Singapore's May NODX surges to 22-year high: AI integration runs deep, positive view maintained

• May NODX surged 38.4% year on year, the fastest expansion since December 2003, beating consensus expectations and extending the growth streak to nine consecutive months.

• Export growth is becoming increasingly broad-based, with electronic NODX nearly doubling and non-electronic NODX accelerating to 17.7%, providing additional support to overall export performance.

• Singapore's export basket highlights its deep integration within the AI semiconductor supply chain, spanning chip manufacturing, advanced packaging, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

• Ongoing capacity expansion by Micron, UMC, and Applied Materials provides a visible pipeline for future growth, reinforcing export momentum beyond the current cycle.

• While tariff risks warrant monitoring, Singapore appears relatively well positioned, and the structural drivers underpinning export growth remain firmly intact.

May NODX saw the fastest growth in 22 years

Singapore's May NODX rose 38.4% year on year, accelerating from 24.4% in April and marking the fastest expansion since December 2003. The result extended the growth streak to nine consecutive months and exceeded the consensus forecast of 31.1% by a wide margin.

Figure 1: Singapore's NODX has expanded continuously since September 2025

Electronic NODX nearly doubled, rising 94.8% year on year, supported by strong demand for integrated circuits (+80.9%), disk media products (+227.8%), and personal computers (+140.9%). The sector remained the dominant contributor to overall export growth, reflecting continued strength across AI-related technology demand. More importantly, the expansion is becoming increasingly broad-based. Non-electronic NODX grew 17.7%, accelerating from 10.9% in April and providing additional support to overall export performance.

The geographic composition of exports points to continued momentum across the regional semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan emerged as the strongest growth market, with exports surging 135.2% year on year from 33.5% in April, driven by integrated circuits and disk media products flowing into Taiwan's AI hardware manufacturing ecosystem. This reflects Singapore's deepening integration within the regional semiconductor supply chain.

Table 1: Broad-based NODX YoY growth across major markets, with Indonesia the sole exception

Market	NODX	Electronic NODX	Non-Electronic NODX
Taiwan	135.2%	218.6%	68.9%
US	80.9%	303.0%	37.0%
South Korea	67.2%	175.5%	14.4%
EU27	41.4%	67.7%	37.4%
China	31.0%	68.4%	25.4%
Indonesia	-26.9%	-38.7%	-24.7%
Source: Enterprise SG, iFAST Compilations Data as of 17 June 2026

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Singapore benefits from multiple layers of AI demand

The outlook for Singapore's exports remains positive, not simply because AI demand is growing, but because Singapore plays an important role across several parts of the semiconductor supply chain.

Integrated circuits remain the clearest example. Singapore's semiconductor ecosystem spans memory chips, chip manufacturing, and advanced packaging, providing exposure to some of the industry's fastest-growing segments. Demand for memory products is particularly supportive. Every AI data centre requires large amounts of NAND flash to store data and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to help AI chips process information more efficiently. As AI adoption accelerates, demand for these components continues to outpace supply, supporting a favourable outlook for Singapore's semiconductor exports.

Capacity expansion plans reinforce this trend. Micron's HBM advanced packaging facility in Singapore is expected to contribute meaningfully to supply from 2027, while its USD 24 billion NAND wafer fabrication facility is scheduled to begin production in the second half of 2028. At the same time, UMC's new 22nm fabrication facility entered volume production in 2026, further strengthening Singapore's manufacturing base. Together, these projects provide a visible pipeline of new capacity that should support export growth over the coming years.

Singapore's position in semiconductor manufacturing equipment is equally important. The country accounts for around 20% of global semiconductor equipment production, supplying the tools needed to build and expand chip factories around the world. Applied Materials' recently opened Tampines Campus more than doubles its advanced cleanroom capacity in Singapore and reflects continued investment across the industry. Because equipment orders are typically placed well before delivery, this segment benefits from stronger order visibility and provides an additional source of support for exports.

Taken together, these strengths create a self-reinforcing growth cycle. Rising investment in AI drives demand for more chips, which in turn requires additional manufacturing capacity and semiconductor equipment. As Singapore participates across multiple stages of this process, it stands to benefit not from a single source of demand, but from the expansion of the broader AI ecosystem itself.

Tariff risks remain manageable, structural drivers remain intact

Trade policy uncertainty remains a risk to monitor, but Singapore's immediate tariff exposure appears more limited than headlines suggest, while ongoing bilateral engagement provides an avenue to address potential risks. The structural drivers behind Singapore's NODX surge — AI-driven demand for memory, storage, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment — remain largely insulated from the current round of proposed measures. More importantly, the broader demand cycle underpinning Singapore's export strength remains firmly intact.

Related article: Contained and contested: Why Singapore's US tariff risk is smaller than it appears

Against this backdrop, Singapore's export outlook continues to be supported by its deep integration within the global semiconductor supply chain. Ongoing investment across chip manufacturing, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment reinforces this position and provides a visible pipeline for future growth. With cumulative NODX growth reaching 18.1% in the first five months of 2026, significantly above Enterprise Singapore's full-year forecast range of 3.0% to 5.0%, the balance of risks appears tilted towards an upward revision to official export growth forecasts at the August review.

We maintain our positive view on Singapore. For investors seeking exposure to Singapore’s equity market, we continue to recommend positioning through the Amova Singapore Dividend Equity SGD Fund, the Amova Singapore STI ETF (SGX: G3B), and the  iFAST-Amova Singapore Equity ASGD for broader exposure.

Declaration

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) and the analyst who produced this report hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report, including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions, has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.