PropNex: Why the best is yet to come

• The Singapore HDB resale market recorded a 10% month-on-month (MoM) pickup in transaction volume in May 2026, with the average resale price edging up 0.4% MoM to SGD 660,328, while three towns (Bedok, Central Area, and Clementi) posted new record prices, signalling continued underlying demand even as the broader market stabilises.
• Million-dollar HDB resale flat transactions rose 19.6% MoM to 165 units in May 2026, the highest monthly tally since September 2025, reflecting a structural upward shift in the HDB resale price floor that supports PropNex's per-unit commission earnings.
• The 2H26 Confirmed List Government Land Sales (GLS) programme offers 4,745 private residential units (including 735 Executive Condo (EC) units) across eight residential sites and one White site (nine sites in total), representing a 3.7% increase from 1H26.
• Moreover, the number of HDB flats completing its Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) is set to surge from a cyclical trough of 8,000 units in 2025 to approximately 48,000 units over 2026 to 2028, creating a multi-year dual-commission tailwind for PropNex. This is further reinforced by record 1Q26 GLS land bids, which serve as a leading indicator of higher future launch prices in 2027. Given that PropNex's commissions scale with transaction value, this suggests higher absolute commission income per unit.
• Taken together, these structural growth drivers continue to underpin our BUY rating for PropNex with a target price of SGD 2.70 alongside 5.2% dividend yield by the end of 2028.

Singapore's residential property market has entered a phase best characterised as cautious resilience.

Following a period of policy-driven moderation following the cooling measures introduced in 2022 and 2023, transaction activity is recovering on a measured basis across both the HDB resale and private new-launch segments. Macro headwinds, including a slower global growth outlook and residual interest rate pressure, have tempered sentiment, but structural drivers of domestic housing demand remain firmly intact. Population growth, household formation, and upgrader demand continue to anchor buyer confidence.

For PropNex (SGX: OYY), Singapore's largest listed property agency by agent count and market share, this operating environment is broadly supportive. As an intermediary earning commissions on both sides of the transaction, PropNex’s earnings are tied to transaction volumes and the average price per transaction, both of which are trending constructively. We maintain our BUY rating on PropNex with a target price of SGD 2.70 by end-2028 alongside an average annual dividend yield of 5.2%, representing 50.7% upside from the last close of SGD 1.79 as of 3 June 2026.

Related article: PropNex: New EC rules accelerate near-term demand and could drive further resale activity

Related article: PropNex: The Middle East war is not stopping Singaporeans from buying new launches

HDB resale market stabilises at elevated levels, with record prices in key towns reflecting durable demand

The HDB resale market in May 2026 offered a constructive read-through for PropNex's near-term earnings. The average HDB resale price inched up +0.4% month-on-month (MoM) in May to SGD 660,328, while resale volume climbed +10% MoM to 2,136 flats during the month. The combination of higher volume and higher prices is notable: it suggests that demand is not merely price-driven but reflects broad-based buyer participation.

Beneath the headline numbers, three HDB towns recorded new all-time price highs in May 2026.

• In Bedok, a 5-room flat at Bedok South Horizon fetched SGD 1.4 million.
• In Clementi, a 5-room unit at Clementi Crest in Clementi Avenue 3 transacted at SGD 1.58 million, surpassing that project's own record of SGD 1.51 million set as recently as January 2026.
• In the Central Area, a 5-room flat at Pinnacle @ Duxton set a new district high at SGD 1.63 million, transacting on a floor between the 43rd and 45th storey with over 83 years of remaining lease.

Two of these three record-setting transactions involved projects that had recently crossed their five-year MOP threshold. This illustrates in real time the upgrader activity that we previously associated with the MOP pipeline inflection, which we believe is expected to gather pace through 2026 to 2028.

The million-dollar resale flat segment also maintained its upward momentum. 165 resale flats transacted at or above SGD 1 million in May, a 19.6% MoM increase from 138 units in April, marking the highest monthly tally since September 2025. In cumulative terms, 715 million-dollar HDB flats have been resold in the first five months of 2026, putting the market on track to potentially surpass the full-year record of 1,593 (vs. pro-rated 1,716) such transactions set in 2025.

