1Q26 was brutal. Here's how MAPS came out ahead

• In 1Q26, our MAPS Growth portfolios delivered returns ranging from -0.7 to -0.8%, while our Income portfolios saw returns of between -1.4% to -1.9%.

• Underweighting and staying selective on US equities was our most impactful call as the S&P 500 fell 4.3%, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained 6.5% in 1Q26 – making it the standout performer in our portfolios. 

• In April, we further underweighted US equities, upgraded Asia ex-Japan to overweight, shortened portfolio duration, and added the Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF to broaden our semiconductor exposure across the global supply chain.

• Our advice is simple: stay invested and keep your RSP running. Recoveries from geopolitical shocks are typically faster than most expect, and the fundamentals that drive long-term returns remain firmly in your favour.

1Q26 MAPS portfolio performance wrap

The first quarter of 2026 was shaped by two overlapping shocks. US–Israeli military strikes on Iran began in late February, triggering the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sending Brent crude from roughly USD 70 to above USD 110. Simultaneously, growing fears that AI could displace established software business models sparked a sharp selloff, as software stocks (measured by the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) fell nearly 25% by the end of March. The MSCI ACWI finished the quarter down 3.0%.

Against that backdrop, our MAPS portfolios held up well. All five Growth portfolios outperformed their benchmarks, with returns ranging from −0.7% to −0.8%. Income portfolios saw slightly larger losses, ranging between -1.4% to -1.9%. The more conservative portfolios were cushioned by their larger fixed income allocations, while the more aggressive profiles benefited from our semiconductor positioning.

The year-to-date picture is more encouraging. As markets recovered and our Asia and semiconductor exposures rallied, returns turned decisively positive — ranging from about 1% for the conservative portfolio to as much as 8.2% for the aggressive portfolio as of 24 April 2026 (Figure 1). 

These results highlight the benefit of staying invested through volatility rather than reacting to short-term noise. They also reinforce a familiar pattern: while geopolitical crises can unsettle markets in the near term, their impact on share prices is rarely lasting. 

Related Article: MAPS Portfolio Note: Don’t panic – the best returns are made when markets feel the worst

Figure 1: 1Q26 & year-to-date performance of our MAPS Growth portfolios 

Where our decisions delivered results

Underweighting the US was our single most impactful call. The S&P 500 fell 4.3% in 1Q26 as elevated valuations met rising oil prices and a sharp repricing of rate expectations. Running 5 percentage points below our neutral US weight meant we avoided the full force of that drawdown.

Semiconductors were the standout within our digital economy sleeve. Despite a challenging period, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained 6.5% for the quarter. The momentum carried into April, with the ETF delivering nearly 40% on the back of stellar results from heavyweight constituents such as TSMC and ASML. 

Beyond semiconductors, our allocations to Japan and emerging markets via Eastspring Investments Japan Dynamic and Dimensional Emerging Markets Large Cap Core Equity also delivered solid returns of 4.1% and 4.2%, respectively. Japan’s energy resilience, underpinned by its strategic oil reserve buffers and a diversified energy mix helped to mitigate downside risks from sustained oil price spikes. In emerging markets, strength in Taiwan and South Korean equities helped lift overall performance as both markets benefited from their central role in the global AI supply chain. 

On fixed income, our overweight in short-duration bonds proved its value once more. As the oil shock pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield above 4.3%, longer bonds came under pressure. The Amova Shenton Short Term Bond SGD fund returned −0.2% and the United SGD Fund was essentially flat, providing stability for our portfolios while global bonds declined 1.1%.

How we repositioned your portfolio for what comes next

In early April we made four targeted adjustments. For the full investment rationale behind each move, see our April 2026 Rebalancing Article. In summary:

• US equities reduced to 32.5% (further underweight); Asia ex-Japan upgraded to 12.5% (overweight) on stronger earnings momentum and more attractive valuations.

• Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF replaces the Invesco NASDAQ Internet ETF, broadening our semiconductor exposure to cover Asia’s critical role in fabrication, memory, and equipment.

• Singapore-centric short-duration bonds increased to 35.0%; global bonds trimmed to 25.0%. Portfolio duration shortens from 3.8 to 3.6 years as near-term inflation risks persist.

• Japan fund switched from Eastspring Japan Dynamic to Amova Japan Equity, which carries a stronger small-to-mid cap tilt to capture the broadening domestic recovery.

Table 1: Equity intra-asset allocation

Table 2: Fixed income intra-asset allocation

The fundamentals that matter have not changed

The recent geopolitical noise has been loud, but our investment conviction remains anchored in earnings rather than headlines, and earnings continue to tell a very different story. Case in point: the latest 1Q26 results from TSMC and SK Hynix, two of the largest constituents of the Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF we added to the portfolio in April.

Both companies delivered exceptional 1Q26 results. TSMC reported revenue of USD 35.9 billion, up 40.6% year-on-year. The company also raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to above 30%, citing surging demand for leading-edge process technologies.

SK Hynix went one better, posting a staggering 198% year-on-year revenue increase to set a new all-time quarterly record. DRAM prices surged more than 60% quarter-on-quarter as AI-driven server memory demand continued to outpace supply, and management sees no near-term relief in sight. Capacity is sold out through 2026, with tightness expected to persist into 2028 at minimum.

These are not the numbers of an industry feeling demand headwinds. They are the numbers of an industry at the centre of one of the most powerful structural demand cycles in modern technology history. Our conviction in the digital economy remains unchanged, and these results are exactly why.

Related Article: MAPS Portfolio Note: TSMC and SK Hynix just made the case for Asia semiconductors

Beyond semiconductors, the outlook for Asian equities remains bright. Japan's structural transformation continues to deepen — corporate governance reform remains in its early innings, monetary policy normalisation is firmly underway, and durable wage growth is reinforcing the shift from deflation to reflation. These are not short-term tailwinds. They are the makings of a multi-year re-rating, and we remain positioned accordingly.

In Asia ex-Japan, earnings momentum is strong and valuations remain undemanding. The AI-led capex cycle is flowing directly through Taiwan and South Korea, while improving domestic demand across ASEAN adds another engine of growth. Corporate governance reforms in South Korea are beginning to unlock shareholder value in ways that are only just starting to show up in prices. We upgraded Asia ex-Japan to overweight in April, and the conviction behind that call has only strengthened since.

On fixed income, we are positioned defensively. We have shortened duration and tilted the portfolio toward high-quality investment grade bonds, where we see the best risk-adjusted returns in the current environment. With rate cuts likely to be slower or further delayed than markets had anticipated, and credit spreads in high yield remaining uncomfortably tight relative to the risks on offer, we see little reward for reaching down the quality spectrum. 

Our advice to investors is unchanged: stay invested, keep your RSP running, and be patient. The recoveries from geopolitical shocks are typically faster than people expect. The fundamentals that drive long-term returns – corporate earnings – remain firmly in your favour.

If you’re new to investing or simply don’t have the time or expertise to monitor the markets, MAPS could be the right solution for you. Start now with a lump sum from as little as SGD 500, or a Regular Savings Plan from just SGD 100 a month. If you'd like to know more, feel free to email us at askmaps@fundsupermart.com. 

Declaration:

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) holds a NIL position in the abovementioned securities. The analyst who produced this report holds a position in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report – including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions – has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.