Intuit - The numbers still work

• We initiate coverage of Intuit with a BUY rating and a USD 519 target price, representing 62% upside in FY28.
• Intuit is a financial technology platform serving about 100 million consumers, small businesses, mid-market companies and accounting professionals. Its core products include QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, Mailchimp and ProTax. 
• The company owns recurring financial workflows that customers repeatedly return to: businesses use QuickBooks to manage daily operations, consumers use TurboTax during tax season, Credit Karma adds year-round financial engagement, and ProTax keeps accounting professionals connected to the platform.
• FY25 results show Intuit’s business remains firmly intact, with revenue grew 16% y/y to USD 18.8bn, accelerating from 13% growth in FY24, while operating margin expanding to 40.2% and EPS increasing 19% y/y to USD 20.15.
• Our investment thesis is built on three drivers. First, Intuit is earning more from the workflows it already owns, with both QuickBooks ARPC and TurboTax ARPU expanding over several years.
• Second, Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) allows Intuit to retain larger QuickBooks customers in the mid-market before they migrate to traditional ERP systems. 
• Third, while AI risk is real, we believe it is more likely to pressure the low-complexity interface layer than replace Intuit’s deeper role across tax filing, accounting, payroll, payments and consumer finance workflows.
• Although the latest 3Q FY26 result further supports our thesis, with management raising FY26 revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance, the stock faced a significant post-market selloff as investors focused on weaker tax-season volume trends, including a guided 2% decline in total TurboTax Online units and pressure in the most price-sensitive DIY filer segment.
• We view the current valuation as too punitive for a company still delivering double-digit revenue growth, around 40% operating margin, and strong free cash flow generation.
• Applying a fair 18x P/E to our FY28E EPS of USD 28.83, we derive a target price of USD 540, implying 62% upside. As such, we initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation.

Executive Summary

We initiate coverage of Intuit with a BUY rating and a USD 519 target price, representing 62% upside in FY28. The stock has been sold down as investors price in the risk that AI could structurally weaken its tax and accounting franchises. While we acknowledge that AI could disrupt simple workflows, we believe the sell-off appears over-discounted, as Intuit’s core value sits in high-trust financial workflows, where proprietary data, compliance execution, human expertise, and liability-backed trust are hard to replace.

FY25 results show Intuit’s business remains firmly intact. Revenue grew 16% y/y to USD 18.8bn, adjusted EPS increased 19%, and free cash flow reached USD 6.1bn. The latest 3Q FY26 result, released on 20 May 2026, further reinforced our view, with management raising FY26 revenue guidance to 13–14% growth and EPS guidance to around 18% growth, while TurboTax Live is expected to represent 53% of total TurboTax revenue despite pressure in low-end DIY filing.

Our investment thesis is built on three drivers. First, Intuit is earning more from the workflows it already owns, with both QuickBooks ARPC and TurboTax ARPU expanding over several years. Second, Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) allows Intuit to retain larger QuickBooks customers in the mid-market before they migrate to traditional ERP systems. Third, while AI risk is real, we believe it is more likely to pressure the low-complexity interface layer than replace Intuit’s deeper role across tax filing, accounting, payroll, payments and consumer finance workflows.

Overall, we view the current valuation as too punitive for a company still delivering double-digit revenue growth, 40.2% operating margin, and strong free cash flow generation.

Business Overview

Intuit is a financial technology platform serving about 100 million consumers, small businesses, mid-market companies and accounting professionals. Its core products include QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, Mailchimp and ProTax. QuickBooks anchors the business platform across accounting, payroll, payments, bill pay, financing and broader business workflows. TurboTax anchors the consumer tax platform through DIY filing, assisted tax and Full Service offerings, while Credit Karma extends Intuit’s consumer reach into credit, loans, insurance and money products. Mailchimp adds marketing automation capabilities for SMBs, and ProTax supports professional tax preparers through tax workflow software.

Following its August 2025 reporting reorganisation, Intuit now reports under two main platforms: Global Business Solutions and Consumer. Global Business Solutions contributed 59% of FY25 revenue and includes QuickBooks, IES, Payroll, Payments, Bill Pay and Mailchimp. The Consumer platform contributed the remaining 41% and includes TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax. Revenue is generated through subscriptions, usage-based services, seasonal tax filing, assisted services and referral-based consumer finance revenue.

