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The Much Anticipated Correction
JX 14-03-2012, 05:52:52 PM



Joined Date: 29-09-2011
Posts: 38 times


churnmaster :
Well I am yet to reenter. I might ignore china funds for the time being and concentrate on singapore, US and tech. For US I prefer the Index fund which tracks the S&P 500.


Are you looking for any entry points for Singapore, US and tech? And are you looking at funds/stocks? I have the Henderson Global Technology fund for tech exposure but I'm still undecided over Singapore cos I have some stocks so not sure if I should buy into a Singapore fund
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shh 14-03-2012, 11:26:19 PM



Joined Date: 29-09-2011
Posts: 93 times

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i regret offloading some of my positions after my last post in mid Feb... i've missed quite abit of the rally as i was too chicken!!!!

oh well, think i might look to re-enter the market as things look like its getting better, and europe seems like its not going to disappear anytime soon..

any thoughts??
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churnmaster 15-03-2012, 04:06:34 PM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
Posts: 336 times


JX :

churnmaster :
Well I am yet to reenter. I might ignore china funds for the time being and concentrate on singapore, US and tech. For US I prefer the Index fund which tracks the S&P 500.


Are you looking for any entry points for Singapore, US and tech? And are you looking at funds/stocks? I have the Henderson Global Technology fund for tech exposure but I'm still undecided over Singapore cos I have some stocks so not sure if I should buy into a Singapore fund


JX :

churnmaster :
Well I am yet to reenter. I might ignore china funds for the time being and concentrate on singapore, US and tech. For US I prefer the Index fund which tracks the S&P 500.


Are you looking for any entry points for Singapore, US and tech? And are you looking at funds/stocks? I have the Henderson Global Technology fund for tech exposure but I'm still undecided over Singapore cos I have some stocks so not sure if I should buy into a Singapore fund


Yes I shall reenter all the above 3. For tech, even I use the henderson global technology though I would have loved to hv a fund which just tracks the NASDAQ composite. Reentry closer to 2950 level. US reentry closer to 1350 level and Singapore closer to 2970. For Sing I prefer the Aberdeen Sing.
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churnmaster 15-03-2012, 04:17:21 PM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
Posts: 336 times

Hey shh, why regret .... many regretted they dint sell out when the markets were dropping. You atleast sold to book your profits. You shall get better opportunity. Next time try to get in closer to 2950. Btw, if you are looking at entering china fund then shanghai composite has just corrected by more than 100pts in 2 days i.e. almost 4% from its intraday peak yesterday. Looks like it will try to retest the 2340 support level this week. If it gets there should be a good level to get in. However make sure dont buy everything on the same day.
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shh 15-03-2012, 08:48:36 PM



Joined Date: 29-09-2011
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churnmaster :
Hey shh, why regret .... many regretted they dint sell out when the markets were dropping. You atleast sold to book your profits. You shall get better opportunity. Next time try to get in closer to 2950. Btw, if you are looking at entering china fund then shanghai composite has just corrected by more than 100pts in 2 days i.e. almost 4% from its intraday peak yesterday. Looks like it will try to retest the 2340 support level this week. If it gets there should be a good level to get in. However make sure dont buy everything on the same day.


hey there churnmaster, i regret cos i could've held on longer and reaped more returns! but then again, if mkts were dropping, i don't think i would sell out so fast also... investor behaviour is indeed strange

i hope you're right about getting a better opportunity! hmmm... i quite like china as a whole, but the recent announcement about property seems to have spooked the market? i personally think that the mkt is ok, as its been announced several times before that they are not going to let the property mkt go through the roof (like sg ).. i quite like that they are FINALLY starting to focus more on sustainable consumption and not just exporting to the west..
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JX 16-03-2012, 11:00:01 AM



Joined Date: 29-09-2011
Posts: 38 times

hmmm S&P 500 has crossed 1400 points! I'm thinking if I buy a US fund now, will I be chasing market? or should I be waiting for correction. Seems like good news is coming out everyday!
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shh 20-03-2012, 01:01:43 AM



Joined Date: 29-09-2011
Posts: 93 times

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JX :
hmmm S&P 500 has crossed 1400 points! I'm thinking if I buy a US fund now, will I be chasing market? or should I be waiting for correction. Seems like good news is coming out everyday!


well, i've learnt my lesson from trying to time the market, and on hindsight which is of course 20/20, i shouldn't have done so. I've started a new RSP with them, and i'm just going to do some rebalancing every now and then when my portfolio goes out of shape or if markets dictate i do something!

i recall reading several articles on FSM about trying to time the market and i feel that perhaps they had some merit to their articles.. kinda sucks when FSM is right and i'm wrong!! Makes me feel like a fool sometimes, but then again, i'm sure nobody is perfect!
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papasmurfs 20-03-2012, 10:56:20 AM