Figure 1: Number of HDB resale flats resold for at least SGD 1 million

For PropNex, the significance of this trend is straightforward. Commission income scales with transaction value, and million-dollar HDB resale flats generate meaningfully higher absolute commission per deal than flats trading at sub-SGD 600,000 levels. A structural shift in the HDB price distribution toward higher price tranches, even if gradual, therefore compounds positively on PropNex's earnings over time.

The 2H26 GLS Programme signals government confidence in market demand and extends PropNex's Project Marketing pipeline

On 3 June 2026, the government announced the 2H26 Government Land Sales (GLS) programme, providing further visibility into Singapore's private residential supply pipeline. The release is notable both for its scale and its composition, with meaningful implications for PropNex's project marketing revenue over the next 12 to 24 months.

The 2H26 Confirmed List will provide 4,745 private homes (including 735 Executive Condo (EC) units) across eight residential sites and one White site in the Jurong Lake District, a 3.7% increase from the 4,575 units offered in the 1H26 GLS programme. A White Site refers to a flexible land zoning designation that allows developers to build a dynamic mix of commercial, residential, hotel, sports, and recreational uses.

Taken together with the 1H26 slate, the full-year 2026 Confirmed List residential supply amounts to 9,320 units including 1,370 EC units, a well-stocked pipeline that underpins developer activity and the new launch transaction calendar through which PropNex earns its project marketing commissions.

Though we recognise that the full-year 2026 Confirmed List supply of 9,320 units appears smaller than 2025's 9,755 units, the total available inventory (upcoming new launches and new launch units carried over from last year) remains largely stable at around 16,000 units. Hence, we believe that the total number of units that could be translated into commissions remains largely the same, and investors should not focus solely on the headline number.

Figure 2: Residential units offered under the GLS programme (CL and RL, incl. EC)

The geographic composition of the 2H26 slate is worth noting.

Four of the nine Confirmed List sites are located in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), including plots in Marina Gardens Lane (390 units), De Souza Avenue (415 units), Tanjong Rhu Close (505 units), and Berlayar Close (695 units). The RCR has consistently posted the strongest new launch take-up rates in recent years, driven by its appeal to upgraders and investors seeking city-fringe connectivity at more accessible price points than the Core Central Region (CCR).

On the CCR side, a new Orchard Boulevard site capable of yielding 110 units and a 610-unit Holland Plain site were introduced to the Confirmed List, extending the prime market pipeline at a time when renewed buyer interest in CCR residential product has been evidenced by the strong sell-through at UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard, which has sold approximately 80% of its 301 units since launching in July 2025.

As for the suburbs, commonly known as Outside of Central Region (OCR), we expect demand for new launches and resale private property to remain strong on the back of the upgrader demand. This is driven by a surge in HDB flats attaining MOP, rebounding from a low of 8,000 units last year to 13,500 units this year.

The EC supply calibration embedded in the 2H26 slate also merits attention. The total number of EC units offered under full-year 2026 GLS Confirmed Lists amounts to 1,370 units from three plots, approximately 30% lower than the 1,970 EC units offered in the full year 2025. This measured EC supply likely reflects a transitional period as the government assesses how developers and buyers respond to the new EC measures introduced on 8 May 2026 before calibrating future EC land releases.

Table 1: EC Confirmed List supply

Half yearly EC GLS	No. of EC sites on Confirmed List	No. of estimated EC units on Confirmed List
1H23	1	700
2H23	1	560
1H24	1	710
2H24	1	560
1H25	3	980
2H25	2	990
1H26	2	635
2H26	1	735
Source: URA Data as of 3 June 2026.

For PropNex, this supply moderation supports stronger sell-through rates and higher launch prices for existing and upcoming 2H26 EC projects (exempt from the revised EC rules with effect on EC land bids secured after 8 May 2026). This could ultimately translate into higher commissions per unit sold.

Table 2: Five EC launches in 2026 and two in 2027 that are exempt from the revised EC rules with effect on EC land bids secured after 8 May 2026

No.	Project / Area	Number of units	Launch
1	Coastal Cabana	748	Launched in Jan 2026
2	Rivelle Tampines	572	Launched in Mar 2026
3	Senja Close	300	4Q26
4	Sembawang Road	265	4Q26
5	Woodlands Drive (CDL)	420	4Q26
Total number of units for EC launch pipeline in 2026: 2,305 units
6	Woodlands Drive (Sim Lian Group)	560	Tba, 2027 expected
7	Miltonia Close in Yishun (Hoi Hup Realty)	430	Tba, 2027 expected
Source: PropNex, EdgeProp. Data as of 3 June 2026.

