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The Much Anticipated Correction
kfaw 19-05-2012, 01:02:47 PM



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So by now, all of us who are in equities must be cursing ourselves for staying in equities since Vesak Day. Why be so hopeful? What the hell are the angmos doing over there to caused my hard-earned money to evaporate?

That is why I said in my earlier post, "Don't be greedy!"
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heero 19-05-2012, 02:45:21 PM


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equities really are looking bad across all markets, but what about safe-haven play, i.e. gold, usd, jpy? any thoughts?
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kfaw 20-05-2012, 07:06:30 AM



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The Greek elections are 4 weeks away on June 17. The DOW was down last Friday. Asia must be very brave to be up on Monday. We have 4 weeks to wait before the final installment of the Greek story. DOW has been down about 5% in this correction. We might have another 5-10% downside. Are you prepared to stay in equities in the meantime or will you cut losses and re-enter at a lower price later.

The decision is all yours.
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churnmaster 20-05-2012, 01:17:31 PM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
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Welcome heero. Presuming you are holding SGD, then you dont worry abt safe haven. Its a very good currency to be in especially for all those in singapore.

USD rallied against most currencies incl SGD and the ultimate level to watch is 1.32 (the last peak) against SGD. If we break this resistance we head towards 1.35 and by then the equities would have breached the last bottom.

Gold has been heading lower ..... It made a peak at 1920 and subsequent peak below 1800. Its been taking support at around 1530 level below which the supports are at 1480 / 1375 / 1300.

JPY - I dont see it as a safe haven. Its more of a "short squeeze" play against the carry trade.

Keep writing .....
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churnmaster 20-05-2012, 02:11:56 PM



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Amazing market ... I mentioned 1295 as next support for S&P 500 in the afternoon and overnight the S&P 500 ends at 1295. Technical analysis is really coming handy here. This was the original level I was planning to reeneter but now I need to back out.

Now a SIMPLE (Simplicity is the flavor of the day) technique for all those who are still stuck with large equity holdings. Just analyse the performance of each fund in your portfolio during the last rally (i.e. Dec'11 to Feb'12). If the fund managed to scale back to the end July'11 level, its a reasonable performance and meets the first criteria. Next, compare the performance of each fund meeting the first criteria against their respective stock index (like STI for singapore funds) for the same period (i.e. Dec'11 to Feb'12). If the fund managed to beat the index by more than 2% during this period, then its a good performance and you can consider continuing with the same fund else look for the best performing fund within the same category meeting both criteria.

For the above analysis you can make use of the chart features in FSM. The above technique can also be used for fresh investments (at an opportune time) by existing / new investors.

A fund which cannot outperform during the upmove will do much worse during downmoves / sideways movement and doesn't deserve to be considered an active fund.
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kfaw 21-05-2012, 07:18:21 PM



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We are now in a consolidation stage. Nasdaq has dropped for 6 weeks in the past 7. Whenever the market is oversold, there will be a day or two or rallying, but this is the time for you to get out. Don't be conned to buy more. No smart investor one wants to buy in the face of the Greek elections in June. Only the unknowing investor dares to buy.
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shh 21-05-2012, 11:24:32 PM



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churnmaster :
Amazing market ... I mentioned 1295 as next support for S&P 500 in the afternoon and overnight the S&P 500 ends at 1295. Technical analysis is really coming handy here. This was the original level I was planning to reeneter but now I need to back out.

Now a SIMPLE (Simplicity is the flavor of the day) technique for all those who are still stuck with large equity holdings. Just analyse the performance of each fund in your portfolio during the last rally (i.e. Dec'11 to Feb'12). If the fund managed to scale back to the end July'11 level, its a reasonable performance and meets the first criteria. Next, compare the performance of each fund meeting the first criteria against their respective stock index (like STI for singapore funds) for the same period (i.e. Dec'11 to Feb'12). If the fund managed to beat the index by more than 2% during this period, then its a good performance and you can consider continuing with the same fund else look for the best performing fund within the same category meeting both criteria.