Overall, Intuit is not built around one product alone. The company owns recurring financial workflows that customers repeatedly return to: businesses use QuickBooks to manage daily operations, consumers use TurboTax during tax season, Credit Karma adds year-round financial engagement, and ProTax keeps accounting professionals connected to the platform. And therefore, this workflow ownership forms the base of Intuit’s monetisation model, where the company can earn more from customers as more financial tasks move inside the ecosystem.

Figure 1: FY25 Revenue Contribution by Business Segment.

Table 1: Product Portfolio and Monetisation Model.

Segment	Key products	Revenue model	Focuses
Global Business Solutions	QuickBooks, IES, Payroll, Payments, Bill Pay, Mailchimp	Subscription + usage	Core SMB and mid-market platform
Consumer	TurboTax DIY, Live, Full Service	Seasonal transaction / service	Tax monetisation and refund access
Credit Karma	Credit cards, loans, insurance, money products	CPA / CPC / lead-based	Year-round consumer finance engagement
ProTax	Lacerte, ProSeries, ProConnect	Software subscription / tax workflow	Accountant and professional tax channel
Source: iFAST. Data as of 21 May 2026.

Revenue Composition and Product Portfolio

Global Business Solutions is Intuit’s largest and most recurring revenue base, contributing USD 11.1bn, or 59% of FY25 revenue. The segment is anchored by QuickBooks and monetised through subscriptions and attached services such as payroll, payments, bill pay, financing, IES and Mailchimp. We see this as the higher-quality engine of the group, as revenue is tied to recurring business workflows rather than one-off transactions.

In terms of the Consumer platform, it contributed USD 7.8bn, or 41% of FY25 revenue, across TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax. TurboTax remains the largest consumer product, contributing USD 4.9bn, or 26% of total revenue, through DIY filing, TurboTax Live and Full Service. Meanwhile, Credit Karma contributed USD 2.3bn, or 12% of revenue, through referral-based consumer finance revenue, while ProTax contributed USD 621m, or 3% of revenue, and supports the professional tax channel.

Overall, Intuit’s revenue mix is built around two different but complementary engines. Global Business Solutions provides the recurring workflow base, while Consumer remains more seasonal but highly monetisable through the ecosystem built around TurboTax and Credit Karma. Although Credit Karma’s revenue quality is more cyclical due to its dependence on credit conditions and lender appetite, it adds value by using consumer financial data to provide free credit scores, credit monitoring and personalised financial product recommendations.

Table 2: Intuit’s Core Product Portfolio Revenue Breakdown.

USD Millions	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25	% Rev	YoY
Global Business Solutions	6,460	8,038	9,533	11,077	59%	+16%
Online Ecosystem	4,438	5,759	6,892	8,302	44%	+20%
QBO Accounting	2,267	2,849	3,379	4,120	22%	+22%
Online Services	2,171	2,910	3,513	4,182	22%	+19%
Desktop Ecosystem	2,022	2,279	2,641	2,775	15%	+5%
Consumer (TurboTax)	3,915	4,135	4,445	4,870	26%	+10%
Credit Karma	1,805	1,634	1,708	2,263	12%	+32%
ProTax	546	561	599	621	3%	+4%
Total Revenue	12,726	14,368	16,285	18,831	100%	+16%
Source: Intuit, iFAST compilations. Data as of 31 July 2025.

FY25 Performance

Intuit delivered a strong FY25, with the company posted stronger revenue growth while still expanding margins despite continued investment in AI, assisted tax and IES. Revenue grew 16% y/y to USD 18.8bn, accelerating from 13% growth in FY24, supported by Global Business Solutions, deeper QuickBooks monetisation and a recovery in Credit Karma as credit card, personal loan and insurance activity improved.

Profitability also remained resilient, with operating margin expanding to 40.2% and EPS increasing 19% y/y to USD 20.15. Overall, we see this as a healthy quality check, as Intuit was able to scale new growth areas without sacrificing operating leverage. And this is especially important given that FY25 was a year of continued investment in TurboTax Live, Full Service, IES and AI-enabled workflows, while the broader software sector was facing AI disruption concerns.

In terms of free cash flow, the company ended the year strongly with FCF standing at USD 6.1bn, translating into 32.3% FCF margin. We believe such a strong cash positioning would allow the company greater flexibility to reinvest in product development, expand AI and assisted-service capabilities, and continue returning capital to shareholders.

The latest 3Q FY26 result further supports this trajectory, with management raising FY26 revenue guidance to 13–14% growth and non-GAAP EPS guidance to around 18% growth. Although revenue growth is expected to normalise from FY25’s stronger base, earnings are still expected to grow faster than revenue, supported by platform monetisation, operating discipline and continued margin expansion.