As for the GLS, the sole EC site on the 2H26 Confirmed List at Jurong East Avenue 1 (735 units), though subjected to the new EC rules, would represent the first new EC project in Jurong East since 1996. This is an area with an abundance of HDB flats and no new EC supply in nearly three decades. In our vewi, it presents a set of favourable conditions that have historically preceded strong pent-up demand and rapid sell-through upon launch.

Taken together, the 2H26 GLS programme signals government confidence in the underlying health of private housing demand, while simultaneously providing PropNex with a forward pipeline of new launch opportunities across multiple market segments.

As Singapore's largest agency by agent headcount, PropNex is well-positioned to capitalise on this pipeline, a key earnings driver that, combined with the recovering HDB resale market, reinforces our earnings growth projections.

Why the Structural Growth Story Remains Intact

The MOP Surge Creates a Multi-Year, Dual-Commission Tailwind

After a cyclical trough of just 8,000 MOP-eligible flats in 2025, the pipeline surges to an estimated 13,500 in 2026, 15,000 in 2027, and 19,500 in 2028. Over the full three-year period, approximately 48,000 flats will reach MOP, 28.1% more than in the prior three years of 2023 to 2025 (37,474 units).

In 2026, areas that would see a relatively larger increase in MOP-eligible flats include Punggol (3,222) and Tampines (2,133). This could translate into meaningful upgrader demand, supporting new launches for both ECs and private condominiums.

This is not merely a volume story for PropNex's HDB resale segment; it is a dual-commission story. Every MOP completion unlocks a potential HDB resale transaction and, for a meaningful proportion of those owners, an EC or private condo purchase thereafter.

While the new EC rules may redirect part of this upgrader demand toward resale condos or private condo launches, the key point is that commission capture remains intact. The mix may shift, but the overall commission pool remains supported.

Figure 3: A rebound of MOP-eligible HDB flats is expected in 2026

Table 3: HDB MOP Pipeline (2025A–2028E)

Metric	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
HDB flats reaching MOP	8,000	13,500	15,000	19,500
YoY Growth	-38.9%	+68.8%	+11.1%	+30.0%
Cumulative 2026–2028 vs 2023–2025	48,000 units entering the HDB resale market, which is 28.1% more than the prior 3-year period (2023–2025)
Source: HDB, PropNex Research, data.gov.sg. Data as of 1 April 2026.

Table 4: About 13,500 HDB flats to reach minimum occupation period in 2026, rebounding from a low of 8,000 units in 2025

Town	2-room flat	3-room flat	4-room flat	5-room flat	Total
Bedok	409	0	757	274	1,440
Bukit Batok	187	34	0	0	221
Bukit Panjang	51	17	203	79	350
Geylang	136	183	0	0	319
Hougang	0	0	155	130	285
Kallang/Whampoa	0	85	158	0	243
Punggol	890	313	1,334	685	3,222
Queenstown	408	1,094	659	244	2,405
Sembawang	0	83	131	96	310
Sengkang	0	0	198	132	330
Tampines	0	244	1,162	727	2,133
Toa Payoh	218	340	800	236	1,594
Woodlands	0	72	100	0	172
Yishun	0	96	252	108	456
Note: Estimations may vary slightly due to different sources of data Source: 99.co.

The 2026 Launch Calendar is OCR-Heavy and Upgrader-Driven

Approximately 58.1% of 2026 new launch units are in the Outside Central Region (OCR / suburban area), up from 42.0% in 2025. This shift is deliberate: developers are positioning their pipelines to capture the wave of MOP-driven upgrader demand. The sell-out results of Rivelle Tampines and Pinery Residences validate this positioning.

Total available inventory, including unsold units carried over from 2025, remains broadly stable at approximately 16,597 units (2025: 16,931 units), providing PropNex with a resilient addressable market even in a year of lower new launch volumes.

Record 1Q26 GLS Bids Signal a higher floor for 2027 Launch Prices

URA's 1Q26 private residential price flash estimate showed a 0.3% QoQ increase, which is a moderation from 0.6% in 4Q25 but still reflects positive growth.

Five GLS sites (four private residential plots and one EC site) were awarded in 1Q26. Collectively, they add approximately 2,750 homes to the forward new launch pipeline. The private residential sites (excluding the EC site) collectively drew 21 bids across four private tenders. We also note that the EC site at Woodlands Drive 17, awarded to Sim Lian at a record land bid, would not be affected by margin pressure as it is exempt from the revised EC ruling.

