 6.26 / 6.20 7.14 / 2.11 BB / BB+
SOCGEN 10.000% Perpetual Corp (USD) Societe Generale SA 111.0  - / 5.85 - / 3.02 BB / BB+
SOCGEN 9.375% Perpetual Corp (USD) Societe Generale SA 107.0  - / 5.54 - /1.95 BB / BB+
SGD
TMGSP 5.500% 31May2028 Corp (SGD) Thomson Medical Group 104.1 3.41 /- 2.47 / - N.R.
TMGSP 4.650% 29Oct2029 Corp (SGD) Thomson Medical Group 104.1 3.52 /- 3.89 / - N.R.
QNMSP 3.950% 10Jul2028 Corp (SGD) Q&M Dental Group SG 101 3.54 / - 2.58 / - N.R.
IREGLB 6.000% 22May2028 Corp (SGD) IREIT Global 103.2 4.62 / - 2.45 / - N.R.
MSFSSP 5.100% 29Oct2029 Corp (SGD) Aspial Lifestyle 100.8 4.87 / - 3.89 / - N.R.
MMFSSP 5.000% 30Oct2028 Corp (SGD) MoneyMax Treasure 100.6 4.77 / - 2.89 / - N.R.
EREIT 6.000% Perpetual Corp (SGD) ESR-REIT 107.0 - / 3.95 - / 3.69 N.R.
SOCGEN 8.250% Perpetual Corp (SGD) Societe Generale SA 106.4  - / 4.06 - /1.60 BB / BB+
Sources: Bondsupermart, iFAST Compilations. Data as of 9 December 2025.
* Given that the majority of SGD issuances lack credit ratings, we added issuances we consider attractive but view as high-yield.

5. EM debt: Modestly positive on EM hard currency bonds


Emerging market (EM) debt continues to benefit from a resilient growth backdrop, with EM GDP growth outpacing that of developed markets (DM) compared to pre-pandemic levels. While trade headwinds have weighed on EM growth, we expect continued resilience supported by policy easing, export gains from AI and technology-related shipments, and improving foreign direct investment.

Macro dynamics also remain favourable for EM debt. Moderating inflation across many EM countries has created room for further monetary easing, which should support EM debt. This is further reinforced by the potential for further Fed rate cuts in 2026, which would give EM central banks the flexibility to lower rates without exerting significant downward pressure on their currencies.

Beneath the hood, EM sovereigns are gradually stitching together a more reassuring credit narrative as 2025 is on track to mark a second consecutive year of net upgrades (more credit upgrades than downgrades), reflecting moderating sovereign risk. Relative to DM, EM public balance sheets appear more contained, with gross government debt projected at roughly 73% of GDP versus about 110% for DMs (Chart 14). Even among the largest EM issuers, government debt ratios remain meaningfully below DM levels, despite varying fiscal balance (Chart 15). Market pricing is also echoing these shifts as credit default swaps for major EM sovereigns—an indicator of perceived fiscal, political, and external risk—have edged lower year-to-date, pointing to lower perceived sovereign risk.

Within the EM debt universe, we prefer hard currency bonds over local currency peers. The USD has weakened materially in 2025, leaving limited room for further decline in the coming years, which may reduce the currency tailwind for EM local currency bonds. Moreover, we believe any relative strengthening in EM currencies is likely to only benefit a smaller set of currencies, such as the higher-yielding ones (like the South African Rand, Mexican Peso, and Brazilian Real).

EM hard currency bonds continue to offer elevated aggregate yields around 5.5%, providing decent yield pickup over the 10Y US treasury and carry that is just modestly below that of high-yield bonds (Chart 16). For investors seeking EM hard currency exposure, active management can add value in this complex market. We recommend the PIMCO Emerging Markets Bond Fund, which has consistently performed well relative to peers.

Chart 14: EM government debt looks more manageable than DM and is expected to remain so moving forward

 

Chart 15: Among the largest EM issuers, debt ratios remain meaningfully below DM levels, despite varying fiscal balance


Chart 16:  EM hard currency bonds continue to offer decent aggregate yields and pickup over the 10Y UST

 
Declaration:
For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) holds a position in FWDGHD 5.252% 22Sep2030 Corp (USD), MUTHIN 7.125% 14Feb2028 Corp (USD), RAKUTN 11.250% 15Feb2027 Corp (USD), BACR 8.300% Perpetual Corp (SGD), 14Mar2033 Corp (SGD), BNP 4.750% 15Feb2034 Corp (SGD), and the analyst who produced this report holds a NIL position in securities mentioned in this article.


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