Joined Date: 10-04-2007
Posts: 47 times

At the end of February last year, I switched most of my funds in FSM out to Nikko Shenton Bond fund. My reasoning is that the market had a good run in 2010, the US in deep trouble and the Europe is on the verge of collapse. The risk vs reward is very high at that point in time. Coincidently Japan's tsunami hit two to three weeks later. I began to collect back the funds as the market tanked. Now my portfolio is probably at its peak since I open the account in FSM in 2007. While many are clamoring to take profits, I bought more funds at end of February. My excuse is that the US is recovering, the Europe is not as risky as a year ago and the market is waiting for the correction. With the market flushed with cash and every body is waiting for the correction to come, the correction (if it comes) will be minimal before the sideliners rush in to board the last bus. The risk vs reward is extremely low. So if timing the market is bad, I welcome it. Having said that, using the unit trusts and funds for short term market timing is a bad idea to me. It does not matter if you are proven right later because the instrument itself is not design for it. The Japan tsunami is a case example where many jumped in to buy Japan funds hoping to buy cheap. Looking at that point in time, the market can go really wrong with all the Europe and US problem. Timing the market with hope is call gambling. Timing the market with study is called investment.
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churnmaster 20-03-2012, 11:48:24 AM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
Posts: 336 times

Completely agree with Papasmurfs. Timing is everything. Avoiding the big falls is more important than catching the bottom. Unfortunately this is true even for bond funds which display a positive correlation to equities. Btw, singapore do offer some very good high dividend yield stocks with low volatility. One of my favorites being Cityspring Trust with a dividend yield of 8 + and current value at a huge discount to the original offer price in 2008. As for funds. I was less bearish on US corporates than many of the EM corporates and as such invested in low cost US index fund tracking the S&P 500 and Henderson Technology fund as a proxy for Nasdaq starting in Oct 2011 and finally booked all the profit early march after Nasdaq hit 3000.
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JX 26-03-2012, 03:28:09 PM



Joined Date: 29-09-2011
Posts: 38 times

Unfortunately I'm not very good at timing the market. Have been caught out more than once. Nowadays I really adhere to the buy-and-hold philosophy

While on the topic of dividend paying Singapore stocks, one of my better investments is Cambridge Industrial Trust bought during the 2008-2009 crisis While the stock price has gone up considerably since then, I think the dividends are quite steady and price-wise quite resilient.
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churnmaster 28-03-2012, 04:10:45 PM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
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Extremely weak closing for Shanghai .. not just below 2340 but also below 2300. Next target 2200. Now will this drag STI towards 2900 is something to be seen.

Nifty already reeling under pressure and taking support at 5200.
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churnmaster 08-04-2012, 11:53:12 PM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
Posts: 336 times

Markets seem to be entering an interesting period.

Shanghai after retracing 67% saw support around 2245 and rallied back above 2300. Lets see if it can continue to rally from hereon.

HSI on the other hand retraced 25% and saw support at around 20400. Next support around 20100.

Euro Stoxx retraced almost 37% and looks like the retracement would continue with next support level around 2300.

S&P 500 the uptrend is still on with the next important support level at 1370. Below that the next level around 1340.

Nasdaq too has continued its uptrend with the next important support level at 3000. Below 3000 the next support at 2900.

Finally, STI continues its sideways movement and continues to be a buy on dip market for now. Next support level around 2900.

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churnmaster 11-04-2012, 01:58:23 PM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
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Nasdaq finally dropped below 3000 and S&P 500 below 1370.

Stoxx also pretty close to 2300 and should test the same in the next few days.Next support level at 2200.

HSI tested the 20100 support today and the next level 19250.

Shanghai just consolidating around 2300.

Lastly STI, still holding around 2950. However with almost 15 of the index stocks trading cum dividend, we should expect a drop over the next few weeks once dividend payout is over.

Btw, looking at the Top 20 vol stocks today morning, not a single index stock in the list and almost all the Top 20 stocks in green despite the index in red....
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churnmaster 02-05-2012, 09:41:10 AM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
Posts: 336 times

The AUD broke through the 1.28 support and the next support level at 1.27 followed by 1.25 and 1.2350. The trend continues to be down for now.

ASX 200 on the other hand has continued its upmove going past 4400.

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churnmaster 07-05-2012, 08:52:51 AM



Joined Date: 31-08-2011
Posts: 336 times

US markets have seen a reversal and its a "Sell on Rally" rather than "Buy on Dip" from here on. Same for the Singapore market. Two of the strongest markets in the recent rally. Other markets have already been in retracement mode for last few weeks.

Currency markets and oil markets which typically lead the stock markets have all been in risk off mode. Time to book profits / cut losses and avoid fresh exposure for the next few weeks.
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