For the above analysis you can make use of the chart features in FSM. The above technique can also be used for fresh investments (at an opportune time) by existing / new investors.

A fund which cannot outperform during the upmove will do much worse during downmoves / sideways movement and doesn't deserve to be considered an active fund.


this sounds like a very good simple technique churnmaster, i have never tried this before! will give it a shot and let you know my findings!

only problem i can think of is that, there are nor real market indices for bonds apart from the FSMI which would be pretty indicative of the market in general, no?
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churnmaster 22-05-2012, 10:37:09 AM



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@shh - The technique is specifically good for equities. However, for bonds you can use the first criteria. I wont be surprised to see many bonds not recovering back to their end Jul'11 levels during the Dec'11 to Feb'12 rally and now in a retracement (downmove). You have to just get out of such funds into funds which meet the criteria ....

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kfaw 23-05-2012, 07:55:57 PM



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kfaw :
We are now in a consolidation stage. Nasdaq has dropped for 6 weeks in the past 7. Whenever the market is oversold, there will be a day or two or rallying, but this is the time for you to get out. Don't be conned to buy more. No smart investor one wants to buy in the face of the Greek elections in June. Only the unknowing investor dares to buy.

I hope those who were still in equities switched out yesterday during the relief rally. If not, I am afraid you will have to suffer more losses before there is another opportunity.
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churnmaster 25-05-2012, 10:53:28 AM



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What a week it has been ... S&P 500 took support at 1295 and pulled back to 1320 while in the east STI again back to 2780 level. Was hoping to see a pullback in STI to 2850 lvl but it has been absent so far. Someone rightly said East has decoupled from the West .....

Other markets started loosing steam much earlier and continue to do so. Lets see whats in store overnight in US markets. For now, its still a "Sell on Rally".

Have a great weekend and if you are interested enjoy the movie "the last day of lehman brothers" on youtube.
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kfaw 27-05-2012, 02:40:18 PM



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What will the next week bring? The trend is clearly downwards. Until the Greek elections, investors will be keeping their ears tuned to any news on QE3. But that is wishful thinking. To wish for QE3 is very selfish thinking on the investors' part. The FED is not responsible for your losses. They are trying to stimulate their own growth. However, QE1 and QE2 have had very minimal impact on their domestic growth. They are definitely not going to print more money without a positive impact on their economy, while risking inflation.
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kfaw 31-05-2012, 11:12:48 PM



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kfaw :
Both Indonesia and Vietnam is in bubble territory. They have defied the global slowdown and went up and up. Now they will pay the terrible price.



Today Indonesia is the worst performing of all Asian markets.

Btw, why is everybody so quiet?

last edited at 31-05-2012, 11:20:39 PM
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kfaw 01-06-2012, 09:03:17 PM



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kfaw :
What will the next week bring? The trend is clearly downwards./QUOTE]

Disappointing US jobs just reported by CNBC. Only 69,000 new jobs created. Previous month figures also revised down from 115,000 to 77,000 jobs. Spain bond yields are spiking up in recent auctions. The PERFECT STORM is coming.

Is Gold a safe haven? Not really. Soon gold will be sold by investors to pay for their losses in equities.

If you are still in equities, cut losses now. Switch into bonds, cash or USD. Things will get worse as we approach the Greek elections. Much worse.
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churnmaster 03-06-2012, 10:33:29 PM



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The forum is mostly quiet except for few like us sharing our views abt the markets.
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kfaw 04-06-2012, 09:12:32 AM



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churnmaster :
The forum is mostly quiet except for few like us sharing our views abt the markets.

It is so sad that many of the investors refused to sell or switch to safer asset classes. As I have mentioned many weeks ago, this is akin to a deer being caught in the headlights of an oncoming car. The deer will freeze and not run away. So sad.

Gold has broken out last Friday. I don't think it can last as investors need to sell gold to cover their losses in equities. What are your views on this?

last edited at 04-06-2012, 09:13:12 AM
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