Overall, Intuit ended FY25 with a stronger base, and this was not a one-segment rebound, but a year where both the Business and Consumer platforms continued to contribute. Revenue growth accelerated, margins expanded, and cash conversion remained healthy, a solid foundation for the company to sustain double-digit earnings growth even as topline growth normalises.

Figure 2: Revenue Growth and Adjusted Operating Margin Progression

Table 3: FY2025 Consolidated Results.

USD Millions	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	12,726	14,368	16,285	18,831
Revenue Growth	33% y/y	13% y/y	13% y/y	15.6% y/y
Gross Margin	81.1%	78.1%	78.7%	79.6%
Operating Margin	35.4%	38.3%	39.3%	40.2%
Diluted EPS	USD 11.85	USD 14.40	USD 16.94	USD 20.15
Free Cash Flow	3,660	4,786	4,634	6,083
FCF Margin	28.8%	33.3%	28.5%	32.3%
Source: Intuit, iFAST compilations. Data as of 31 July 2025.

Table 4: Segment Operating Margins.

Segment Op. Margin	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Global Business Solutions	54%	73%	75%	76%
Consumer	63%	81%	79%	78%
Credit Karma	29%	26%	24%	37%
ProTax	70%	87%	87%	86%
Source: Intuit, iFAST compilations. Data as of 31 July 2025.

Table 5: Revised FY2026 Management Guidance.

FY26 guidance	FY25 result	FY26 Management Range	Growth y/y
Revenue	USD 18.8bn (+16% y/y)	USD 21.34 – 21.37bn	13–14%
Operating Income	USD 7.6bn (+18% y/y)	USD 8.78 –8.80bn	16%
Operating Margin	40.2%	41.0%	70 bps
EPS	USD 20.15	USD 23.8 – 23.85	18%
Free cash flow	USD 6.1bn (+31% y/y)	Not guided	-
Source: Intuit, iFAST compilations. Data as of 31 July 2025.

Industry Overview and Peers Analysis

Intuit competes across several markets, including SMB accounting, payroll and payments, mid-market financial management, consumer tax and consumer finance marketplaces. While these markets are competitive, we believe Intuit’s position is stronger than a simple product-by-product comparison suggests. The company’s advantage comes from workflow ownership, customer data, accountant relationships and product integration, rather than from pricing alone.

In SMB accounting, QuickBooks remains the anchor product. Xero, Sage and FreshBooks offer credible alternatives, but QuickBooks has a stronger position in the US, supported by scale, accountant-channel influence and deeper integration across payroll, payments, bill pay and financing. We do not view QuickBooks as a narrow accounting product. For many SMBs, it is becoming the financial operating layer where invoices, payroll, payments and accounting records sit in one system. That makes switching more disruptive than replacing a standalone software tool.

In mid-market financial management, IES competes with platforms such as NetSuite, Sage Intacct, Microsoft Dynamics, SAP and Oracle. These platforms remain strong for larger and more complex enterprises. However, Intuit’s opportunity sits in the lower mid-market, where businesses have outgrown basic QuickBooks but may not want the cost, disruption and long implementation cycle of a full ERP migration. We believe IES can compete because it starts from an existing QuickBooks relationship, existing financial data and a familiar workflow, which lowers adoption friction for growing customers.

In consumer tax, TurboTax competes with H&R Block, FreeTaxUSA, TaxAct, TaxSlayer, IRS Direct File and independent preparers. Price competition is strong and remain the major headwind at the simple-filer end, and we acknowledge that free or low-cost filing options will continue to pressure low-value DIY customers. That said, Intuit is better positioned in higher-value tax situations, where customers care more about accuracy, automation, expert support, convenience and penalty protection. This is where TurboTax Live and Full Service are important, as they allow Intuit to compete beyond basic DIY software and monetise more complex filing needs.

Overall, Intuit’s competitive position is strong in the sense where its products are embedded into recurring financial workflows. We expect competition to remain active across every category, particularly in simple tax filing, standalone payroll and consumer finance referrals. However, we do not believe these competitors fully replicate Intuit’s combined advantages in workflow integration, customer data, accountant distribution and trust-based execution.

