From the NFL to dog shows: Netflix's live strategy is more powerful than most investors realise

• Netflix's live programming strategy is gaining clear commercial traction, with marquee events drawing tens of millions of viewers and directly driving subscriber sign-ups and advertising revenue growth.

• The company is executing a disciplined approach to live rights, focusing on selective, high-impact events rather than costly long-term sports packages, helping preserve margin expansion.

• An expanding pipeline spanning global sports, niche categories such as dog shows, and new formats like The Breakfast Club live video podcast is broadening Netflix’s viewer base while strengthening both its subscription and advertising value proposition.

• Netflix shares have yet to recover from the post-Q1 selloff, despite no deterioration in underlying fundamentals. We maintain our USD 150 target price, implying 72% upside as of 27 May 2026.

Live programming is a meaningful growth catalyst  

In the week of 11 May, The Roast of Kevin Hart drew 13.5 million viewers on Netflix. Days earlier, the streaming giant made its live MMA debut with the Rousey vs. Carano fight, which peaked at nearly 17 million global viewers. These are the latest evidence that Netflix’s deliberate push into live programming continues to gain meaningful traction.

Over the past few years, Netflix has been leaning into live programming as a way to expand both engagement and monetisation. Unlike on-demand series, live events drive appointment viewing and attract incremental audiences who may not otherwise engage with the platform. Crucially, this is showing up not only in viewership metrics but also in subscriber acquisition and advertising momentum.

Management highlighted in its 1Q earnings call that World Baseball Classic — Netflix's first major regional live event outside the US — drew 31.4 million viewers and drove the largest single day of sign-ups in Japan. It also gave what it described as a “great shot in the arm" for Netflix's ad sales group in Japan.

While Netflix does not break out the specific contribution of live events to its advertising revenue, its ads chief Amy Reinhard told AdWeek earlier this month that live programming has been a key part of the ad business's success. That business remains on track to double to approximately USD 3 billion in revenue in 2026, making live events not merely a content strategy, but an increasingly important monetisation engine.

Critically, Netflix has been disciplined in how it approaches this category. Management has been explicit: the focus is on breakthrough events rather than expensive, long-term regular-season packages. This keeps the cost structure manageable, limits exposure to the kind of multibillion-dollar rights deals that have strained balance sheets elsewhere in the industry and ensures that live programming remains additive to — rather than a drag on — Netflix's improving margins.

Figure 1: Netflix’s operating margins are expected to keep expanding despite multibillion-dollar investments in live sports and entertainment rights

An expanding live content pipeline

The live slate for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 is growing in both scale and diversity.

On the sports side, Netflix expanded its National Football League (NFL) partnership in May, securing three additional games and extending the relationship through the 2029–2030 season. The new package builds on the existing Christmas Day games and adds the NFL's first-ever Thanksgiving Eve game, an international opener in Australia, and a Week 18 matchup, giving Netflix five NFL games across the season. This comes on top of previously announced FIFA Women’s World Cup rights for 2027 and 2031 in the US and Canada, as well as the highly anticipated heavyweight clash between Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua in the UK later this year.

The platform is also moving into live programming beyond sports and comedy specials. On 13 May, Netflix announced a deal with the Westminster Kennel Club to stream the Westminster Dog Show live from Madison Square Garden in February 2027. The event dates back to 1877 and is America's second-longest continuously held sporting event. While smaller in scale compared to the NFL, such events help diversify the live portfolio and expand reach into different demographic segments.

Perhaps the most strategically significant recent development, however, is the launch of The Breakfast Club as a live video podcast. Starting 1 June 2026, the highly influential morning radio show — known for its cultural commentary and celebrity interviews — will stream live each weekday on Netflix as part of an expanded partnership with iHeartMedia, marking Netflix’s first foray into a recurring daily live show format.

Unlike its traditional radio version, which includes commercial breaks, Netflix’s iteration will offer a differentiated viewing experience. Broadcast ad breaks will be replaced with exclusive bonus segments, behind-the-scenes footage, extended discussions, and original content, resulting in nearly three continuous hours of daily live programming.

By introducing recurring engagement, daily live programming such as The Breakfast Club could deepen the platform’s role in viewers’ everyday routines and strengthen the case for sustained subscriptions.

Post-Q1 sell off yet to reverse — upside remains compelling

We maintain our earnings growth projections and target price of USD 150 for Netflix, as the company continues to execute across both its subscription and advertising initiatives, with live programming emerging as a key incremental driver.

The stock has yet to recover from its post–Q1 earnings selloff, which we believe was driven more by elevated investor expectations and misinterpretation of management commentary rather than any deterioration in underlying fundamentals. As discussed in our previous note, Netflix beat on both revenue and operating income in Q1, grew its primary quality engagement metric to an all-time high, and maintained its full-year guidance for USD 50.7–51.7 billion in revenue and a 31.5% operating margin.

At the closing price of 27 May 2026, our USD 150 target implies approximately 72% upside. For investors who believe — as we do — that Netflix's live strategy is still in its early innings and that the ad business it feeds is only beginning to scale, the current price level continues to represent a compelling entry point.

Related article: Netflix Q1 2026 earnings: The selloff is overdone — we see 63% upside from here

Table 1: Projections for Netflix’s earnings

Netflix	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	2.5	3.2	3.9	4.6
Earnings Growth YoY	29.7%	26.8%	20.5%	17.5%
PE Ratio (X)	36.9	27.1	22.5	19.2
Target Price (based on a fair PE of 33X)				150
Upside Potential				72.3%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., iFAST estimates. Data as of 27 May 2026

Figure 2: Share prices are driven by earnings growth in the long run

Declaration:

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report – including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions – has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) holds a NIL position in the abovementioned securities. The analyst who produced this report holds a position in Netflix Inc.