Singapore property prices cooled in 2Q26 — here's why PropNex still looks attractive

• Sale transaction volume for Singapore's private residential market held broadly steady at 5,420 units in 2Q26 versus 5,413 in 1Q26, even as the overall price index moderated to +0.5% QoQ from +0.9%. Because commission income scales with price and volume together, a softer price print alone need not translate into weaker commission generation.
• The segments that strengthened this quarter: Core Central Region (CCR) prices, +2.0% QoQ, and landed housing, +2.6% QoQ, are also the segments least exposed to foreign capital, whose share of new home purchases has fallen to 4.7% year-to-date from a 2015–2022 average of 17%. We read this as durable domestic demand — spanning newly naturalised buyers, overseas Singaporeans preserving capital locally, and existing owners upgrading into the CCR — rather than footloose foreign inflow.
• Three structural drivers underpin our thesis independently of any single quarter's price print: an HDB Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) pipeline rebounding from 8,000 flats in 2025 to roughly 48,000 across 2026–2028 (each a potential two-commission event for PropNex), a 2026 launch calendar deliberately weighted toward the Outside Central Region (OCR) to capture that MOP-driven upgrader wave, and record land bids in 1H26 that point to higher 2027 launch prices and higher commission per unit.
• Applying a fair P/E multiple of 22x to our FY2028E EPS forecast yields a target price of SGD 2.70, approximately 49% above the SGD 1.81 close on 15 July 2026, alongside an average annual dividend yield of approximately 5.1% over 2026E–2028E.

For PropNex, private residential sales volume held even as the price mix shifted

PropNex (SGX: OYY) earns its commissions on both sides of the transaction, so its earnings are a function of transaction volume and average transaction price together, not price growth alone. That is the lens through which we think URA's 2Q26 private residential price flash estimate should be read: a moderation in the pace of price appreciation need not translate into weaker commission generation, provided volumes hold up.

Released on 1 July 2026, the flash estimate showed exactly that split. Singapore's overall private residential price index rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), moderating from 0.9% in 1Q26 — but sale transaction volume came in broadly unchanged at 5,420 units versus 5,413 units in 1Q26, essentially flat and notably not a decline. For PropNex, that combination matters more than the headline price number on its own.

Beneath that headline, the segment breakdown shows where the price moderation actually came from: the prime and landed markets strengthened even as Rest of Central Region (RCR, near the city centre) and Outside Central Region (OCR, the suburban belt) softened. Non-landed private residential prices slipped 0.1% QoQ, reversing a 1.3% QoQ gain in 1Q26; within that, Core Central Region (CCR) prices — Singapore's prime, city-centre segment — rose 2.0% QoQ, while RCR and OCR fell 1.4% QoQ and 0.2% QoQ respectively. Landed property prices, meanwhile, rose a sharp 2.6% QoQ, a reversal from a 0.4% QoQ decline in 1Q26.

Figure 1: OCR and RCR remained largely flat as Landed and CCR rose

Table 1: Singapore private residential price and volume, 1Q26 vs 2Q26 flash estimates

Metric	1Q26	2Q26
Overall private residential price index (QoQ)	+0.9%	+0.5%
Non-landed private residential price index (QoQ)	+1.3%	-0.1%
– Core Central Region (CCR)	+0.6%	+2.0%
– Rest of Central Region (RCR)	+0.8%	-1.4%
– Outside Central Region (OCR)	+2.2%	-0.2%
Landed price index (QoQ)	-0.4%	+2.6%
Private residential sale transaction volume (units)	5,413	5,420
Source: URA (flash estimates). Full 2Q26 statistics are due for release on 24 July 2026. The full set of 2Q26 real estate statistics is due to be released by URA on 24 July 2026, and flash estimates have historically been revised, at times materially, once final transaction data is captured.

Taken together, the quarter's softness sat almost entirely in the RCR and OCR segments — not in transaction activity, and not in the prime and landed markets that carry PropNex's highest-value commissions. That's why we read this print as a shift in mix, not a weakening in demand.

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Singapore's private residential market is emerging as a safe-haven beneficiary

Beyond the quarterly print, we believe a more structural narrative is likely to develop: Singapore's residential market, and in particular the CCR and landed segments, is emerging as a beneficiary of safe-haven demand amidst a highly uncertain global macro and geopolitical backdrop.

We think domestic and naturalisation-linked buyers, not direct foreign capital, are driving most of this demand — a distinction that matters because it points to a more durable source of demand than discretionary foreign capital, which can enter and exit more readily in response to shifting global risk sentiment.