Investment Thesis

Ecosystem Monetisation — Intuit Is Earning More from the Workflows It Already Owns

While Intuit has already built strong positions across QuickBooks, TurboTax and Credit Karma, the company has been increasingly monetising these existing customer relationships through higher ARPC, higher ARPU and stronger product ecosystem. This can be seen in QuickBooks, where Intuit is expanding from accounting into broader SMB financial workflows, and in TurboTax, where the business is monetizing from basic DIY filing toward higher-value assisted tax offerings.

Business Ecosystem: QuickBooks Monetises SMB Workflow Ownership

Global Business Solutions ARPC increased across the years, with FY25 growth ranging from 12% to 17% across different products. This suggests Intuit is improving product monetisation, not only through its core accounting software, but also through deeper adoption of payroll, payments, bill pay and financing. And as such, growth is increasingly supported by higher revenue per customer, rather than just subscriber additions alone.

Overall, we believe these attached services make the customer relationship more valuable and harder to replace. For example, a customer using QuickBooks only for accounting is easier to lose than one using QuickBooks across accounting, payroll, payments, bill pay and financing. As more financial workflows sit inside QuickBooks, Intuit captures more wallet share while raising switching costs.

Table 6: QuickBooks ARPC Expansion Shows Deeper Monetisation per Customer.

Global Business Solutions	FY22	FY23	FY24	FY25
QBO Advanced & IES Ecosystem	USD 2,957	USD 3,140	USD 3,299	USD 3,713
Online Ecosystem	USD 692	USD 778	USD 859	USD 980
Desktop Ecosystem	USD 1,064	USD 1,594	USD 2,298	USD 2,686
Source: Intuit, iFAST compilations. Data as of 18 September 2025.

Consumer Ecosystem: TurboTax Monetises Tax Trust, While Credit Karma Adds Data and Engagement

On the consumer side, TurboTax operates in a mature filing market, where total US IRS filing volume offers limited structural growth. In 3Q FY26, management guided for total TurboTax Online units to decline by around 2%, while TurboTax Online paying units are still expected to grow 2% and ARPU to increase by around 11%. Against this backdrop, we view TurboTax as less of a volume play and more of a monetisation story, with Intuit shifting users into paid, Live, Full Service and refund-related products.

Figure 3: IRS E-Filing Mix — DIY and Assisted Filing Volumes Remain Mature. 

The stronger monetisation from the existing tax base can be seen in the TurboTax total and paying ARPU, rising 12.3% and 5.6%, respectively, supported by higher-value product mix rather than filing volume alone.

Within TurboTax, TurboTax Live has become a more meaningful part of the franchise, rising from 15% of TurboTax revenue in FY20 to 41% in FY25. The latest FY26 guidance further supports this direction, with TurboTax Live expected to grow 36% and represent 53% of total TurboTax revenue. We view this mix shift as the core driver of TurboTax monetisation, as Live and Full Service allow Intuit to monetise confidence, complexity, expert review and accountability, where willingness to pay is structurally higher than in basic DIY filing.

That said, the TurboTax ARPU expansion was not driven simply through price hiking. According to Deutsche Bank and dbDataInsights survey, the observed pricing suggests FY26 Full Service adoption was partly promotion-aided during the tax-season promotional window. Yet, we see this as customer acquisition spending into assisted tax, but we note that future renewal at normalised pricing still remains the key proof point.

Figure 4: TurboTax Total ARPU and Paying ARPU.

Figure 5: 2025/2026 Observed TurboTax Pricing.

Source: dbDataInsights, Deutsche Bank Research, iFAST compilations. Data as of 29 April 2026.

 Table 7: TurboTax Online Product Mix Survey.

	2024	2025	2026
Online	41%	49%	25%
Live	47%	29%	19%
Full Service	12%	22%	56%
Source: dbDataInsights, Deutsche Bank Research, iFAST compilations. Data as of 29 April 2026.

Apart from stronger monetization, Credit Karma strengthens the Consumer platform by adding year-round engagement, consumer financial data and a lower-friction TurboTax acquisition funnel, which can be seen in 3Q FY26 earnings results, where TurboTax filers who started their filing experience in Credit Karma is expected to grow 54%. As such, we opine that Credit Karma serves as an important consumer funnel into TurboTax.

IES Expansion — Retaining Growing QuickBooks Customers while expanding into the Mid-Market.

Historically, Intuit has faced graduation risk as larger SMB customers became more complex and began evaluating mid-market financial management systems such as NetSuite, Sage Intacct, Microsoft Dynamics, SAP or Oracle. These are typically higher-value customers, with greater needs across reporting, controls, forecasting and workflow automation, thereby losing them would limit QuickBooks’ ability to move further upmarket.

Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) gives Intuit a stronger path to retain these customers before they migrate to traditional ERP platforms, as it targets businesses that have outgrown basic accounting workflows but do not necessarily want the cost, disruption and long implementation cycle of a full ERP migration. Therefore, we believe the IES proposition is to capture customers that need more functionality but still value speed, familiarity and lower adoption friction.

Apart from that, Intuit has a customer proximity advantage. For a business already operating on QuickBooks, IES is not a cold system sale or a disruptive platform replacement. It is a continuation of the existing workflow, built on accounting data, invoices, bank feeds, payroll records, payment flows and accountant relationships that already sit inside Intuit’s ecosystem. With that, we believe it gives IES a friction advantage versus traditional ERP for lower-mid-market customers that want more functionality without a full system rebuild.

Table 8: IES vs Traditional ERP Positioning.

Customer Need	Traditional ERP Challenge	IES Advantage
Stronger reporting	Longer implementation	Built on existing QuickBooks data
Multi-entity visibility	Higher cost	Lower adoption friction
Project profitability	Heavy system migration	Familiar workflow
Forecasting / controls	Complex deployment	Faster time-to-value
Workflow automation	External implementation work	Integrated with Intuit ecosystem
Source: Intuit, iFAST compilations. Data as of 21 May 2026.

Although IES was launched only in September 2024, early traction points to a higher-value customer cohort within QuickBooks, with the company reporting 23% mid-market customer growth and 40% mid-market revenue growth. Such momentum also continued into 3Q FY26, with QBO Advanced and IES revenue growing approximately 38%, while total IES contracts grew 37% q/q. Therefore, as QuickBooks customers grow larger, we expect them to carry materially higher revenue potential if Intuit can retain more of their financial workflows.

Table 9: IES Extends QuickBooks into Higher-Value Mid-Market Customers.

IES Mid-Market Performance	FY25
Mid-market Customer Growth	23% y/y
Mid-market Revenue Growth	40% y/y
Average Revenue per Contract	USD 27,000
Company Projected 3-year ROI	300%
Source: Intuit, iFAST compilations. Data as of 18 September 2025.

AI Risk Is Overpriced — Data, Compliance and Human Trust Make Intuit Hard to Replace

AI remains a real risk, as it lowers entry barriers (lower software feature-building costs), automates simple workflows and may shift users away from traditional app interfaces. As a result, simple tax filing, basic bookkeeping and generic financial guidance are likely to become more competitive over time.

However, Intuit’s core value does not sit only at the interface layer. Tax filing, accounting, payroll, payments and credit workflows require historical customer data, compliance logic, filing infrastructure, payment rails, audit trails, accountant relationships, expert review and accountability. A generic AI tool can explain a tax rule or suggest a bookkeeping entry, but it does not automatically file the return, run payroll, reconcile the books, manage compliance records or stand behind the outcome.

This is why we do not see AI as enough to structurally impair Intuit’s core businesses. TurboTax is valuable because it files returns, checks for errors and provides accuracy support, while QuickBooks stores years of accounting records, invoices, bank feeds, payroll data and payment history. These data and execution layers are harder to replicate than a better front-end interface.

AI + HI (human intelligence) also reinforces Intuit’s trust position. AI can improve data intake, categorisation, routing and routine support, but high-stakes financial workflows still require judgement, review and accountability, especially when errors can lead to penalties, audit risk or payroll disruption. Customers do not only want a faster answer; they want the work completed correctly.

Intuit is also responding through GenOS and its OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships, in which the company can use external frontier models while keeping customer data, domain-specific AI training, product economics and customer relationships inside its own environment.  As such, we believe this reduces the risk of external AI interfaces fully disintermediating Intuit.

To put everything together, AI remains a real competitive pressure, but we believe the current de-rating prices in too much structural damage. The risk is most relevant at the low-complexity layer, while Intuit remains strongest where data continuity, compliance execution, expert support and liability-backed trust matter most.

Table 10: AI Disruption Pressure vs Intuit Defence.

