Hormuz opened. Then reclosed. Four moves to make with your portfolio either way.

Update (18 April 2026, 11.30 PM SGT): This article was originally published at 9:00 AM SGT on 18 April 2026 and has been updated to reflect developments since publication.

The moment we positioned for is within reach

At 9:00 PM Singapore time on 17 April 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted a formal declaration on social media: the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial traffic for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Trump confirmed it — the strait is "completely open and ready for business," the naval blockade on Iranian ports stays until a deal is done, and "most points have been negotiated." Iran's presidential spokesperson described the opening differently: "conditional and limited," and valid only for the ceasefire period.

Oil fell more than 10% as US equities surged to record intraday highs — and the Lebanon ceasefire is holding. By Saturday, Iran had effectively reclosed the strait, citing the continuing US naval blockade as a ceasefire breach — before Pakistan confirmed it is preparing to deploy 20,000 security personnel in Islamabad for a second round of talks, and Egypt confirmed that mediators are pushing hard for a final agreement in the coming days.

Twenty-four hours. The strait opened, reclosed, and diplomacy is still moving. Since 28 February we have argued that Asia's structural winners — Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and China — would outperform regardless of the outcome of the war. The last 24 hours have confirmed that thesis. This article tells you precisely what to do with your portfolio — and why the four moves hold whether the strait is open or closed.

It is time to exit the energy hedge

The hedge did its job. XLE and BRNT protected your portfolio through the largest energy shock in history — and that job is done whether the strait is open or closed today.

Two reasons to exit now.

First, the spike risk has structurally lowered. Even with the strait under Iranian military control, oil prices spiking back to their wartime peak requires a full breakdown of the diplomacy process, which remains active. Holding an energy hedge against a risk that has materially reduced is not caution. It is inertia.

Second, the opportunity cost is rising. Every day your portfolio holds XLE and BRNT while Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and China rally is a day of returns left on the table. The structural winners are moving now — and the energy hedge is moving against you. TSMC posted a 58% profit increase in Q1 2026 during the worst energy crisis in history, Taiwan reported record merchandise exports, Singapore's semiconductor exports surged 113.8% in the month the war broke out, and China's Q1 GDP grew 5%, beating forecasts. Asia's structural winners do not need an open strait.

The strait closed in 24 hours — and it can reopen just as fast. What is definite is that diplomacy has not stopped: Pakistan is preparing to deploy 20,000 security personnel in Islamabad for a second round of talks, and Egypt confirmed on Saturday that mediators are pushing hard for a final agreement in the coming days. This is two steps forward, one step back — the normal trajectory of negotiations between adversaries with deep mistrust, and both sides came within inches of a memorandum of understanding in Islamabad, the highest-level talks since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The diplomacy process has not ended. The expected value of holding the hedge longer is negative.

Exit XLE and BRNT at the earliest available opportunity and redeploy into Asia's structural winners.

How to redeploy: the structural winners are the destination

Deploy systematically through a regular savings plan — investing a fixed amount at regular intervals to remove the temptation to time the market — rather than by chasing the rally. Hormuz-related euphoria and anxiety produce the sharpest short-term moves — and the fastest reversals. The structural re-rating of Asian markets is a multi-year story — you do not need to own all of it in the next 24 hours.

Japan. The Nikkei hit an all-time record close of 59,518 on 16 April — not a ceasefire bounce. Japan's case rests on structural forces already in motion: Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) governance reforms only 15-20% complete, wage growth above 5% for a third consecutive year — the most durable pay increases Japan has seen since the 1990s — and a 254-day strategic oil reserve that every other Asian government is now scrambling to replicate. If the war ends, the focus shifts to these structural trends — strong enough to sustain the rally. If uncertainty lingers, the reserve insulates. In both scenarios Japan wins. This is a market to own now, not later.

Korea and Taiwan. Asian semiconductors are the one sector where the AI boom and the energy security buildout converge. TSMC posted a 58% profit increase in Q1 2026 — its fourth consecutive quarterly record — with full-year revenue guidance above 30%. Samsung and SK Hynix control approximately 80% of global high bandwidth memory (HBM) — with their entire 2026 capacity already booked and shortages forecast through 2030. The AI demand engine was running before the war and did not stop during it. Clean energy infrastructure, every unit being built in response to this crisis, requires the same chips. That is the second demand engine. Investors may use the Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF (HKEX: 3119) to access the semiconductor opportunity in both markets in a single instrument.

Singapore. Singapore is the safe haven that was already being upgraded before the war. March non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew 15.3% with semiconductor exports surging 113.8% — in the month the war broke out. The Equity Market Development Programme has expanded to SGD 6.5 billion with SGD 3.95 billion already deployed, deepening the market. The war has added one more structural tailwind to a revival already underway — Gulf capital relocation. Singapore’s rule of law and institutional credibility are more valuable today than before the war began. MAS tightened for the first time since 2021-22, reversing both 2025 reductions in a single move, making SGD more attractive to the Gulf capital beginning to look for a new home.