The 2Q26 data offers a preliminary data point for this thesis. While the broader non-landed market softened, the CCR posted the strongest price gain across all segments at +2.0% QoQ. Landed housing (a scarce, tightly supply-constrained segment whose ownership is generally restricted to Singapore citizens*) posted an even sharper 2.6% gain, again pointing to resilient domestic high-net-worth demand rather than foreign inflows.

This is also evident in CCR luxury transactions priced at SGD 5 million and above, which rose 24.7% YoY to 353 units in 1H26, even as the broader private residential market (excluding executive condominiums, or ECs) contracted 12% YoY to 10,909 units over the same period. On a full-year basis, new CCR condo sales overall jumped roughly fivefold to 1,916 units in 2025, from 378 units in 2024.

*Foreigners are prohibited from owning mainland landed property without prior approval from the government's Land Dealings Approval Unit (LDAU), for which one must be a Singapore Permanent Resident (PR) of at least five years and demonstrate an exceptional economic contribution to Singapore. Mainland landed property — bungalows, semi-detached homes, and terrace houses — is heavily restricted under the Residential Property Act; Sentosa Cove is the only major residential enclave where this rule is lifted. They are also subject to an Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) of 60%.

Figure 2: New sales by residential status

Source: URA, Business Times, EdgeProp, OCBC.

This CCR-versus-broader-market divergence is worth unpacking by segment. Rather than being driven primarily by foreign capital, the CCR's strength appears to reflect three overlapping domestic channels: (1) newly naturalised citizens and PRs converting from renting to home ownership, with Singapore's safe-haven status a key factor in that decision; (2) overseas Singapore citizens and PRs acquiring local property to preserve capital amidst global uncertainty; and (3) existing Singaporean owners upgrading into the CCR as its price premium over the RCR narrows (from 21.5% in 2024 to just 10.1% in 2025), making the prime segment a comparatively more accessible upgrade option than in prior years.

Figure 3: The spread between CCR and RCR has narrowed in recent years

This has occurred even as foreign participation in new home purchases has continued to decline — from an average of 17% between 2015 and 2022, to 10.7% in 2024, and to just 4.7% year-to-date in 2026, following the April 2023 hike in Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreigners to 60%. Landed housing, by contrast, is largely closed to foreign buyers altogether, so its strength points to a related but distinct dynamic: sustained demand from domestic high-net-worth buyers for a scarce, tightly held asset class.

For PropNex, we think this buyer composition matters as much as the price gain itself, and it carries a direct commission implication: a tilt toward higher-value CCR and landed transactions is commission-accretive, since absolute commission quantum scales with transaction price. The Orchard Boulevard and Holland Plain sites on the 2H26 Government Land Sales (GLS) Confirmed List, both located within the CCR, would position PropNex to participate more directly in this segment should the trend persist.

Why the structural growth story remains intact

The MOP pipeline is a dual-commission story, not just a volume story

Every HDB flat that reaches its Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) — the five-year window after which an owner may sell on the open market — is a potential two-commission event for PropNex: one commission when the owner sells the HDB flat, and, for a meaningful proportion of those owners, a second when they subsequently purchase an EC or private condominium. That dual-commission structure is why the shape of the MOP pipeline matters more to our thesis than any single quarter's transaction count.

After a cyclical trough of just 8,000 MOP-eligible flats in 2025, the pipeline is expected to rebound to an estimated 13,500 in 2026, 15,000 in 2027, and 19,500 in 2028. Over the full three-year period, approximately 48,000 flats are expected to reach MOP — 28.1% more than in the prior three years of 2023 to 2025 (37,474 units).

In 2026, Punggol (3,222 units) and Tampines (2,133 units) are expected to see the largest increases in MOP-eligible flats, which could translate into meaningful upgrader demand supporting new launches for both ECs and private condominiums. While new EC rules may redirect part of this upgrader demand toward resale condos or private launches rather than new ECs, the overall commission pool should remain supported.

Figure 4: A rebound of MOP-eligible HDB flats is expected in 2026

Table 2: HDB MOP Pipeline (2025A–2028E)

Metric	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
HDB flats reaching MOP	8,000	13,500	15,000	19,500
YoY Growth	-38.9%	+68.8%	+11.1%	+30.0%
Cumulative 2026–2028 vs 2023–2025	48,000 units entering the HDB resale market, which is 28.1% more than the prior 3-year period (2023–2025)
Source: HDB, PropNex Research, data.gov.sg. Data as of 30 June 2026.

