What US intervention in Venezuela means for investors

While recent events may influence sectors such as energy and industrials, they are unlikely to have broad implications for the wider equity market in the long-term.

Joel Phua
Joel Phua09 Jan 2026 5384 Views
What US intervention in Venezuela means for investors

Minimal impact on broad equity markets 


On 3 January 2026, the US military captured Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro and flew him to the US where he faced charges for narcoterrorism. US President Donald Trump said the US “will run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.” While the forceful removal of a foreign head of government has sparked condemnation and global unease, equity markets reacted calmly. The S&P 500 closed 0.67% higher on Monday compared to last Friday’s close and is up 0.93% as of 8 January 2026.  Investors appear to be more concerned about factors such as developments in AI, the US labour market, and monetary policy, rather than the ousting of President Maduro.  

This is not entirely surprising, given that geopolitical events have historically had limited impact on markets in most cases. For instance, when the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June 2025 during the Iran-Israel conflict, the S&P 500 rose 0.96% the following day. Similarly, the S&P 500 gained 2.2% despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

"Liberation Day” was a rare exception, as the S&P 500 fell 4.8% in a single day following President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on global trading partners. This was because tariffs directly affect corporate earnings, whereas most geopolitical crises typically do not have a direct or lasting impact on company profits.

Looking ahead, we believe that the Venezuela situation will have little broad-based significance to equities but may continue to impact share prices of certain industries such as oil and defence. 

Geopolitical developments in Venezuela offer uncertain upside for oil stocks


US oil companies surged on Monday, after Trump said that US oil companies will “go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure–the oil infrastructure–and start making money for the country.” 

Chevron, currently the only US oil major operating in Venezuela, could benefit from securing a licence to expand its operations. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips may also stand to recover billions of dollars in assets that were seized by the Venezuelan government following the nationalisation of the oil industry in 2007. Oilfield service providers such as Halliburton and Schlumberger could benefit from contracts to rehabilitate Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. 

That said, significant political uncertainty remains surrounding Venezuela’s future leadership and the extent to which it would cooperate with US demands. Given the lack of stable governance, legal risks, and the high cost of rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, oil majors may be reluctant to undertake large-scale investments in the country. Moreover, a sustained recovery in Venezuela’s oil output could add to the existing global supply glut over time, putting downward pressure on oil prices and ultimately weighing on sector profitability. As such, we believe investors should be cautious about betting heavily on oil stocks based solely on Venezuela-related developments. 

Defence stocks also posted strong gains on Monday, driven by heightened investor expectations that the US might increase military involvement following the capture of Maduro. Although significant escalation appears unlikely in the near term, especially after the US Senate moved to block additional military action, the episode has nonetheless highlighted the strategic importance of increased defence spending and autonomy.  Renewed discussions in Washington regarding the potential acquisition of Greenland, including remarks that the military “is always an option”, have further heightened geopolitical risk concerns. Overall, global defence spending is likely to continue rising, providing a durable tailwind for the sector.

Table 1: Oil and defence stocks rallied after the US captured President Nicolás Maduro

One-day % change after US intervention in Venezuela (in local currency terms)

Defence

Lockheed Martin

2.92%

Northrop Grumman

4.38%

Rheinmetall

9.21%

Leonardo

6.25%

Oil

Chevron

5.10%

Exxon Mobil

2.21%

Halliburton

7.84%

Schlumberger

8.96%

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., iFAST Compilations.

Data as of 6 January 2026


Stay calm and stay invested 


As with most geopolitical crisis, the political situation in Venezuela is unlikely to have a lasting impact on equities as a whole. Investors should stick to their investment strategy and not let political uncertainty keep them out of the markets. 

To navigate 2026 with greater confidence, we invite you to read our market outlook, where we outline key themes, risks, and opportunities shaping the year ahead.

All materials and contents found in this site are strictly for general circulation and informational purposes only and should not be considered as an offer, or solicitation, to deal in any of the funds or products found/identified in this site. While iFAST Financial Pte Ltd ("IFPL") has tried to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent delays, omissions, technical or factual inaccuracies and typographical errors. Any opinion or estimate contained in this report is made on a general basis and neither IFPL nor any of its servants or agents have given any consideration to nor have they or any of them made any investigation of the investment objective, financial situation or particular need of any user or reader, any specific person or group of persons. You should consider carefully if the products you are going to purchase are suitable for your investment objective, investment experience, risk tolerance and other personal circumstances. If you are uncertain about the suitability of the investment product, please seek advice from a financial adviser, before making a decision to purchase the investment product. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The value of the investment products and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with the said research analyses or research reports, recipients of the report are to contact IFPL at 10 Collyer Quay, #26-01 Ocean Financial Centre Building, Singapore 049315, or by telephone at +65 6557 2853. Where the report contains research analyses or research reports from a foreign research house and if the recipient of such research analyses or research reports is not an accredited investor, expert investor, institutional investor or an ex-accredited investor, IFPL accepts legal responsibility for the contents of such analyses or reports to such persons only to the extent as required by law. Please note that only certain security(ies) herein are available to all investors, while the rest are only available for certain persons to invest in, such as Accredited Investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act) or one who invests at least S$200,000 (or its equivalent currency) per transaction. To qualify as an Accredited Investor, one needs to submit a declaration form and certain relevant supporting documents, according to iFAST’s prevailing policies and procedures.

Please read our full disclaimers on the website at ( https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsmone/policies/328125/investment-account-terms-&-conditions).

iFAST Financial Pte Ltd (IFPL) (registered address: 10 Collyer Quay #26-01 Ocean Financial Centre Singapore 049315, Telephone: 6557 2000) holds the Financial Advisers Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore ('MAS') to conduct regulated activities of advising on securities, marketing of collective investment schemes and arranging of any contract of insurance in respect of life policies, other than a contract of reinsurance and the Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the MAS to conduct regulated activities of dealing in securities and providing custodial services for securities. While IFPL has made every effort to ensure the independence of the report's contents, IFPL's nature of business is such that IFPL and its connected and associated entities together with their respective directors, officers and staff may be involved in providing dealing or investment-related services in the abovementioned securities, and have taken or may take positions in the securities mentioned in this report, and may also act as the principal for any buy or sell trades.