More importantly for PropNex, land prices achieved in 1Q26 serve as a leading indicator of future launch prices when these projects come to market in 2027. Given that commissions scale with transaction value, higher launch prices directly translate into higher absolute commission income per unit.

Table 5: 1Q26 GLS Sites — Land Rates and Estimated Launch Prices

GLS Site	District*	Type	Est. Units	Award Date	Land Rate (SGD per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr))	Est. Launch Price (SGD psf)	Commission Relevance for PropNex
Dairy Farm Walk	D23 (OCR)	Condo	480	Jan 2026	962 (5.7% below Narra site)	$2,020–$2,200	Gradual seller pool; broadly in line with existing Dairy Farm benchmarks
Tanjong Rhu Road	D15 (RCR)	Condo	525	Feb 2026	1,455	$2,700–$3,100	First new D15 GLS in about 30 years; scarcity premium supports high average selling price (ASP) and commission quantum
Lentor Central	D26 (OCR)	Condo	562	Mar 2026	1,278 (Lentor estate record)	$2,450–$2,700	PropNex appointed across Lentor precinct; rising PSF floor directly expands per-unit commission
Dover Drive	D5 (RCR)	Mixed-use	625	Mar 2026	1,556 (2nd-highest RCR ever)	$2,830–$3,200+	First GLS in Dover-Medway; 31% land cost step-up vs prior Bloomsbury site in same precinct
Woodlands Drive 17 (Sim Lian)	D25 (OCR)	EC	560	Jan 2026	794 (record EC)	$1,750–$2,000	2,700+ MOP-eligible flats in North by 2027; no EC in Woodlands since 2016
Source: URA, Stacked Homes, Knight Frank. Data as of 31 March 2026. Est. launch prices based on analyst projections; actual prices subject to developer discretion. *OCR refers to Outside Central Region (suburban area), RCR refers to Rest of Central Region (near city centre), while CCR refers to Core Central Region (city centre).

Valuation

Put simply, the stars are aligning for PropNex over the next two to three years.

The HDB resale market is holding up well. Volumes are recovering, prices are edging higher, and record-breaking transactions in Bedok, Clementi, and the Central Area show that buyers remain willing to pay up for the right flat. With million-dollar HDB resale transactions on track to potentially surpass last year's record, PropNex stands to earn more commission per deal, not just more deals overall.

Looking ahead, the pipeline keeps getting better. The 2H26 GLS programme adds nearly 4,745 new private homes to the launch calendar, giving PropNex more project marketing opportunities across the suburbs, the city fringe, and even the prime Orchard belt. And with total available inventory staying stable at around 16,000 units, there is no shortage of transactions for Singapore's largest property agency to participate in.

The bigger picture, however, is the MOP wave. After a quiet 2025, approximately 48,000 HDB flats are set to unlock over 2026 to 2028 — each one a potential two-commission event for PropNex, first when the owner sells the HDB flat, and again when they buy their next home. This is a multi-year tailwind that is only just beginning to build.

Add in record land bids from 1Q26 pointing to higher new launch prices in 2027, and the earnings outlook becomes increasingly compelling.

Applying a fair P/E multiple of 22X to our forecasted FY2028E EPS yields a target price of SGD 2.70 for PropNex (SGX: OYY) by the end of 2028, implying 50.7% upside from the current price of SGD 1.79 as of 3 June 2026. We also estimate an average annual dividend yield of approximately 5.2% over the next three years.

Table 6: PropNex Earnings Summary and Target Price

PropNex	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
P/E Ratio (X)	19.8	17.4	14.6	14.6
Earnings Growth (%)	72.0%	8.4%	19.3%	(0.3%)
EPS (SGD)	0.0951	0.1031	0.1230	0.1226
DPS (SGD)	0.0950	0.0825	0.0984	0.0981
Dividend Yield (%)	5.1%	4.6%	5.5%	5.5%
Target Price (Fair P/E: 22X)	SGD 2.70
Current Price	SGD 1.79
Upside Potential	50.7%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. (historical); iFAST Estimates (forecasts). Data as of 3 June 2026.

Figure 4: PropNex share price vs EPS chart

Disclaimer: For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) and the analyst who produced this report hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.