Table 3: Approximately 13,500 HDB flats are expected to reach minimum occupation period in 2026, rebounding from a low of 8,000 units in 2025

Town	2-room flat	3-room flat	4-room flat	5-room flat	Total
Bedok	409	0	757	274	1,440
Bukit Batok	187	34	0	0	221
Bukit Panjang	51	17	203	79	350
Geylang	136	183	0	0	319
Hougang	0	0	155	130	285
Kallang/Whampoa	0	85	158	0	243
Punggol	890	313	1,334	685	3,222
Queenstown	408	1,094	659	244	2,405
Sembawang	0	83	131	96	310
Sengkang	0	0	198	132	330
Tampines	0	244	1,162	727	2,133
Toa Payoh	218	340	800	236	1,594
Woodlands	0	72	100	0	172
Yishun	0	96	252	108	456
Note: Estimations may vary slightly due to different sources of data Source: 99.co.

Developers are positioning the 2026 launch calendar to capture this MOP wave

Developers appear to be positioning their own pipelines deliberately to capture MOP-driven upgrader demand, and early sales results support that view. Approximately 58.1% of 2026 new launch units are in the OCR, up from 42.0% in 2025 — a shift timed to coincide with the MOP rebound outlined above. The strong take-up at Rivelle Tampines, Pinery Residences, and Tengah Garden Residences — 92%, 93%, and 99% at launch respectively — all in the OCR, validates this positioning.

Table 4: Most projects launched in 1H26 still see healthy demand at launch

Launch Date	Project	Units	Sales Rate at Launch	Average Price (SGD psf)
Jan	Narra Residences	544	25%	$2,180
Jan	Newport Residences	246	57%	$3,370
Mar	River Modern	455	90%	$3,266
Mar	Rivelle Tampines EC	572	92%	$1,863
Mar	Pinery Residences	588	93%	$2,546
Apr	Vela Bay	515	72%	$2,886
Apr	Tengah Garden Residences	863	99%	$2,120
May	Hudson Place Residences	327	61%	$2,458
Source: URA, Business Times, EdgeProp. Data as of 30 June 2026. Note: No new launches in June 2026, which may be due to the June school holidays.

Figure 5: Unsold units / TTM sales remain low, suggesting healthy demand

Total available inventory, including unsold units carried over from 2025, remains broadly stable at approximately 16,597 units (2025: 16,931 units) — providing PropNex with a resilient addressable market even in a year of lower new launch volumes.

Record 1H26 land bids show developers underwriting the CCR resilience thesis with their own capital

Developers are now backing the CCR resilience thesis with capital, not just sentiment — and the shift is recent. In 1Q26, none of the five GLS sites awarded sat within the CCR. That reversed sharply in 2Q26: of five further sites awarded, four sat in the CCR, and developers bid for them aggressively. Peck Hay Road's SGD 1,865 psf ppr (per square foot per plot ratio) land rate marks the second-highest CCR residential land rate on record, behind only the SGD 2,377 psf ppr Cuscaden Road site in 2018, while River Valley Green (Parcel C) set a fresh benchmark for its precinct at SGD 1,730 psf ppr — 21.8% above the adjacent parcel awarded barely a year earlier.

For PropNex, this land-bid data functions as a leading indicator rather than a standalone data point: land prices achieved in 1H26 typically foreshadow the launch prices these projects will carry when they reach the market in 2027, and because commissions scale with transaction value, higher launch prices translate directly into higher absolute commission income per unit.

Across 1H26 as a whole, ten GLS sites (nine private residential plots and one EC site) were awarded, adding approximately 4,152 private residential homes (4,712 including the EC site) to the forward launch pipeline. Across the nine private residential tenders, developers submitted a combined 40 bids, averaging 4.4 bids per site — itself a signal of sustained developer appetite even as the broader price print cooled.

Table 5: GLS sites awarded in 1H26, plus Bayshore Drive (tender closed 15 July 2026) — land rates and estimated launch prices