AI Disruption Pressure	Why Intuit Is Harder to Replace
AI can answer tax/accounting questions	Intuit completes the workflow through filing, payroll, reconciliation, audit trails and compliance records.
AI lowers software feature-building cost	Tax, payroll and accounting require accuracy, auditability, regulatory compliance and liability support.
AI may shift users to ChatGPT / Claude	Recent OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships extend Intuit into external AI environments while customer data and domain training remain inside Intuit.
AI automates simple workflows	AI can reduce manual work, but high-stakes tax and accounting still require expert review and accountability.
AI increases low-end competition	Intuit is most defensible where trust, data continuity and workflow execution matter more than price.
Source: iFAST. As of 21 May 2026.

Valuation appears oversold.

Similar to broader software counters, Intuit’s valuation has become overly punitive amid broader AI disruption fears. This selloff was further exacerbated after the latest quarterly result, despite the company continuing to deliver double-digit top-line growth and management raising FY26 revenue guidance. At the current level, the market appears to be pricing Intuit as if AI will structurally impair its tax and accounting franchises, while the company is still expected to deliver low-teens revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth.

Intuit generated USD 6.1bn in free cash flow at a 32.3% FCF margin, while operating margin stood at around 40% in FY25, above the Rule of 40 theresold. Unlike many software companies where AI risk directly threatens the user interface, Intuit’s products sit inside high-trust financial workflows where data continuity, compliance and accountability remain critical. As such, we believe the stock is currently trading as a structurally impaired software company.

Taking everything into consideration, we apply a fair P/E of 18 times, implying 62% upside for Intuit with a target price of USD 519.

As such, we initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and a target price of USD 519.

Table 11: Peers Valuation.

	INTU	HRB	PAYX	CRM	NOW
EV/FCF	16.6x	8.0x	17.7x	10.8x	22.3x
P/E	15.7x	6.7x	15.5x	12.7x	23.0x
Rev Growth	+15.6%	+4.2%	+5.6%	9.6%	+20.9%
FCF Margin	34.0%	19.5%	33.0%	34.5%	33.2%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., iFAST compilations. Data as of 21 May 2026.

Table 12: Valuation Table.

In Millions of USD	FY 2025	FY 2026 E	FY 2027 E	FY 2028 E
Revenue	18,831.00	21,000.54	23,322.17	25,872.47
Growth %, YoY	15.60%	11.52%	11.06%	10.94%
EPS	20.15	22.90	25.63	28.83
Growth %, YoY	18.95%	13.62%	11.95%	12.50%
Implied P/E	28.6	13.98	12.49	11.10
Fair P/E				18
Upside Potential				62.2%
Target Price				519
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., iFAST compilations. Data as of 22 May 2026.

Investment Risks

1.      TurboTax low-end leakage and pricing pressure

TurboTax remains exposed to price competition in simple DIY tax filing, as FreeTaxUSA, TaxAct, H&R Block, IRS Direct File and other low-cost options continue to pressure simple filers, particularly users with basic W-2 returns and low willingness to pay. Although Intuit is increasingly shifting monetisation toward paid, Live and Full Service offerings, the key risk is whether these higher-value users can be retained after promotional pricing normalises.

2.      Credit Karma cyclicality

Credit Karma remains exposed to lender appetite, credit approvals and consumer borrowing demand, as its revenue is largely tied to referral activity across credit cards, personal loans, insurance and other financial products. As such, a tighter credit cycle could pressure Credit Karma revenue even if TurboTax and QuickBooks remain resilient, creating volatility within the Consumer platform.

3.      Mailchimp execution and capital allocation risk

Mailchimp continues to lag the broader Global Business Solutions platform, and its recovery remains important given the size of Intuit’s acquisition. If growth remains structurally weak with limited cross-sell benefits into QuickBooks, it could raise further concerns around capital allocation, integration execution and potential impairment risk.

Key Takeaway — BUY

Intuit remains a high-quality financial workflow compounder, but its valuation has been heavily de-rated under broader AI disruption fears. We believe the market is pricing in too much structural pressure on its tax and accounting franchises, despite the company still delivering double-digit revenue growth, strong free cash flow generation and improving earnings guidance. The core thesis remains intact: Intuit continues to improve monetisation across QuickBooks and TurboTax through higher ARPC and ARPU, while IES provides an additional market expansion runway by extending QuickBooks into the lower mid-market before customers migrate to traditional ERP platforms.

While risks remain, including TurboTax promotional retention, Credit Karma cyclicality and IES execution, we believe these are already reflected in the current valuation. Applying a fair 18x P/E to our FY28E EPS of USD 28.83, we derive a target price of USD 519, implying 62% upside. As such, we initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation.

Declaration:

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report – including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions – has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) and the analyst who produced this report hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.