MAPS Portfolio Note: Apple just said it better than we could — the memory shortage is far from over

• Tim Cook recently confirmed that Apple will raise product prices as soaring memory chip costs become increasingly difficult to absorb. Memory supply remains severely constrained, with producers redirecting their most advanced capacity towards AI data centre chips. 

• Samsung’s 1Q26 operating profit came in at KRW 57.2 trillion — up 756% year-on-year, and higher than its entire operating profit for the full year of 2025. Management flagged that its demand fulfilment rate is now at a record low, with customers pulling forward 2027 orders out of concern that supply will remain constrained.

• SK Hynix’s chairman told Nikkei Asia this month that the shortage is expected to persist until at least 2030, and that the company plans to double wafer capacity within five years and triple it by 2034. 

• TSMC guided 2Q26 revenue to between USD 39.0 and USD 40.2 billion, a roughly 10% sequential step-up from its already record first quarter. Operating margins are guided at 56.5–58.5%, near the highest in the company’s history. There is no sign of demand softening at advanced nodes.

• Despite these results, the Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF continues to trade at a meaningful discount to its US-listed peers even as its largest constituents post record results. We believe there is still further upside ahead. 

The latest from Apple makes it clear — the chip shortage is far from over

Apple CEO Tim Cook was unambiguous in his message to the Wall Street Journal. While Apple has worked diligently to mitigate the rising costs passed through by memory suppliers and shield its customers from higher prices, the situation has become increasingly difficult to sustain. As a result, price increases across its product lineup are now unavoidable.

The reason comes down to a fundamental shift in who memory is being made for. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — three companies that together control roughly 95% of global DRAM production — have steadily redirected their most advanced capacity towards AI data centres, where demand is insatiable and margins are far higher. That leaves less supply for everything else such as smartphones, laptops and other consumer electronics. There is simply less memory available while consumers want more devices, and device makers have little choice but to pass those higher costs on to consumers.

The shortage is not expected to ease before 2030 at the earliest. SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC, MediaTek and Tokyo Electron (constituents of the Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF) are not peripheral beneficiaries of this cycle; they are the infrastructure enabling it. Apple's decision to raise prices is the clearest indication yet that the pricing power of that infrastructure continues to strengthen.

Samsung and SK Hynix: triple-digit profit growth with further upside ahead

Samsung’s 1Q26 results make the case in numbers. Revenue of KRW 133.9 trillion was a new all-time quarterly record, up 69% year-on-year. More striking still, operating profit of KRW 57.2 trillion exceeded Samsung’s entire full-year 2025 profit in a single quarter. Management flagged that demand fulfilment is at a record low, with customers already locking in supply for 2027 out of concern the shortage will worsen before it improves.

The more important SK Hynix update is not last quarter’s earnings — we covered those in April. SK Group Chairman told Nikkei Asia this month that the shortage will persist until at least 2030, and that SK Hynix plans to double wafer capacity within five years and triple it by 2034. The world’s leading HBM supplier is committing to a near-decade of expansion and still does not expect the market to reach surplus within that window. 

TSMC guided 2Q26 revenue to between USD 39.0 billion and USD 40.2 billion, representing roughly 10% sequential growth from its record 1Q26 performance. The company also expects operating margins of 56.5% to 58.5%, near the highest levels in its history. Advanced nodes continue to operate at full utilisation, with no signs of demand softening at the leading edge.

The thesis is playing out — and we are staying invested

We added the Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF to your MAPS portfolios in April at around HKD 120. It has since risen more than 70% to HKD 207.5 (as of 18 June 2026), and the reasons are plain to see. Samsung has posted its highest-ever quarterly profit, SK Hynix has laid out an eight-year capacity expansion roadmap, TSMC has guided 2Q26 revenue above its already record 1Q26, and Apple’s CEO has confirmed that the shortage driving all of this is far from over. The fundamental case has not weakened. It has strengthened.

Figure 1: The Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF has risen more than 70% since its inclusion in our MAPS portfolios

We acknowledge the bear case: some investors expect HBM prices to moderate in 2H26 as Samsung and Micron bring additional supply online. However, Samsung's management has reported record-low demand fulfilment rates, with customers already placing orders for 2027 capacity. That is not the behaviour of a market approaching a downturn. Meanwhile, SK Hynix expects supply tightness to persist until at least 2030. The direction of travel remains clear: demand continues to outpace supply.

Your MAPS portfolio’s Asia ex-Japan and digital economy exposures remain at overweight to capture the structural earnings momentum building across Asia's memory and foundry leaders. These were deliberate, high-conviction calls and the data continues to validate them.

What should investors do?

Our advice is simple: stay invested and stay patient. The structural case underpinning this position has only grown stronger in recent months, and the earnings outlook for Asia's semiconductor companies has rarely been clearer.

If you are already invested in MAPS, your positioning remains well placed. The structural tailwinds supporting Asia's memory and foundry leaders are not short-term catalysts. They are multi-year growth themes that continue to gather momentum. 

Stay disciplined with your Regular Savings Plan. Dollar-cost averaging is often most effective when uncertainty is highest, while also removing the need to make difficult market-timing decisions.

If you have not yet started, there is no better time. You can begin with a lump-sum investment from as little as SGD 500 or a Regular Savings Plan from SGD 100 per month. The shortage is not over. Neither is the opportunity. Now is the time to seize it.

Declaration:

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) holds a NIL position in the abovementioned securities. The analyst who produced this report holds a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report – including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions – has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.