GLS Site	District*	Type	Est. Units	Award Date	Land Rate (SGD per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr))	Est. Launch Price (SGD psf)	Commission Relevance for PropNex
Dairy Farm Walk	D23 (OCR)	Condo	480	Jan 2026	962 (5.7% below Narra site)	$2,020–$2,200	Gradual seller pool; broadly in line with existing Dairy Farm benchmarks
Tanjong Rhu Road	D15 (RCR)	Condo	525	Feb 2026	1,455	$2,700–$3,100	First new D15 GLS in about 30 years; scarcity premium supports high average selling price (ASP) and commission quantum
Lentor Central	D26 (OCR)	Condo	562	Mar 2026	1,278 (Lentor estate record)	$2,450–$2,700	PropNex appointed across Lentor precinct; rising PSF floor directly expands per-unit commission
Dover Drive	D5 (RCR)	Mixed-use	625	Mar 2026	1,556 (2nd-highest RCR ever)	$2,830–$3,200+	First GLS in Dover-Medway; 31% land cost step-up vs prior Bloomsbury site in same precinct
Woodlands Drive 17 (Sim Lian)	D25 (OCR)	EC	560	Jan 2026	794 (record EC)	$1,750–$2,000	2,700+ MOP-eligible flats in North by 2027; no EC in Woodlands since 2016
Kallang Close	D12 (RCR)	Condo	470	Apr 2026	1,415	$2,900–$3,100	With a capped 115 sqm retail component and a mandatory childcare centre
Dunearn Road (Plot 2)	D11 (CCR)	Condo	330	Apr 2026	1,625	$3,300–$3,600	Residential with Commercial at 1st storey
Holland Plain (Parcel B)	D10 (CCR)	Condo	280	May 2026	1,491	$3,000–$3,200	Second Sim Lian site in the precinct, 4.1% above its first Holland Link bid
Peck Hay Road	D9 (CCR)	Condo	380	Jun 2026	1,865	$3,400–$3,900	Second-highest CCR residential land rate on record (since Cuscaden Road, 2018)
River Valley Green (Parcel C)	D9 (CCR)	Condo	500	Jun 2026	1,730	$3,300–$3,500	New benchmark land rate for River Valley/Zion, +21.8% vs. adjacent Parcel B. River Modern launched in March this year saw 90% takeup during its launch weekend at an average selling price of SGD 3,266 psf
Bayshore Drive^	D16 (OCR)	Mixed-use	1,280	Jul 2026	1,323	$2,200–$2,500	Singapore’s first SGD 2 billion non-CBD GLS site. 1,280 residential units integrated with a bus interchange, Bedok South MRT station (Thomson-East Coast Line), and ~22,500 sqm (~242,190 sq ft) of commercial/retail space
Source: URA, Stacked Homes, Knight Frank, iFAST Estimates. Data as of 30 June 2026. Est. launch prices based on analyst projections; actual prices subject to developer discretion. *OCR refers to Outside Central Region (suburban area), RCR refers to Rest of Central Region (near city centre), while CCR refers to Core Central Region (city centre). ^not part of 1H26 GLS bids, its tender only closed 15 July 2026

Valuation

Taken together, three drivers support our BUY rating and SGD 2.70 target price on PropNex (SGX: OYY) : a resilient commission pool underpinned by stable 2Q26 transaction volumes even as price growth cooled; an approximately 48,000-unit HDB MOP wave building across 2026–2028 that we view as a dual-commission tailwind; and record 1H26 CCR land bids that point to higher 2027 launch prices and, in turn, higher commission per transaction.

The land-bid driver extends into the second half of the year: the 2H26 GLS programme adds nearly 4,745 new private homes to the launch calendar, giving PropNex more project marketing opportunities across the suburbs, the city fringe, and the prime Orchard belt, while total available inventory remains stable at around 16,000 units.

Applying a fair P/E multiple of 22x to our forecasted FY2028E EPS yields a target price of SGD 2.70 by the end of 2028, implying approximately 49% upside from the current price of SGD 1.81 as of 15 July 2026. We also estimate an average annual dividend yield of approximately 5.1% over 2026E–2028E.

Table 6: PropNex Earnings Summary and Target Price

PropNex	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
P/E Ratio (X)	19.8	17.6	14.7	14.8
Earnings Growth (%)	72.0%	8.4%	19.3%	(0.3%)
EPS (SGD)	0.0951	0.1031	0.1230	0.1226
DPS (SGD)	0.0950	0.0825	0.0984	0.0981
Dividend Yield (%)	5.1%	4.6%	5.4%	5.4%
Target Price (Fair P/E: 22X)	SGD 2.70
Current Price	SGD 1.81
Upside Potential	49.2%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. (historical); iFAST Estimates (forecasts). Data as of 15 July 2026.

Figure 6: PropNex share price vs EPS chart

Key risks to this thesis

A reversal or further tightening of cooling measures such as ABSD, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in HDB resale or new-launch transaction volumes, or a broader macro or interest-rate shock that dampens buyer sentiment could each weigh on the volume side of PropNex's commission equation even if the structural drivers above remain intact.

A risk specific to the land-bid thesis is that developers absorb higher 1H26 land costs into margin rather than passing them through to 2027 launch prices, which would weaken the higher-commission-per-unit mechanism even if transaction volumes hold up.

We would revisit our thesis if transaction volumes were to decline materially alongside softer prices, rather than holding up as they did in 2Q26, or if 2027 launch prices come in below what current land rates imply.

Disclaimer: For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) and the analyst who produced this report hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Investments are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report, including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions, has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.