Malaysia. Malaysia captures the capital flow that Singapore cannot. Not all Gulf capital flows to the same place — families requiring Shariah-compliant structures flow toward Malaysia, not Singapore. Malaysia offers deep Islamic capital markets, Shariah-compliant wealth structuring, and centuries of Arab-Southeast Asian trade relationships that no Western financial centre can replicate. Domestic fundamentals reinforce the case: FY26 earnings growth of 9.5%, inexpensive valuations, and low foreign ownership in a region where Indonesia faces MSCI rerating risks — meaning capital could flow out as index funds reduce their exposure — and Thailand faces political instability. Malaysia benefits from both.

China. China is simultaneously the most insulated major Asian economy and the dominant supplier of everything the world now needs. Strategic petroleum reserves cover over 100 days of net imports, domestic coal and renewables generate most of its electricity, and nearly half of crude imports arrive from outside the Middle East. China is exposed to this crisis. It is not at its mercy. It manufactures 70-90% of global solar panels, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles — the technologies every government is now rushing to install — and its electricity grid is secure, scalable, and structurally cheap, giving it a decisive cost advantage for AI infrastructure.

These markets are anchored to structural trends that take years to play out — not to the outcome of a single war. They are positioned to deliver returns regardless of the war outcome.

Table 1: Recommended products

Hormuz open or closed, the rate environment is unchanged

Oil remains significantly above pre-war levels, and the IMF has confirmed the damage is already done. Even if the war stops today, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth — with the impact rippling through oil and gas shipments and into related supply chains such as helium and fertilisers.

Full market normalisation requires three sequential steps — Gulf production recovery (two to four weeks), ships returning to the region (weeks to months), and refineries restarting once crude arrives (several more weeks). Ship operators will not send crews back through Hormuz until safety is demonstrated, not declared — and Trump's claim that mines are being cleared with US help remains unverified, with the IMO still verifying conditions. Elevated prices are likely to persist regardless of the diplomatic outcome.

None of that accounts for the structural damage no ceasefire can fix. Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex — which produces nearly 20% of the world's LNG — has sustained damage to roughly 17% of its own capacity, equivalent to about 3% of global supply, taking three to five years to repair under any scenario. LNG is not oil — you cannot reroute it through alternative pipelines. Even if the strait is reopened right now, the damage is not reversed.

The inflation embedded by this war does not reverse with a ceasefire. Rate cuts are not coming — every episode since 1970 where US CPI energy inflation rose above 25% year-on-year was followed by meaningful upward pressure on rates, and the three episodes that crossed that threshold were 1974, 1980, and 2022. If energy inflation stays elevated, the direction of travel is up, not down.

Reduce exposure to real estate, REITs, and long-duration growth stocks. This guidance is unchanged.

Here is the updated four-step game plan

One — do not sell into the rally. The diplomatic process is the most advanced between the US and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution — and when a deal comes, the rally resumes. You want to be positioned for that.

Two — reduce exposure to rate-sensitive sectors. Hormuz open or closed, the pre-war rate environment has not been restored. The IMF has confirmed that inflation stays elevated even if the war stops today — and rate hikes are now the more likely next move. Reduce exposure to real estate, REITs, and long-duration growth stocks. This guidance is unchanged.

Three — exit the energy hedge. That job is done whether the strait is open or closed today. Holding XLE and BRNT further costs you the structural rally already underway. Exit at the earliest available opportunity and redeploy into the structural winners.

Four — deploy into the structural winners systematically. If the structural winners — Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and China — pull back on headlines, buy through a regular savings plan rather than chasing the rally. The thesis is stronger today than it was before the war.

The thesis was right. It is still right

Over the course of the war, we argued that Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and China would outperform regardless of the outcome. Our specific arguments: that Japan and China were the most insulated major economies in Asia, that AI semiconductor demand was structurally insulated from the energy shock, and that Singapore was a safe haven with improving fundamentals.

Since then: the Nikkei hit an all-time record, Singapore’s NODX grew 15.3% in the month the war broke out with semiconductor exports surging 113.8%, and TSMC posted its fourth consecutive quarterly earnings record during the worst energy crisis in history. Taiwan reported record merchandise exports. China’s Q1 GDP grew 5% — beating forecasts of 4.8% in the middle of a global energy crisis.

The strait opened and reclosed within 24 hours. Our four-step game plan did not change once. But the world has changed permanently. Every government that declared an energy emergency is now committed to building alternative supply chains — and every dollar of that infrastructure requires semiconductors from Korea and Taiwan and clean energy equipment from China. The Gulf’s damaged reputation will not be rebuilt in two weeks, and a signed deal does not make Iran a trusted neighbour overnight. Gulf families reconsidering where to anchor their wealth are not changing their minds because of a deal. Singapore and Malaysia are the destination for that capital. The AI buildout that drove semiconductor demand through the worst energy crisis in history will not stop because a deal was signed.

The structural case for Asia does not expire with the war.

Declaration:

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report – including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions – has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) holds a NIL position in the abovementioned securities. The analyst who produced this report holds positions in iShares Hang Seng Tech ETF and Global X Asia Semiconductor ETF.